That’s a very compelling strategy. Thanks for sharing.
Yes, indeed, thanks. Makes good sense to me.
Only the people who watch it. And they were never going to vote for Biden anyway.
Exactly no indicators do that. Well, unless trump wins but that wouldn’t be until 2025. And then-serious suckiness.
While I agree that polls this far out aren’t super-reliable, this is a worrying story. I think these young people are foolish, but I’m not sure how to change their minds.
I think people who are intimates with these respondents would have to consistently persuade them to vote for Biden. The intimate could say ‘It sounds like you prefer a [specific candidate with the minor party]. If you want you can contribute to them it could be a monthly thing you always do. But if you want to be politically involved in the election you could choose to vote for a [ mainstream candidate] on the side.’
Though I’d say this eye-to-eye with a grin and a shoulder pat, I think right here the person’s attention span would be gone.
No one is. Or more accurately, a few people are sure, but they are probably mistaken, as this pollyannaish statement from your link illustrates:
BIden may win, but nothing will “do BIden wonders.”
If Biden wins, it will be primarily due to the economy further improving.
Regarding the current blip where Trump improved in Trump-Biden polls that had been an unchanging tie all year long: In as much as it is due to Gaza, I think that will fade after the war, especially if Hamas is seen, as I expect, to have lost. It is not a matter of policy, but that, psychologically, the administration winding up on the winning side would help.
So, you can’t change their minds, but maybe they will change it on their own. The Democrats can only win as the party of optimism, and with luck, events will fit there.
In general, people do vote the way most people around them vote. So it is a good idea to let people around you, who like you, know who you will vote for – without making them feel looked down on, or that that they need to justify themselves. Justifying oneself locks in a viewpoint. That’s one reason why there are few to no persuadable voters here.
I’ll extend this just a bit. But IMO it’s the bit that will decide the election.
People who are around people who vote, vote themselves. People who don’t know anyone who votes, generally don’t vote. And from a social / peer group perspective, there’s no functional difference between someone who votes but never mentions it, and someone who doesn’t vote. They both look the same way to others.
Wearing your “I voted” sticker proudly on polling day is about 6 months too late. Start now telling your circle that
- You always vote in every election.
- It does matter.
- It is easy enough.
It’s vitally important to you that you vote; you couldn’t look yourself in the mirror if you didn’t. - In the days or weeks that voting is open where you are, there is literally nothing anyone can say or do that is more important than actually getting their vote in.
Keep repeating these messages. Early and often. That is what will get the lazy, the disaffected, the hopeless, and the utterly disgusted folks out to make their voices count.
That article is distressing. These kids don’t have a clue about the reality of how politics works and how life works. “He made promises and didn’t deliver, so we’ll end his career! That’ll show him!!” Yeah, that will show him. Right. 
Learning to decide between two poor choices with no third option is actually a pretty advanced cognitive skill that is not easily learned even over decades of adulthood. And if there is a “do nothing” option, then that is by far the most attractive of the three. Even if do-nothing is quite obviously logically tantamount to one or the other active choice.
Witness all the bickering about trolley problems in all their forms, lots of people really see a huge gulf between doing something to cause X and doing nothing which inaction causes X.
Young people who’ve always had lots of options in so much of their day-to-day living in a consumer economy are also, I think, frustrated and put off when, on Election Day, they have two somewhat unappealing alternatives. Do I wish they could see how much, much, much better Biden is than Trump, for themselves and for the country, and vote accordingly? Of course. But it seems that’s not where many of their heads are at.
There’s a big enthusiasm gap right now because its still so far to the election next year. The MAGAs are fired up because Trump has been campaigning for what, a year now? Far, far earlier than normal. I would expect the Democrats’ enthusiasm to increase as Biden’s real campaign starts, and as we move closer to next November. I wonder if the MAGAs can keep up this frenzy for that long though? Maybe, but it must be exhausting to be full in bore campaign supporter mode for a year already, and then and to keep that going for another year? They may be maxed out already. Maybe this is just optimism talking, but I’m trying really hard to not be in panic mode every day from now until next November. I mentally just can’t do that to myself.
You also need to factor in the graft effect. Since what really matters is how much money the candidates actually have to spend on getting elected (as opposed to pocketing it or spending on lawyers) you should probably reduce the GOP funding totals by about a third.
State GOP committees are also going bankrupt left and right.
So has Biden. See:
As can be seen in my link, Biden’s campaign has spent $44 million on ads, and Trump’s only $37 million.
What you wrote above did give me pause.
While Trump is now ahead in the horse race, a lot of people smarter than me predict he will lose. And while a second Trump term would be more dangerous than the first, there are examples of authoritarian presidents worse than Trump failing to consolidate power and being followed by someone better. I’m now reading a book that, without in the least minimizing the badness of having an authoritarian president, gives perspective when compared to our situation:
Again, Trump is the least likely person to become a dictator simply because he has no support among federal employees, the military, the State Department, etc. His second term will be like his first: He’ll try to do something, and it will be immediately leaked, the press will dump all over him, spooks will come out to denounce him, etc.
The person who can become dictator is the one who has the military and bureaucracy on his side, against the people. Dictator wannabe’s always have some kind of power faction behind them. Generals, the elites, judges, whatever. Trump is pretty much on his own.
The real risk of a Trump presidency is that it will continue and enhance the divisions that are already tearing at the fabric of civil society, and that his next term starts as a lame duck, so none of the movers and shakers in Washington are going to do jack squat for him. So we risk four years of chaos and people screaming at each other, not a dictatorship. On the other hand, it’s hard to think of another leader who can calm things down. Nikki Haley, maybe.
False
I wouldn’t say no support. He has more support than he should for a person who actively hindered and even in some cases tried to partially dismantle those agencies. See how his toadies at the IRS have caused problems lately.
But I agree with the rest of your point.
Probably.
Yes, he doesn’t have the ability to actually become a dictator. He’ll do plenty of damage trying, but there is too much standing in his way.
Haley is more rational but she has advocated some extreme positions in the past so I don’t know how calm she’d make things. She only appears moderate when put next to the extra loony folks like Trump or DeSantis or Ramaswamy.
I’m with you on the dangers that Trump would pose if he managed to get another term.
I am actually scared by polling of young people. Maybe if it was this alone I could dismiss it but same day I had heard about this -
That age group has 20% believing the Holocaust is a myth and another 30% saying they neither agree or disagree.
Beyond Trump getting re-elected … we are doomed.
If biden wins, it will be because the choice is Joe Biden or trump- and thus the end of Democracy as we know it.
There is no “choice C”.
As we get closer and closer, voters will realize this, and Biden will go up in the polls.
Joe Biden is not a “poor choice”. He has done quite well so far.
No, they think there is an alternative, a third choice. Which is why that Kennedy asshole is polling so well.