As the lady said…We Need A Little Christmas.
Googling:
Democrats disarray
and
Republicans disarray
and limiting to the last year, I am seeing a lot more major media stories about Republican disarray. This ratio has nothing to do with cliches, or with mainstream media being in the tank for a particular candidate. It has to do with the Democratic party being united around Biden and Jeffries to a greater extent than the Republican party is united around Trump and the House speaker of the month.
I expect the GOP to fully unify around Trump when he gets all the delegates needed for nomination (or a bit before). Then the papers I read will stop saying that the GOP is in disarray, because it will no longer be true.
It may be that, from an English composition POV, there are too many mainstream news stories with the word disarray, or similar, in the lede. But, if true, it has nothing serious to do with Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election.
I see your point.
In 2014, despite appearances, the Democrats really WERE in disarray, where it mattered — the long-term ground game in local and state races (state legislatures with gerrymandering power, and Midwestern local races where a failure of ears on the ground would doom Hillary soon thereafter). The appearance of national-scale unification behind an “inevitable” candidate masked real doubts where it counted.
This time, the warnings aren’t being ignored. You can be sure that Biden will visit Wisconsin several times over the coming year. It might not be enough.
I tend to think the media only errs a little toward doom and gloom. They’ve been right to highlight recent appalling poll numbers. Their erring is more about how accomplishments are framed — rather than simply “Biden succeeds at X, Y, or Z,” it’s nearly always “Public fails to give Biden credit for x, y, or z,” so it becomes a vicious cycle/self-fulfilling prophecy.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/muslim-americans-face-abandon-biden-dilemma-then-who-2023-12-*02/“We don’t have two options. We have many options,” Jaylani Hussein, director of Minnesota’s Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) chapter, said at a press conference in Dearborn, Michigan, when asked about Biden alternatives.*
No, you have only two options- Joe Biden or trump who would like to round you all up and put you in camps.
These two headlines appeared side by side in the New York Times online today. (Not linked.)
The Fed’s announcement sent stock prices soaring, with the Dow hitting a new high.
and
House Approves Biden Impeachment Inquiry as G.O.P. Hunts for an Offense
Republicans pushed forward with a formal investigation even though a yearlong scrutiny of President Biden turned up no evidence of high crimes or misdemeanors.
There were moments when there was “no way back” for the GOP. One happened when Liz Cheney was ousted from leadership. At that point no opposition to Trump in public was allowed. It was a sort of wait and see situation. Then when the 2020 election gave the house to them they confirmed that they need to be with Trump for the next two years. What they were doing, nobody knew. Durintg 2023 the Trumpian measures were applied. It was a bit chaotic. Then with Mike Johnson it became the united front. With this vote, there is no way back. The old GOP may reshape itself. But not until 2025-2027, the first two years of the next presidency.
The actual impeachment documents won’t appear this fall of 2025, as it will not get anywhere in the senate. But it will get some press however.
The US broad market is up 23% and within 3% of the all-time high that it reached before the inflation shock. Inflation expectations are dramatically lower, with the Fed now saying they expect to cut rates 3 times in 2024. The 10yr yield fell below 4% overnight (it hit 5% two months ago). But while inflation falls, we still get a strong retail sales number this morning.
Even Fox News can’t spin this with idiotic stories of $90 turkeys. Inflation is dropping while the economy keeps chugging along. I hope this holds up through the election, it really couldn’t look better.
Another positive - Biden has been raising a lot of money. Despite all the noise from Trump, he is behind the Dems in fundraising.
Yes, they can. They call it The Big Lie because it is, indeed- a lie.
America’s economy is terrible! Crime is out of control! Open borders! Expect to here those lies over and over. In fact I just got a FB ad from Mike Garcia, my local MAGA Rep (who won his election by about a hundred votes or so) more or less making all of those claims.
In fact polls show the American public are not happy with the way Biden is handling the economy- which means the Big Lie is working.
I’m perfectly aware that they have been lying and succeeding. That has been the overriding theme of this failing democracy over the past three decades. The point I was making is that it’s becoming so obvious that the economy is doing well that this particular lie is going to be impossible to sustain - it’s not like people aren’t going to notice that their retirement accounts are doing well, that mortgage rates are dropping, that prices aren’t going up.
I’m going to be in the market for a new car in 2024. The other day, I was thinking I should wait until at least the summer, since the Fed is talking about lowering interest rates.
I predict that, when I buy a car in June or July, I will be part of a surge in new auto sales.
lowering interest rates is going to make it a good time to spend money.
The stabilization of inflation has been felt in practical terms too. I am used to the $250 a week grocery bill now, so if it doesn’t keep going higher, then the raise I just received for next year is going to give me more spending power.
I for one am looking forward to having some disposable income.
For me, the economy hasn’t been this good since before Covid hit. And, of course, trumps supporters always deflect any responsibility for the governments response to Covid from him. But, as far as I’m concerned, he totally dropped the ball on that, and was the cause of the runaway inflation we had to endure.
I don’t see how Biden doesn’t get credit for how things are going in the minds of most voters once the elections come.
Because they don’t make the overt connection. If there’s a flood, people will see him visiting them, and hear about money and supplies being sent there. But something like the economy needs to be broken down into “how does this help me” for people who aren’t focused on politics or just don’t always understand the economic bigger picture (like me).
It really isn’t, particularly among people who start with “BIDEN BAD” and then interpret reality in whatever way supports that assertion, no matter how tortuous the process.
Well, except the one indicator of inflation and interest rates… if you ignore the two indicators of inflation, interest rates, and job growth… if you ignore the three indicators of inflation, interest rates, job growth, and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope…
Those aren’t the people that are trying to be won over in a campaign by the Democrats.
You want to motivate the left to vote and the undecided (or swayable) people to vote and vote for you.
The “never vote D” folks aren’t worth wasting effort on.
You’re probably right, but I’m just not so sure any more. It’s amazing the apocalyptic bullshit people were fed, prior to the election, that would occur if Biden was elected. “They’ll calm down once they see what nonsense that was,” was my thought.
And yet, they did not. They have since been told that society is now collapsing around their ears and everything they value is under assault, soon to be destroyed. Just as predicted. And they agree!
Again, with kitchen table, economic issues, maybe it’s different, and you’re probably right. You’d think so! But I’m just not sure anymore what level of cognitive dissonance causes people to actually abandon the bullshit. We haven’t reached it yet, anyhow.
Moriarty is right about the facts, but that doesn’t matter, because Love_Rhombus is right about the way people vote.(Which is why I bolded his comment)
Moriarty gives us facts— his personal budget decisions about his car purchase, based on the stuff which we Dopers love: facts, and intelligent analysis.
But most people in the world don’t to any budget planning at all…they don’t know the facts and can’t analyze their own spending. They live on impulse. (think about all those articles claiming that half the country is only one paycheck away from bankruptcy).
These people don’t care about “the economy”; they don’t care about dry statistics, interest rates, inflation rate , etc. These are abstract concepts which they don’t understand .So they rely on FoxNews to explain them. And if Fox says Bidenomics is bad, then that’s the truth, the final verdict
So saying “it’s the economy, stupid” is nice for professors of political science, while they try to convince themselves that Biden will win because of the economy.
But the real issue is not how the economy is performing–it’s how people THINK the economy is performing.
And Foxnews tells us what to think: Biden has ruined the economy, because he only cares about enriching himself and Hunter. Facts are irrelevant.
.Trump will win the election.
Or, they look at their bills and expenses. Are things less pricey? Do they have more of a comfortable cushion in the bank? Those are the important numbers. It’s not a lack of concern. It’s a lack of applicability to their own lives. Where’s Katie Porter’s whiteboard when we need it?
Yes, this.
You said this in the leadup to the 2020 election too. What on Earth makes you at all confident in your predictive ability? Sounds to me like a wild guess from someone with a bad track record in guessing.
It continuously boggles my mind that so many continue to lack the humility to recognize that they’re not prophets or seers. You don’t know. I don’t know either. Any assertion about the election at this point, by anyone, is a guess.
If someone has a low opinion of Donald Trump but also thinks Trump’s economy was better than Biden’s, they aren’t going to change their mind on that — because it is already made up. This isn’t to say Democratic messaging is certain to fail. But Democratic politicians have to focus on repeating economic messages swing voters already believe, such as that Trump cares about the rich, not the middle class.
I’m stealing this idea from an Atlantic article released yesterday: