Do you think the “I’ll probably vote for Trump, unless he’s a convicted felon” cohort falls into this category?
Overall, I like the buckets you identified.
I disagree. The answer to that question is just as, well, questionable as any other answer. Planning to vote and voting when the time comes are two vastly different things. Especially when the planning and the doing are many months apart.
What campaign messaging? That’s the part that gives me pause. Biden isn’t actually campaigning yet, being busy running the country and all. I wouldn’t be surprised if the White House has determined that doing so now on a large scale would be a waste of money. So is that wrong? Will campaign mode when it comes make a difference at all? I think it almost has to. Whether enough is the question, of course.
I’m just a bit instinctually skeptical of “this poll in March is a strong indicator of Trump winning.” Maybe I’m wrong and that’s a reaction to the thought of a significant number of Biden voters in 2020 voting for Trump now. But there it is.
I think he is now. When he went down to the southern border to give a speech on immigration reform at the exact same time as Trump, that seemed like a clear campaign effort.
Biden even directly addressed Trump in his speech. I’m not sure when campaigning started but it seems in full swing now. Maybe that was the start.
Could very well be. But it’d still be early in the process, IMO, which still goes to my point.
I haven’t seen that polling. I’ve seen '“If Trump is convicted, I believe he’s unfit for the Presidency.” I assume when November comes, those people will still vote for him, fit or unfit. Because “Biden is a disaster” or some such bullshit.
Maybe I’m misremembering, but I thought I recalled a few polls that indicated Trump loses their vote if convicted. Not that they’d necessarily vote for Biden, but a felony conviction was a bridge too far.
The poll also shows that
Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.
Why shouldn’t that be troubling?
If we are going to take the position the polls are overstating Trump support isn’t it just as likely they are overstating Biden support?
And aren’t a lot of the 30-50% of Republican primary voters rejecting Trump actually Democrats and Independents who are crossing over for just that reason?
The longer this goes on and the longer the media pushes the idea Biden can’t get any traction the less appealing he will be to independents, non-white voters w/o college degrees and voters under 45. And that will become a huge problem if it continues to be hand waved away as being too early to worry about.
The fact that there are people still stupid enough to vote for tRump, or even stupid enough to stay home on Election Day, tells me this country has failed. Completely. Time to burn it down and start over. I’ve had it.
I remember there were a bunch of people in January a few years ago who felt the same way.
Everything is troubling. But there’s no point in being chicken little this early. The Biden team has good political strategists and they will execute a solid political campaign. The Trump team is full of malevolent, incompetent brown-nosers. In the coming months, especially starting in the summer, I expect the Biden team (and allies) to ensure every American (most of whom haven’t been paying attention) to know every insane and demented thing Trump has said recently, and every bad thing a court of law has said about him.
I’m not saying that Biden is certain to win, I’m just saying I’m not going to spend my time worrying right now. That does nothing to help anyone. And statistically, there’s no reason to worry any more than normal right now.
Re: the economy, I wonder if we have a mean / median problem. The economy seems to be doing pretty well. Income inequality has increased, though, and housing and education costs have far outpaced inflation, so the good economy isn’t really benefiting people as they might want.
A worse economy would be worse, but I kind of feel like the nature of the economy is bad for Biden no matter how the stock market and other traditional measures are doing. Not that he can do anything about that in the short term.
Democrats continue winning election and Trump continues underperforming his polling in primaries. If either of those change i might start to slightly worry. I don’t think Biden is in any trouble at all right now.
Y’know, that’s a terrible way to cheer somebody up.
I’ll try better next time.
Progressives may dislike this, but:
To say nothing of grifters skimming every possible dime from the campaign donations.
Israel and Palestine, and his age aside:
Dislike what, the article? What do you expect them to say? He should lean more left?
Could you imagine them saying that? Unfortunately, the Progressive Left has no leverage. I understand that Biden is in a unique position when it comes to MAGA and the far right, and has a difficult time getting things done because of them. I know the economy is doing well and all, but considering some people have to work three cruddy jobs just to get by, couldn’t he have done a little more to raise the minimum wage? Maybe he should just run as Biden.
Nonsense. Nobody is voting based on few tweets where either Trump is destroying democracy and vetoing…everything. Or tweets where Biden stutters. people that bother to show up at the polling place rarely change their mind from election to election.
The New York Times poll is nonsense? Or having concerns about their findings is nonsense? Not sure what you are getting at.
That poll shows Biden only has support of 87% of his 2020 voters and 10% of them are planning to vote for Trump. You do realize independents have a tendency to switch parties, right?
Also, that is not the first poll to suggest some voters are concerned about Biden’s ability to lead because of his age. I would agree that attitude is nonsensical but the media keeps hammering that angle while ignoring DJT’s potential cognitive issues. No real surprise that could influence some independents either.
None of the things you mention are discussed in my post you replied to so it’s not clear to me what you are saying is nonsense.