Great example of the worst kind of DC journalism – taking a few anecdotes from a few random people and elevating that to “Democrats in disarray!” (and it’s always the Democrats).
Democrats are always in disarray, according to The Hill, Axios, and their like. And it’s always easy to find Democrats who are worried. We’re Democrats; we’re always worried.
“I’m not a member of any organized political party…. I’m a Democrat.”
“Democrats never agree on anything, that’s why they’re Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they’d be Republicans.”
Will Rogers, a century ago.
The NY Times poll, as well as many, are likely to have more systematic errors year after year. The voters are hareder to reach. Maybe only angry voters agree to take the poll? In any case, the only “poll” with big numbers of voters we have is the 2022 election. The GOP barely won a majority.
To be fair, Republicans have had plenty of press about disarray lately, mostly thanks to the House. But the headlines about the Michigan (?) GOP aren’t bad either.
The different spirits of the two are like the contrast between the two fraternities in Animal House.
Particularly the initiation scene, fun toga line dance v. hooded masters paddling Jockey-clad hineys.
Long, long ago I read a piece, the difference between Democrats and Republicans with observations like, Democrats read their porn alone at home. Republicans form decency committees and read theirs in groups.
The other one I remember is, Democrat boys date Democrat girls. So do Republican boys. They intend to marry and settle down but want to have some fun first.
Democrats fall in love, Republicans . . . put on their gimp mask and get in the box.
Jeepers, it’s an echo chamber in here. If you folks can’t see with your own eyes that the man looks and sounds more than four years older than he did four years ago, I don’t know what to tell you.
And people keep arguing about whether there’s CURRENTLY obvious cognitive decline, ignoring the more basic point that being healthy at 81 is no guarantee of being healthy at 85. It’s not at all irrational to feel that’s too old to handle the hardest job in the world.
Nor is it irrelevant to be having this discussion at this time. There’s no way to prevent Biden from getting the nomination at this point, but it is certainly possible for him to withdraw from the race voluntarily. The more Democrats express concern about the issue, the more likely it will be that he could be persuaded to do so.
If you can’t see with your own eyes that every President looks and sounds more than four years older than they did at the start of their term, I don’t know what to tell you.
Despite all of this … it is yet more important that Trump not win the general. Vastly more important.
There’s no way to prevent Biden from getting the nomination at this point, but it is certainly possible for him to withdraw from the race voluntarily. The more Democrats express concern about the issue, the more likely it will be that he could be persuaded to do so.
This summarily cedes the Presidency to Trump.
This is just denialist handwaving. Of course you’ll find some weird results if you drill deeply enough into the crosstabs of any poll.
The lesson there is that you should never get too worked up about any single poll, even one run by a highly reputable organization like the NYT, Democrats shouldn’t worry because Biden is trailing in this poll, we should worry because he’s trailing in MOST of the polls. And also because the White House’s plan to deal with that appears to be to keep doing what they’re doing, because “polls are dumb hurr hurr”.
Yeah, but this one had a lot less margin for error than the others to start with.
Article talking about the “double hater” phenomenon - voters who dislike both Trump and Biden:
I see it perfectly fine. The Presidency historically does that to people. Like it or not, though, the choice comes down to Biden or Trump. One will destroy democracy in this country, the other will not. If Biden were to step down after the party voters have spoken, the other camp will pound the drum about how he’s a coward who refused our dynamic candidate – after all, he campaigned from his basement last time, didn’t he?
The goal is to defeat Trump. Biden, for all his age, has the best chance to do that.
There are 300 million Americans who aren’t 81 and don’t have 91 felony charges either.
It’s as if…those are our only two choices.
And exactly how many of those 300 million Americans are both running and have a chance of actually winning the election?
They are in this election. No amount of hand-wringing will change that.
Biden is running because the incumbent nearly always runs. Trump is running because the GOP belongs to him now.
It was always going to be this way.
The only universe where Biden doesn’t run is a universe where the GOP kicks Trump to the curb and goes back to having at least a veneer of respectability. We don’t live in that timeline. We live in the timeline where a former president hawks gold sneakers and NFTs.
Obviously it goes without saying that the top priority has to be beating Trump.
But:
Biden is currently losing the race.
A large majority of Americans are concerned about his age, a concern which he can’t do anything to alleviate.
Putting those facts together, it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest that maybe another candidate might have a better chance of beating Trump, or that Biden might be persuaded to act in the best interests of his country and party.
I’ve said more or less this several times. People don’t want to hear it. I never know if it’s partisanship or just the broader cultural denial of aging and of death. Biden is doing GREAT for his age. It’s really quite amazing to be not only president, but a good one, in one’s early 80s. It’s only a very small percentage of his age cohort who could do this: my dad’s around the same age and in excellent mental and physical health, but he wouldn’t have the stamina for the job. He’d be able to manage about a combined three or four days a week of being President, and I would be lobbying hard against his running for re-election. Biden clearly has good genes and good habits.
A hard, cold, actuarial look at the situation, even accounting for Biden’s long-lived parents, would assess the risk of Something Bad happening in the next four years as quite high.
Still, I’d rather two good years of Biden followed by two years of chaotic compensation for a seriously ill president than three minutes of the Other Guy at the helm, so there’s that.
No, for all intents and purposes it’s simply impossible. If Biden resigns from the race at this late date, Trump is just much more likely to win, his legal problems notwithstanding. Harris doesn’t have a strong enough preexisting following and not enough native charisma to rapidly build one. There is also no one else waiting in the wings who is better positioned. If you’re concerned with Biden’s looming cognitive decline (which I agree is a real potential issue at his age, though not a guaranteed one) the best you can hope for is that he somehow manages to gut out a win and then resigns in a year or two if he must.