Man you can just feel the lack of enthusiasm, can’t you? /s
Maybe Trump can convince Bush to do an event for him? Ha ha ha ha ha ha!
The DNC has released a song about Trump’s takeover of the RNC. I haven’t listened to it, but it has to be better than Lara Trump’s song.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4564492-dnc-releases-song-panning-rnc-counter-lara-trump/
The impact of Biden having more money than donald is that Biden can do more advertising.
The latest ad is seeking to divide the republicans. Donald has actively repelled Haley voters, and Biden is emphasizing those insults.
Having more money is more important to the GOTV ground game than advertising. If women and young people show up, Trump will be steamrolled.
I am not worried about the women, so much as the youth and indy voters. The GOP and the Kremlin have been pushing hard on how old Biden is (never mind that trump is almost as old, and acts much older), and that both parties are the same. Oh and that Biden is actually also prime Minister of Israel and can order a ceasefire. The MAGA will vote for trump. The single party GOP voters will vote for trump. The Dems will vote for Biden.
The issue is- will the youth and Indy voters vote smart, and vote for Biden, or with they stay home or vote Indy, and hand the election to trump?
If you can’t fit your ideas into the major parties, it is obvious you will have no effect on the two candidates. You could. You could register as one or the other, and would have say in the primaries. It would have worked 2016 and 2020. Now not so much.
Steamrolling is so twentieth century.
Campaign experts on both sides have read the studies saying that GOTV is more worthwhile than advertising. I suspect it is even more true than in this race where everyone has already heard as much of the messaging as they have stomach for. Trump will be outspent, just like in 2016, but will have enough money for the essentials. If Shanahan is an actual billionaire not obsessed about staying that way, Kennedy may also.
Also, it’s not clear from the polls that young voters are any longer so strong for the Democrats. Maybe plus 4 points, averaging a bunch, and that would barely make up the GOP electoral college advantage. However, you are correct about there still being a big gender gap.
When I say young people, I’m talking about those under age 40 or so. Democrats should pound Republicans on their plan for raising retirement age for Social Security.
Yep, Republicans are definitely leading for young white men, maybe young latino males? Confused messages about what it means to be a man, and how society is also not letting men be men, are unfortunately landing.
Or, more charitably, the right has a better podcast / youtube game.
On the left, for a long time, the biggest names were people like Sam Seder…who is fantastically bright, but his channel stinks. It’s only in the last few years that left-wing channels that have a compelling message and can build an audience have started to emerge, late to the game.
(OK, TYT was always there, but it is an outlier. Love it or hate it, TYT makes compelling content and helps to spread the progressive POV).
What is “TYT”?
Google tells me it’s ‘The Young Turks’? I didn’t know, either.
Yes The Young Turks. Somewhat controversial, as the main host and founder, Cenk Uygur, has quite a shouty, aggressive style, almost the Alex Jones of the left.
But while Alex just makes up random shit, Cenk actually has well-reasoned progressive positions. I actually agree with him on most things, I think he often has the best take on many issues, but I can’t watch too much of the show personally.
IMHO what’s happened with a lot of Latinos, especially younger people, is that functionally they have integrated to the point that they are treated by society as white people who happen to have a last name like Garcia or Rodriguez instead of Williams or Johnson (or O’Malley or Marino to choose examples from other groups which once weren’t considered white and now are). This is even more so the case in places where Latinos are in the majority or a large minority, like in southern Florida and southern Texas. IMHO this is why those two areas have become redder in the last several election cycles.
Any strategy by Biden or Democrats in general to win voters from that group will only work if it’s the sort of strategy targeted at young white men. A campaign for the Latino vote isn’t going to be effective, because a lot of them now consider themselves white.
I agree with your data and your conclusion.
Once they inadvertently vote the R White Supremacists into power I think they will be very surprised to learn just how utterly non-White they are in the view of the people now controlling their government.
Some local Latino mayors in e.g. FL & TX notwithstanding.
Crooked Media have likewise been doing a lot of good podcast work IMHO.
This is a fantastic observation and one I hadn’t considered in the past. It would go a long way to explaining the reddening among Latinx voters.
And I know about The Young Turks and Cenk Uyghur, the TYT did throw me to as I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen it shortened that way. If we’re recommending other liberal YouTube channels and podcasts I have to recommend Meidastouch on youtube. They also do a couple of podcasts every week. I’m sure most dopers are aware of them but for those who aren’t, it’s an unabashedly liberal network. Always interesting to listen to in my opinion.
Yes. Here in western Wisconsin, there are few urban (or even suburban) Latinos. Most live in specific small towns — rural places that happen to have, say, a chicken processing plant.
All day, every day, they live in a rural, working-class (okay, fine, “redneck”) milieu. These are the folks they hang out with, drink beers with, maybe go hunt with. The bars will show Fox News. It’s no surprise that so many of them become Trumpists.
Let me add BTC, Brian Tyler Cohen. While I think he tends to be overly optimistic at times, sometimes that’s what I need after Donnie Two-scoops skates away once again. He has frequent guest commentators like Glenn Kirschner, a former Federal prosecutor; Marc Elias, of Democracy Watch; and Tim Miller, a reformed Republican.
A small put potentially critical victory for Biden – Trump has been urging Nebraska Republicans to change how the state allocates its electoral votes. Currently Nebraska awards electors based on both statewide vote as well as the vote within its three Congressional Districts. This allowed Biden to pick up a Nebraska EV in 2020 by winning the Omaha-based 2nd District. Trump and the conservative blogosphere have been urging the Republican-dominated Nebraska state legislature to switch to a winner-take-all system. The Governor is on board, but yesterday the legislature overwhelmingly voted down a motion that would have brought the proposal up for a vote.
One seat may not seem like much, but if Biden were to take the reliably blue states plus the “blue wall” (WI, PA, MI), that would only get him to 269 EVs – an electoral vote tie. Previously, that would have been an outright win but some of those states lost EVs due to reapportionment. An EV tie goes to the House, where Republicans would almost certainly have the numbers to elect Trump.