I hadn’t run the map, and didn’t realize that the “blue wall” plus the other typically blue states was no longer enough to reach 270. With Michigan’s blue status being less certain, that means Georgia and Arizona (and maybe North Carolina?) are now critically important, not just potential icing on the cake. It’s nice to know, but does make me more nervous about Biden’s chances.
ETA: I just ran the map. Maybe the map you were using didn’t include Nevada as a “reliably blue” state? WI, PA, MI, plus NV and the other blue states get’s Biden to 276 (assuming 1 Biden EV in NE and 1 Trump EV in Maine, or an all blue Maine and all red Nebraska). Biden even wins if he gets AZ, WI, PA, and NV but loses MI and GA. Things aren’t quite as bleak as your post made me think .
Didn’t mean to cause any panic! There are any number of combinations that could make the Nebraska 2nd irrelevant. I was just pointing out how such a seemingly minor change could have an outsized impact.
And yes, I do not consider NV “reliably blue” particularly after the 2022 Senate squeaker and the Gov flip to the Rs.
What makes you nuts: the implied positivity for Trump, or the ridiculously useless vagueness of “good / bad for America” combined with the stupidity of the question and the false correlation-causation it implies?
I agree. The irony is that those voters are correct. They just lack the insight into why things were better under Trump than they are now. IMHO it’s because it takes time for a president’s actions to affect the country as a whole. The reason they were better under Trump is we were still enjoying the effects of Obama’s hard work. The reason they aren’t as good under Biden is because we’re just now starting to feel the effects of everything Trump messed up. Add to that the fact that Trump got worse as he went along, culminating in 1/6, and here we are. How can Democrats get voters to understand that? I have no idea.
ETA. All that plus the fact that Trump is the first POTUS since Grover Cleveland to not actually retire. He’s still actively screwing things up and people are blaming those things on Biden.
There’s a significant fraction of the voters who don’t understand how progressive taxation works. And that’s a relatively straight-forward issue compared to the cumulative effects of a president’s policies on the country.
So there’s really no way you’ll ever get these people to understand these complexities. This is why people use slogans instead.
Hate to say this, but Trump would stomp Biden in debate–Biden is soft poodle going against pit bull. remember perception is everything regardless of facts. And MAGAs are a dedicated vote compared to all-or-nothing DEMs who may sit out
He really isn’t. It would be more “Biden is a border collie, while Trump is a rabid labrador”. Biden is capable of control and direction; Trump would only “win” in the sense of being uncontrollable, chaotic and likely to cause random damage.
To use a different analogy, Trump is the ultimate grandmaster of pigeon chess.
If ever there were something to prove the unreliability of witness memory, this would be it.
That being said, though - I think part of the reason may be that 3/4 of Trump’s years were Covid-free. While 4/4 out of Biden’s years had Covid. The poll wasn’t asking Americans which president was better, it was asking if the years of 2017-2020 were better off for America than 2021-2024.
Doesn’t explain the thousand other reasons why Biden is better than Trump, but I think that may at least be one factor.
They debated in '20, and Trump looked like a crazed toddler while Biden was a normal person. I seriously doubt Trump will debate him again after that debacle.
I’m sure Trump’s fans were happy with his performance; I don’t see any reason to believe those who don’t already like him enjoy his insane, confused ramblings.
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