How much does trump have to spend, the RNC $ is going for his legal fees, etc ?
I suspect the fact that he cant be out campaigning and will have to spend all his $ on legal fees, payoffs etc will have and effect.
Biden has done very well in raising campaign money.
Very good point. Even if it doesn’t make it a swing state for the POTUS, there are other campaigns during the election that might be influenced.
I don’t want to say Florida is a lost cause, but we’re gerrymandered out the wazoo. The situation at the state level is pretty grim from a blue perspective. I don’t know if we have a single Republican-held competitive congressional district.
Yes, but that doesnt effect Senate or Presidential races- just House and local/state.
Of course, but that post is about Biden’s effect on downticket races in Florida.
I’m afraid that this article is right-the bosses may like Biden, but the workers like Trump.
My gut feeling is that Joe the President needs to stop talking about Individual-ONE. There remains the remote possibility that that guy will not be the significant opposition, so Joe needs to act like he does not even matter. “Elect me, because I am the best choice.” He needs to make his campaign about why he is better, not about why the other guy is so bad.
I agree his campaign must heavily focus on why he is the right guy. But to leave discussion of Trump’s galactically large deficiencies on the table seems like malpractice. He can, and should, do both.
There has never been a candidate so awful as Trump. “Jesus Christ, just listen to that asshole” can be a very effective strategy.
I’d never debate Trump, though. No point.
But his bullshit should be addressed on the face of it, not because he said it. Most of what he says should be simply ignored because it is bullshit – the broader yaposphere will mock and deride Individual-ONE without needing any help from Joe the President. It should only be the significant points (should there even be more than one) that Joe should address, and not reference the other guy at all. That guy really needs no more air.
Still early, but for now, Trump is still holding strong in the polls. The outcome of the court case could change all that, though.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html
In this case, per your link… the poll, singular. Specifically, the latest CNN/SSRS poll.
In the various major polls that have reported in recent weeks, most are statistical ties with the difference being within the margin of error. The rest? Trump leads some, Biden leads some.
Liberal commentator Simon Rosenberg responds:
There is also a new CNN poll today showing Trump with a 49-43 national lead. Given that dozens of other national polls have shown the race within the margin of error and many have shown Biden gaining or with leads THIS CNN POLL IS AN OUTLIER and should be treated that way by CNN and other commentators. Any attempt to use the CNN to guide one’s understanding of the election given that dozens of other polls are showing a completely different race (tied) would be journalistic and/or analytical malpractice. A few months ago the Washington Post published a poll that they considered an outlier, and acknowledged it in their article about the poll, pointing out that their data was different from many other recent polls. CNN and other commentators should do the same with this poll.
Regarding the battleground states, Rosenberg offers this (same link as in post above):
A new series of polls released by CBS News have very good news for Joe Biden and the Democrats:
- Michigan Biden 51-49
- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Trump 50-49
These polls represent at least a 4 point Biden gain (and perhaps as much as 6-7 pts) from CBS’ last poll which had the Trump up 52-48 nationally. They also confirm trends I’ve been writing here for weeks now - the election is changing, it’s getting bluer, and Trump can no longer be said to lead either nationally or in the battlegrounds. It is a close, competitive election now that has moved in our direction in recent weeks and we need to put our heads down and together go win this thing. For those following Michigan note this is now the third poll in the last few weeks showing Biden with a slight lead there.
Nostalgia for Trump’s trainwreck of a first term. Ye gods. What is wrong with people?: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/biden-trump-nostalgia/index.html
The writer didn’t show their work. They write “… some voters have warming memories of the former president’s chaotic term” but don’t quote any actual voters.
What I think the writer is doing is extrapolating somewhat disingenuously from the recent CNN poll they’ve been so breathless about: “Trump’s up by six points! Horse race! Excitement! Eyeballs! Clicks!”
Anyway, from the article:
The CNN poll released Sunday suggests Biden is facing extreme pressure to do more to remind voters of the turmoil of Trump’s single term, which ended amid his erratic leadership in a once-in-a-century pandemic but that now appears to some voters to have largely been a time of economic stability.
More than half, 55%, of all Americans say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. That contrasts with a survey taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, when 55% of voters considered his presidency a failure. Regarding Biden’s presidency so far, 61% say it’s a failure, while 39% see it as successful.
I imagine it’s an exercise for the reader to determine the meaningfulness of Biden’s purported state of mind right now.
Over the past several weeks, President Joe Biden has privately expressed confidence that he’s going to win the November election, according to three people familiar with his comments, in a shift from the frustration with the status of his campaign that he was venting to aides just a couple months ago.
The turnabout in Biden’s mood has been propelled in part by recent polling that shows him gaining ground against former President Donald Trump, these people said. But, they added, he’s also been buoyed by more frequent trips to battleground states and an apparent coalescence around his candidacy by some Democrats who had yet to embrace him.
The president has particularly been cheered by specific metrics his campaign advisers are now providing to him on a regular basis: the increasing number of campaign offices being opened and staff being hired, as well as efforts to expand the reach of the campaign’s low-dollar fundraising program, a Biden campaign official said.
“He just thinks he’s going to win,” one of the people familiar with Biden’s private comments said.
“Were you better off four years ago?” Four years ago, they were stacking bodies in refrigerator trucks, as the President kept coming up with stupid unscientific shit.
With small businesses failing all over the place due to covid? many losing their jobs? People unable to pay rents? That economic stability? 
Ah yes. 4 years ago. Good times, good times. Unemployment rate of 14.8%. A president who suggested we could fix that by inhaling bleach and sticking a UV light up our bums.
Between now and Election Day, there have got to be some good punchy ads by Biden/Harris and others, reminding people of just what happened in the White House, and the country, in 2017-2021.