President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election

Politics & Elections
1272

One poll is never very good news.

I don’t usually look at state-level polling because it is less accurate than national polling, but in deference to contrary opinions, I just did an analysis of where the race stands in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

This uses official returns I found at cnn.com, and the fivethirtyeight.com averages of “presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency.”

Michigan

Biden won the state of Michigan by just 2.8 percent in the 2020 popular vote, despite being up by 7.9 percent in the final (November 2) pre-election 538 Michigan polling average.

538 had Biden ahead by 6.8 percent, in Michigan, on April 29,2020.

538 has Trump ahead by 2.1 percent, in Michigan, on April 29, 2024.

So Biden is 8.9 percent behind where he was at this point four years ago. And, if skews stay the same, Biden needs to make up 6.1 percent in Michigan to tie.

Pennsylvania

Biden won my commonwealth of Pennsylvania by just 1.2 percent in the 2020 popular vote, despite being up by 4.7 percent in the final (November 2) pre-election 538 Pennsylvania polling average.

538 had Biden ahead by 5.6 percent, in Pennsylvania, on April 29, 2020.

538 has Trump ahead by 1.7 percent, in Pennsylvania, on April 29, 2024.

So Biden is 7.3 percent behind where he was at this point four years ago. And, if skews stay the same, Biden needs to make up 6.1 percent in Pennsylvania to tie.

It’s a coincidence that Biden is, by this method, behind by 6.1 percent in both states. But what isn’t a coincidence is that Biden keeps on running about that much behind four years ago, both nationwide and in these swing states. It bumps a point or two this way or that from time to time, but I still see a static race with Biden behind.

Will campaigning push the race outside this narrow range? Pretty unlikely historically, I think. Debates help Biden, but that is already taken into account in my admittedly imperfect method. Do unpredictable events matter? Yes. Would being convicted of a felony push the race outside of this narrow range? Since it never happened before, no one knows, but, more likely than not, we’ll find out.

1273

This illustrates why I look at the horse race numbers, but not so much at what swing voters say.

Voting decisions are made in some non-verbal part of the brain. Then words come in to justify them.

My virtually data-free opinion is that Biden was perceived in 2020, by low info swing voters, as the one and only prominent Democrat who was somehow a regular guy. Now he is perceived as a Democratic Party politician. Of course, no one is going to say that, because even low info voters know Joe was always a Democratic Party politician.

1274

the term for the non-verbal part of deciding was heuristics in the hands of tversky and Kahneman. We seem to think in wins and losses but are poor at doing statistics in our head. However, if we have multiple choices we do better. We don’t get the best answer but usually no worse than second best.

1275
dude

a-Biden

1276

I hope this gives him some good press.

1277

Not to mention the munchies, bro.

1278
1279

Why should we care what Trump-apologists like Ross Douthat think?

1280

Completely agree but with the narrow range not being that polling but the same narrow range last time was: pretty much split even with the polls moving up and down a few points up and down but bottom line final results dependent on who comes out to vote against whom on Election Day (and in early voting).

1281

Republican Geoff Duncan, the former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, has thrown his hat in the ring for Biden. This endorsement may not move the needle a lot nationally, but Duncan did publish an op-ed in the state’s largest newspaper, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (link is free to view). If that piece can get Biden an extra few thousand Georgia votes, it will have helped a ton.

Commentary below from liberal political writer Jay Kuo:

It’s a rare thing for a former Republican official to publicly declare for a Democrat. Duncan joins a fairly small group so far, which includes former Trump spokeswoman Sarah Matthews and former White House lawyer Ty Cobb.

The usual approach for many “Never Trumpers” has been to denounce the ex-president, but then still say something about how they could still never vote for Biden and would probably be voting third party or writing in a name, such as Nikki Haley.

But Duncan understands that this election is not just about not supporting Trump. It’s also actively about supporting our democracy. “This November, I am voting for a decent person I disagree with on policy over a criminal defendant without a moral compass,” Duncan wrote.

For Duncan, voting for Biden is a “binary choice” in an election and a practical necessity to save our country from Trump. He cited polls showing that Trump is leading nationally (he actually isn’t, even according to the polling averages) and in the battleground states (again, not necessarily). But if these misleading polls can convince Republicans who are frightened of a second Trump term to cast their votes for Biden, then so be it.

1282

Thanks, but the AJC link requires signing in.

1283

I wonder how I can see it free?

I can paste the text of Duncan’s op-ed into a spoiler box, but my assumption is that doing so violates an SDMB ground rule. @Aspenglow , @What_Exit , @puzzlegal ?

If pasting the text here is a no-go, Jay Kuo’s piece linked above quotes more than enough of Duncan’s piece to get the gist and then some.

1284

Moderating:

Let’s go with this option. That keeps us away from any fair use issues. Thanks for checking first.

1285

As always, I will happily share a gift link to the article in the NYT about Geoff Duncan’s OpEd. It doesn’t have a lot of the text but I thought it might be helpful.

1286

Biden up 6 in WI according to latest Quinnipiac poll. Even more interesting, he is up in every age bracket and leads among independents, women, white people (in general) and non-white people. Only didn’t lead in the male category (and among Rs, of course).

Imgur

1287

Hopeful, recent news from Arizona as well:

Per the link:

A new poll by a conservative, highly-rated, conservative Arizona-based pollster Data Orbital has Biden up 1 and Gallego up 4. It is the first time Biden has led in an Arizona poll since June, 2023.

Luv ya, Simon … but let me make sure of something: Are you trying to tell us that Data Orbital is a conservative polling outfit?

1288

Ha! Maybe it’s an astute use of multiple meanings: “conservative” as in “employs tried-and-true polling methodology and statistical analysis,” and also “polling outfit is associated with conservative political ideologies.”

1289

Fareed Zakaria with a good write-up:

1290

Here’s a good ad.

1291

Interesting that he mentions Biden’s age but not Trump’s. Why do voters perceive Biden’s age as a problem, but not Trump’s: is it because of the roundness of the number 80, or because a thinner (and probably healthier) man shows more signs of age (as in the photos chosen)? Something else?

Biden’s age is an issue for me, but I simply can’t see how that works in Trump’s favor unless he’s somehow managed to sell that he’s not in his upper 70s (78 in June). Trump is right around the age Reagan was on the last day of his presidency; the two of them plus Biden have been our only septuagenarian presidents ever (barring the last couple of months of Eisenhower).