This is possibly the wrong forum, but what are the prospects of imminent Catalonian indepence? Apparently there are rumours that they are going to declare secession from Spain after the next regional election.
TBH I don’t know very much about Spainish politics. Is this plausible and can Catalonia survive on its own?
If this does happen what does this mean for Spain and other independence movements worldwide?
They can declare all they want but unless the rest of Spain is willing to let them go amicably (which I doubt) they won’t get anywhere short of massive civil unrest or a complete breakdown of the current Spanish government preventing effective opposition to secession. Likewise Scotland and all the other regions wanting to break off on their own.
Consider this: either the region in question has value to the larger country, in which case the country will not be willing to lose them, or it doesn’t, in which case the region will struggle to exist independently. Also, the larger country will subsequently be smaller with a lower population than previously, which will affect its status (economically, militarily, etc) amongst other countries. Spain is already struggling; I doubt it wants to lose more land, people and resources.
Ah, a grand old European war. About time too. Getting boring. :D;)
What is the chance that Spain will suppress the Catalan movement by force, if it happens?
It’s pretty clear which side of this equation Catalonia is on.
However, in the abstract I don’t think this argument holds. We can certainly conceive of situations in which separation would have a neutral net economic effect, or would even be to the benefit of both parties.
Catalonia has for quite a while been the component of Spain that is more industrially and socially progressive and Europe-looking. IMO all things being equal they would do rather reasonably for themselves in the context of the EU.
Spain would not do much to forcibly prevent separation if it became clear that’s the direction things are taking. Drag it out for years with a lot of arguing over legal and economic terms and conditions, yes, and the Catalans themselves would probably add a lot of that from their own side. (For one, neither Spain *nor the EU *would likely let Catalonia split clean while leaving Spain holding the bag for the debt and obligations, while Catalonia would reasonably say sure we’ll take some of it over but only that part thereof which we created locally.)
I can’t see that any country in the EU would be willing to support such a move, as it would only encourage similar movements in the rest of the continent.
Few European countries have the heart to forcedly prevent a region from declaring independence if it is seen that there is a large majority in the region that wish independence. Spain more than many other (and they opposed Kosovo independence for the same reason) but whereas the Spanish government may try to throw any number of juridical monkey wrenches in the movement, I do not see even them resorting to military occupation.
Denmark would. So what if it encourages similar movements? If a people want their independence they should have it. This has long been the arrangement with the Danish overseas regions of the Faroe Islands and Greenland – and Iceland before that. But Catalonia would not automatically become a member of the EU. It’d have to apply for membership.
Well, you probably have a better pulse on things Danish than I do*, but I think there is a distinct difference between letting a distant island have its independence and letting a part of the mainland go.
*Although I did eat a Danish Pastry a few weeks ago, so I’ve got that going for me!
I agree with this position, with the caveat that if a people want their independence in order to do nasty things to minorities in their independent country, that’s worth stopping. (i.e., in the American Civil War). But that’s not the case with Catalonia, and I really just can’t imagine another Spanish Civil War; the first one was a thoroughly grim affair, and is still in living memory (if only just). Though the political science folks would find it academically interesting; it’s very rare for democracies to wage war upon one another. Some would say it’s never happened at all; depends, for example, upon whether Serbia was a democracy under Milosevic. We don’t normally think of Milosevic as a standard-bearer for democracy, but remember that the man left power when he lost an election - Serbia’s democratic institutions were flawed, authoritarian, and genocidal, but they still had some teeth. Heck, Serbia in the late nineties has a solid claim to being more democatic than the Confederate States of America; Jeff Davis never had to run for re-election.
All of which is to say - the theorists would have a field day with a democratic Spain waging war upon the democratically elected local government of Catalonia.
We need to talk, Mr. Davis. Meet you at Gettysburg?
Perhaps, or maybe it has to do with the size of the country. Large countries always think big is better; small countries know small is best. I can’t see small countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – themselves newly formed, or the rest of Scandinavia having too many qualms about recognising a new Catalonian nation state. Iceland has recognised anything that moved since 1945, and usually been the first to do so. The Czechoslovakia separation was also quite amicable. And how serious can anyone take nations that pushed on for Kosovo independence if they suddenly think otherwise about Catalonia (or Scotland, Flandern, etc.)? It’s back to the Middle Ages for Europe. And all for the better.
Danish pastry is a trademark that belongs to the King of Denmark-Norway, the Goths, the Wends, and the Vandals. You do know that you’re supposed to pay 5% of the price as tax to Denmark every time you eat Danish pastry?
I would have supported Southern independence. And in fact I understand many German refugees that had fought against German unification fought on the rebel side.
I can’t speak for other EU countries, but I imagine there would be considerable sympathy for Catalan independence in Ireland, if the people of Catalonia decide that’s what they want. Our own history has conferred upon us a tendency to support the underdog and the right to self-determination.
Many European countries moved quickly to recognise the independence of Slovenia, then (slightly less quickly) Croatia, and so on. So it’s not really a question of setting a precedent.
Does anyone know how this issue (sovereign debt) is usually managed when countries split amicably? The Czech/Slovak split, for example?
Not really the same thing. For example, the slaves weren’t allowed to vote on the matter - the very people that the South wanted to split off in order to keep abusing. There’s also a large difference between asking to split off and starting a war over it.
There are a couple of Spanish posters on the board, so maybe they will join the discussion to give their take. My understanding of the situation is that Spain would be against such a move because it gets a substantial part of their tax revenue from the region, and this would put a rather large hole in their budget. Until fairly recently, I don’t think there was much of a Catalonian independence movement (granted, it’s been on the back burner for a LONG time, but it’s only recently that it’s sort of come to the front), but that’s changed quite a bit lately, and it seems to be picking up steam in the region. Still, I don’t think we are talking about the majority (ISTR that there are two major parties in the region, one totally for independence, and one that’s traditionally been opposed, but now is more neutral about the prospect). I’m not familiar enough with the situation to give even ballpark numbers, but I’d say that it’s still in the ‘could happen but is still unlikely’ category for complete independence. Now…possibly more autonomy within the Spanish nation? THAT seems (to my less than knowledgeable view) a better possibility.
Can’t argue with that. Yes, I was focusing on the larger countries, but you are correct in pointing out that the smaller ones might be more open to the idea.
Ah, but some have found:
*
That if once you have paid him the Danegeld,
You never get rid of the Dane.*
If the EU gets more centralized, wouldn’t this be Northern California breaking away from Southern California?
They’d have to get a lot more politically unified, but yes and no. The US doesn’t have the same degree of cultural and linguistic diversity that Europe has, nor does it have the same depth of historical animosities between states and regions.
And it should be noted that it would be very difficult for part of CA to break off from the state as a whole, although I’m not sure the other states would care much either way.
I wouldn’t know if there’s a chance that Catalonia will become independent, but it never crossed my mind that it could result in massive civil unrest, government breakdown or civil war. I think some of the posters here are biased by American history (the civil war). I expect peaceful separations be it in Spain or in the UK, Belgium, etc.. (Naming only the ones with a significant chance of success, otherwise, the list would be endless in Europe. We have four Independence movements in France alone : Brittany, Basque Country, Corsica, Savoy, plus more essentially anecdotal. Or in Italy, the Northern League is politically very influent even though it has no expectation of actually forming an independent state).
Thinking of it, it occurs to me posters might have the Yugoslavian example or Ireland in mind rather than the US civil war. Anyway, Spain is already quite decentralized, the validity of claims of Spanish regions are acknowledged, and the possibility that someday Catalogne in particular could want to become independent known.
If history has shown one thing, its when people are so civilised and democratic that they cannot conceive of conflict, when they are accustomed to deciding things amicably and with a minimum of fuss, they will be no fighting. This is especially true over things like country separating.