Let’s give the lowest people in our society guns and send them off to fight a war no one truely wants once they get there and figure out they have been played. Isn’t that sorta kinda how the communist revolution started?
What would happen if a state withdrew from the United States?
Not even the same thing. The Ukraine is an independant nation that was freely spun off from the USSR.
Last time States did that there was a civil war.
Would Putin see it that way?
It doesn’t matter what Putin thinks since he is a known liar and manipulator.
They have upwards of 20K tanks, several thousand Howitzers, several thousand self-propelled, etc. I don’t know where people think they can’t make anything. Thales cut them off from thermals 9 years ago and they reverse engineered it.
Heavy weapons repair is something a backyard redneck can do. It’s a ton of steel and welding. They’re a top 4 steel exporter, now they have a lot. People claimed they couldn’t make anything after their first adventure into the Ukraine in 2014. They still did. Nearly every ooo awww claim we’ve made against them turned out to be a load of bs.
Even the report of US troops lighting up a bunch of Wagner PMC turned out to be false when Der Spiegel opened up an investigation into it. The majority were Russian backed Syrians. People are still parroting the fact that the Ruskies supposedly began paying Taliban bounties on US soldiers heads’… which turned out to be false over a year later. But it was parroted by both Republicans and Democrats.
So why does Russia suck at night operations?
Even if they reverse engineered the tech, it does not mean they can produce it at volume or even afford it.
Every Javelin launcher system is also a capable night vision system. Ukrainians have been using them for night ops even when they have no missile to go with it. Whatever night vision equipment Russia has is either spread too thin, not of comparable quality, or goes underutilized due to poor training and doctrine.
Attrition heavily favors Ukraine. Ukraine is the one that has 15 million men and women of fighting age, many of whom are willing to fight. Ukraine is the side that’s getting a steady flow of good NATO weapons, supplies, ammo, etc. Ukraine in fact has even more tanks now than it did when the war began.
Russia is the side with low morale, deserters, men who see no point in fighting, the one running out of missiles, ammo and weapons rapidly, etc. with no means to replace them and a national economy that won’t be able to sustain the war engine for long no matter how much Putin screams “mobilization.”
Time only favors Ukraine more and more as time goes on. The Arsenal of Democracy isn’t even in full gear yet. If we get to the point where America is Lend-Leasing Ukraine with full gusto, it’s game over. And NATO vs. Russia, in economic terms, is $40 trillion of GDP going up against little more than $1 trillion of GDP. One side can easily out-spend the other.
I was, before this year, hoping that low fertility rate countries would be deterred from launching wars like this because so many parents would lose their only child. Russia and Ukraine both have been in population decline for many years, so this factor affects both, but for Ukraine it isn’t a war of choice.
While my hope that low fertility could deter this war proved illusory, I wonder if this factor could still limit how far Putin will go.
Of course, it could also lead to consideration of WMD.
On paper…
I’m less inclined to give Russian maintenance of their old inventory the benefit of the doubt. Even before this war Russia was not exactly overflowing with cash and were having to continually cutting back on their new equipment procurement goals due to budget crunches and cost overruns (as well as teething pains in design). And said procurement would have been priority #1. Regular maintenance of 20-year old tanks in storage is exactly what they would have been scrimping on most.
That’s not to say that Russia doesn’t have or cannot repair back into service significant amounts of gear given some time. But I do think the amount of useable equipment they’ll be able to extract quickly(or even at all) is likely to be rather less than stated numbers. And again, reservist quality will mostly not be great - apparently less than 10% get any refresher training at all and remember most were conscripts who only served a single year in the first place. Russian goals starting in 2021 were 80-100k paid active reserves, a national guard of sorts, which is likely a goal that they didn’t come close to before war broke out. Cost constraints, yet again.
On the other hand you are being far too optimistic in the other direction. Ukraine cannot arm (let alone train) even a tiny fraction of that, never mind that such a mobilization is utterly impossible in any real sense. Russia does have a much more robust arms industry and the West is not going to strip their own stocks completely dry to arm Ukraine - in a war of attrition manufacturing reality would eventually reduce western re-supply to a steady trickle even with the best of intentions.
I don’t know who will “win” a prolonged conflict, but Ukraine is definitely not in the driver’s seat no matter how much international aid they get. Meanwhile no matter who and what they mobilize Russia does not have an easy task based on what we have seen to date. The only thing guaranteed in a longer war is a lot more death and destruction.
Putin might have been able to do that at the start of the war, but I think he’s no longer capable of doing so at this point. With the help provided by the western powers, Ukraine is a lot stronger. If Russia did try those things they would just end up losing their bombers, artillery, tanks, infantry, etc. It wouldn’t be like what the Allies did to Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. It would be more like what the Israelis did to the Arabs during the Israeli-Arab wars.
But Russia still maintains air superiority over Ukraine, unless something has changed recently.
You are quoting two winners.
There isn’t gear, support, ammo, food or other logistics for that.
Nope. That is what Putin claims, no such deals were signed, etc. Vague sorta general assurances is all.
Cite?
And yes, there are quite a few people of Russian nationality in eastern Ukraine. That is because Stalin committed Genocide vs the Ukrainian people and moved Russians in. This is like the guy killing both his parents and throwing himself on the mercy of the court as he is a orphan. 
Areas that are part of Ukraine? Cite?
Yes corruption all over that area- Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, etc. No real serious Nazis since WW2, another Putin lie.
BtW, I am Carpathian.
Nope, nothing has changed. Russia still does not have air superiority over Ukraine by any stretch of the imagination. Fact is, both Russian and western SAMs are quite effective at shooting down Russian aircraft. Ukraine apparently learned this early in the war for the Donbas many years ago and stopped relying on air power. The same lesson does not appear to have been lost on the Russians, and they’ve generally tried to keep their air power out of the range of Ukrainian defenses.
This air war seems to be the domain of the drones.
I meant it in the sense that Ukraine is more likely to have a result like the Israelis, and not like the Imperial Japanese or Nazis. Short of Putin going nuclear, I think it’s a safe bet that Ukraine will emerge victorious.
ETA. It won’t be a WWII style victory. We aren’t going to see Ukrainians marching in the streets of Vladivostok after an unconditional surrender by Russia. But it will still be a victory.
Russia never had air superiority over Ukraine, except possibly in some very limited areas. That would require a significant degree of suppression while not being suppressed themselves. That hasn’t happened. The Ukrainian Air Force is still launching successful attacks:
How many still have engines, radios, etc? How many aren’t rusted into uselessness?
And of those, how many well trained people do they have to occupy them?
Thales produces equipment for tanks and aircraft. That is what the Ruskies bought and then reverse engineered in 2014 and onward because Thales’ hardware contains French and other European along with American parts. You’ll have seen videos they downgrade, a standard practice even for the US and just about any nation. I don’t know why this is done, to be honest. I’m not entirely sure if they need to do night time ops with their air craft since it’s simpler for them to lob artillery and missiles from afar. Or gearing their helis upward and lobbing air to surface rockets. A practice we also do and the Ukrainians recently adopted. The press picked it up as if it was some dumb method. The helicopter will zero in on a target area and as the pilot pitches up the heli’c computer targeting system will estimate a landing zone based off the initial target acquisition and estimate where the array of rockets may land. If you’re going for mass causalities and don’t care who it hits or what it hits, then it’s a perfect method. I’ve been told by some US military pilots the systems on our helicopters are far more advanced and can lock in a new target with deadly accuracy using this pitch method.
NVGs are expensive to give to every soldier, they’ll give them to their elite or Wagner if they’re doing nighttime ops. I couldn’t tell you how reliable the NVGs given to our Marines or how often night time ops were done.
You’re right about the Javelin but forget the Russians and the Chechen riffraff they’ve hired have gotten their hands on a couple hundred Javelins by now. I’m not entirely sure how much the Javelin is being used. I follow a lot of pro Ukrainian channels and they seem to be relying on the British NLAW and Stugna-P over the Javelins, night or day. Either the Javelin is too powerful for their needs with the junk Russia’s using or keeping it for an offensive move. My best bet is on the defensive move they plan on doing sometime in late May through early July or whatever was quoted from their defense minister.