There was an interesting bit of discussion in an episode of the podcast that aceplace57 linked to earlier in the thread.
The writer/historian Owen Matthews talks about how the main opposition and political threat to Putin does not come from the “Navalny pro-western liberals”, but from the ultranationalist right.
In June last year, French president Macron controversially said that Putin must not be humiliated. The guest says that, having spoken to Macron’s aides, they are aware that what comes after Putin could be much worse:
What do you think? Is Putin Hitler or Kaiser Wilhelm II?
I agree: it is important to remember that Kaiser Wilhelm II was a complete fool. But if I had to choose, I would say Putin is closer to Hitler than to the Kaiser, only, perhaps, still in an early stage of Hitler’s decend to Hell. He might have thought that Ucraine was the Sudetenland, or he could pull an annexation like the Anschluss of Austria. That was a wrong error.
One of the most effective tricks autocrats use to remain in power is convincing people that things will be worse if they go away. It works especially well on politician, who will always look for any excuse to maintain the status quo.
The comparison that matters here is not between “fool” and “evil” but between “evil” and “more evil”. Is whatever / whoever that follows Putin going to be worse or better? Both possibilities are in play. That is the question.
As @Alessan just said, it’s certainly self-serving and commonplace for autocrats to promote Door #2.
My own take is it’s naive to expect Mr. Nice Guy Western-Friendly to follow Putin. But it’s also likely that the events leading up somebody deciding to change the regime and the battle of that change itself will really cripple Russia’s capabilities to make mischief (other than a nuclear wargasm) for a long time to come.
So the message for the West is don’t force regime change as such, but also don’t fear it. Just keep the steady pressure on their neck until something or someone breaks. Then deal clear-eyed with the aftermath, whatever it might be.
Tempting as historical analogies may be, I don’t see Putin resembling either Hitler or Kaiser Willy. He’s more like a greatly weakened, ineffectual Stalin.
Wilhelm II incidentally has been regarded as quite intelligent by historians. His problem was that his brains frequently were overriden by nationalist fervor, resentment over perceived slights and a colossal ego fed by sycophantic advisers and others with various agendas (von Bulow, Tirpitz etc).
Even Navalny may not necessarily be western-friendly, in the seemingly unlikely event he emerged from prison and made it to the top. But the KGB/FSB clique seem to have things well and truly sewn up, and it might go to an even more thuggish securocrat.
Though the historical comparator that springs to my mind is Nicholas II.
Actually this is the reason I would say that Putin is more like Hitler. The Russians have already suffered the humiliating defeat and loss of status in the cold war. Putin, like Hiter, is promising to return Russia to its former glory. I don’t see someone coming after Putin being in any way more aggressively nationalistic and militant, since Putin is already doing pretty much everything he can in that direction. The only line Putin hasn’t crossed is the use of nuclear weapons, and I don’t see any successor on the horizon who has the deathcult mentality necessary to embrace mutually assured destruction.
I don’t demand “Mr. Nice Guy Western-Friendly”, although that would be nice. I’d settle for “Mr. Realized That Thirty Years of Corruption and Crime and Then a Stupid War Did More Damage to Russia Than Anything NATO Ever Did So Let’s Fix Russia Out of Pure Russian Self-Interest”.
You can still be a brutal dictator ruling over Russia with an iron fist, but not be interested in wasting any more Russian lives or resources trying to impose your will on your neighbors. As much as this would still suck for Russians, everyone else would be better off.
Putin indeed is most like Hitler. First of all, he started as a Right Wing Populist, even elected. Then he became a Dictator. Just like Hitler.
Putin then decided he was going to recreate the Russian Empire at it’s greatest. He made a move on Crimea, where Russia did have some sort of legit claim, and the West let him have it. Just like Hitler and Czechoslovakia. Putin then moved on Ukraine, figuring the West wouldn’t do anything- just like Hitler and Poland.
Kaiser Wilhelm was a fool, and born to his power. He actually thought that the British would be honored when Willie tried to build a great blue water Navy, like the British had. This turned the Brits against him. Altho the main cause of WW1 was French desire for revenge, The Kaiser giving AH carte blanche was a major turning point. The Sleepwalkers has the best breakdown of the causes of the Great War- Guns of Autumn, while well written, had a lot of outdated info in it. Of course there were no “good guys” among the major players in that war, they were all warmongering imperialists.
Agree completely that that would be a very nice outcome, probably one of the best of the non-zero probability outcomes.
One bright spot in the morass that is current Russian governance is that the military is playing 3rd or 4th fiddle to the internal security forces and the few surviving oligarchs who are also from the security forces.
When a country’s military is in pole position to be or control the next dictator, making external mischief is all but assured; that’s pretty much the military’s raison d’etre. When instead a country’s secret police, etc., are in pole position, they’re much more interested in making internal mischief. To the detriment of their own population, but better them than anybody / everybody else.
Iran early in the Islamic Republic / Ayatollah era is a decent proxy for my thesis. Only later as the security forces grew into the Revolutionary Guards did they begin to build a de facto military of their own and use it for external as well as internal mischief.
