Many athletes are paranoid about what drugs they take.
Not necessary. If a player doesn’t reach a certain threshold of votes on the first ballot they’re eligible (I think 5%) then they’re off the sportswriter’s ballot permanently. Players aren’t eligible for five years after their final major league appearance, however. Maybe that’s what you meant.
I didn’t know that you could be eliminated the first year of eligibilty. I thought that could only be dropped from consideration after five years of not reaching a certain percentage of the vote. Thanks for the correction.
With that in mind, change my proposal to say that when Palmero becomes eligible, no writer should vote for him. As he will be removed from the sports writers ballot, he will have to gain entry via the Veterans Committee.
Treviathan is correct in that the threshold percentage is 5%, so you probably just got the number switched.
I don’t think there’s any chance at all that Palmiero will fail to get 5% of the vote. I sure wouldn’t mind if he didn’t, but as a general rule, the more time passes, the more the only thing that matters is the numbers. Palmiero’s career is likely over - at 40 years old and his hitting declining, even without all this shit it was time for him to hang 'em up anyway - but by 2010 the outrage over his recent behaviour will have cooled.
There are also a lot of voters, many of them the most prominent sportswriters out there, who are absolutely determined to vote only according to statistics, even though the voting guidelines clearly state that they should consider character, sportsmanship, and overall contribution to the game.
I think he’s made his actually being elected very difficult, but I fear your plan won’t happen, much as I’d like it to.
Does the percentage go up year to year as a candidate gets passed over?
The percentage necessary to stay on the ballot? No.
Last person in MLB? I don’t know about that. If you look at Palmeiro’s lifetime statistics, you’ll notice that he never hit more than 14 home runs during his first five seasons. Then, in 1991, he almost doubled his previous best for a season by hitting 26. After that, he never has less than 22 and from 1995 to 2003 hit at least 38 per season (his personal best being 47 in 1999 and 2001). While it is not unknown in MLB for players to dramatically increase their power numbers in just one season (e.g., Brady Anderson and Norm Cash are two that come to my mind), it’s often proves to be just a fluke. During his first five years, Palmeiro hitting stats paralleled those of his former teammate Mark Grace. However, in 1991 he unexpectedly becomes a power hitter. Even before his recent bust for steroids, you couldn’t help but be suspicious.
And it’s not like nobody suspected Anderson using steroids that year.