Random Mafia

Day Two in (sort of) brief:

Freudian starts us off with a vote for Meeko (651). Logic is that his “clearing” of Kelly on the basis of probability is flawed. I don’t necessarily agree that this is vote-worthy, but it’s not egregious. However, Rysto disagrees and votes for Freudian (655), arguing that if Meeko had known his reasoning was bad, he would have also known he couldn’t sneak bad reasoning past us.

I disagree with Rysto here. Suppose Meeko as Scum and Kelly as Town. A good gambit for Scum is always to find some reason to clear a Townie – that makes the Townie in question subtly favor you and doesn’t put you in a position to be spectacularly wrong. A hypothetical Scum Meeko could have seized on this argument, thinking it adequate for his purposes.

Except: Freudian seems invested in the idea that Meeko is doing this as Scum, trying to protect fellow Scum in Kelly (as she outlines at 660). But this is problematic, because why, then, go for Meeko but not Kelly. I know she only has one vote, but if the argument against Meeko (in her mind) hinges on Kelly-as-Scum, then the more reasonable approach would be to vote Kelly first. Right? Ping on Freudian. Meeko OMGUSes Freudian at this point; he puts a bunch of words in her mouth, by the way – saying that she said that he said (heh) that he would never vote for Kelly, which she never claimed that I can see. Anyway, two votes Freudian, one vote Meeko.

Now we get a string of ed-on-Meeko posts, which frankly, have become an utter non-tell for me. Could be anything.

Now Wanderers strikes up a discussion of why NAF was killed. His first major suggestion concerns the damned mis-spelling, and Jimmy Chitwood jumps on him for it at 703, but without voting (Jimmy basically thinks Wanderers’ approach is flawed and self-centered but not necessarily Scummy).

Tom Scud votes Texcat at 706. He thinks TexCat’s peeker vote was opportunistic, and I agree.

Zeriel votes Drain Bead, evidently for the same reason as Day One. This is a weird thing. I get where Zeriel is coming from, but both his proposed explanation and Drain Bead’s proffered explanation seem about equally likely. So another null tell, in my opinion. But Z also promulgates a bit of suspicion of Tom for his use of the term “overnight thread,” which is kind of silly, to me. Rysto, at 716, points out some problems with Zeriel’s approach. I agree with Rysto’s post here.

Oredigger votes for Jimmy. I don’t exactly understand why, but the vote is subsequently withdrawn. Moving on.

Toward the bottom of Page 15, we get a bit of Mahaloth, kind of urging everyone to participate:

I’m not a huge fan of posts like this – sort of rah! Rah! We need to do better, guys! – particularly when couched with that “Perhaps I’m wrong,” which is a nice way to duck away from conflict. Coupled with Mahaloth’s own agnosticism regarding voting (his major substantive post at this point is one where he suggests that Drain’s apparently general but in practice specific smudge of Zeriel could be an attempt to “stir disorder up by taking what one individual did and try to spread it out and make it sound like there is some kind of negative trend occurring” (even as Mahaloth himself is kind of trying to make it sound like there is some kind of negative trend occurring) and this sequence causes me to view Mahaloth with some suspicion.

More to come in a separate post.

Now, it should be noted that by the top of page 16, we don’t have a strong lynch leader. Everyone is milling about a bit, and votes have gone toward Freudian, Wanderers, and elsewhere.

Wanderers votes for Jimmy, a vote for misrepresentation that wasn’t really misrepresentation.

Jimmy said this:

Wanderers replied with this:

I don’t think these two things are substantively different. Does anyone disagree?

Anyway, special ed questions Mahaloth about his posts (referred in my last post). He asks Mahaloth what he (Mahaloth) has been contributing, and Mahaloth replies:

This bothers me quite a bit. First of all, there’s the “there is little to comment on.” By my count, no one has really done an in-depth look at the peeker lynch. Then we have the Freudian-Meeko thing and the Meeko-ed thing, Drain Bead’s smudge of Zeriel and Z’s response, Tom Scud’s “overnight” thing, Wanderers’ questions about why NAF was killed and the rising suspicion between Wanderers and Jimmy, and lots of smaller side-plots. If that constitutes “little to comment on,” what would meet the Mahaloth standard for “plenty to comment on?” Further, there’s the last line, which to be seems to be baiting ed.

And now, suddenly, the votes for Wanderers start coming. And fast. More on this in a third (and final) post, forthcoming presently.

I’m not sure if he ignored it or what, to be honest. But way back when we actually already had the conversation about his Chronos claim thing (which was post 181), I started with:

Then he didn’t say anything until 222 (speaking of which, does this approach look familiar, Mahaloth?:

Then, going back and forth with Freudian, I said the thing that Wanderers is now bothered by:

But Wanderers’ next post was just an unvote, 288, and he hadn’t addressed any of this until just now. It seems to me like I described my reasons in nearly identical language each time, and Wanderers responded already to my “pushing for a complete C&P.” But my “demanding a full copy-and-paste” is what he’s voting me for, so, hey. I feel like I don’t really have a choice the way he’s playing today.

Shit, story, did you just write all this out?

This always confuses me… How many pposts per page is standard? I have mine set to 200 posts per page, so I’m only up to page 5

Meeko (0): [del]Freudian Slit 651 763[/del]

Freudian Slit (3): Rysto 655, Meeko 666, Tom Scud 783

TexCat (0): [del]Tom Scud 706 783[/del]

Drain Bead (1): Zeriel 715

Jimmy Chitwood (2): [del]Oredigger 717 734[/del], One And Only Wanderers 751, TexCat 795

One And Only Wanderers (4): Jimmy Chitwood 757, Oredigger77 760, Freudian Slit 763, Mahaloth 815

Tom Scud (0): [del]Mahaloth 787 815[/del]

GuiriEnEspaña (1): Chronos 803

I agree with this in principle, but in order to pull this off the argument has to pass cursory inspection. It doesn’t work if half of the players are immediately going to shoot down the argument. I find it far, far more likely that Meeko didn’t recognize that he was falling victim to the gambler’s fallacy than he was intentionally using logic that he knew was invalid.

Is there hidden meaning in this question? Does it refer to something in another game?

Well, I voted for him yesterday and I don’t remember who else voted for him, and I didn’t really feel like going back and seeing because frankly I didn’t think it was that important. It was just a one off vote and it doesn’t really have that much relevance to what’s going on today.

I understand that it’s important to ensure that people aren’t jumping on bandwagons, willy nilly, but I do notice that people are often urged to “vote early, vote often.” Those who hold back are often considered scummy because it’s like they don’t want to commit, or put their money where their mouth is. I’ve been trying to avoid that–to actually make a stand. I understand that some of you may find the reasoning poor, but I don’t think they are, and I do stand by my choices.

50 per page is the default.

Say what?

Hey, no fair editing behind my back.

I knew that was a stupid thing to say off the cuff. Apologies. I’m referring to Mahaloth’s vote at #851, since Wanderers said essentially the same thing the first time he got a couple votes that he said toDay – oh, well, I guess I’m going to be lynched as always. At least you’ll get the information.

Sorry, that’s #815.

And finally, the Wanderers wagon.

At 757 Jimmy votes Wanderers. It’s a good vote, as far as I’m concerned. Jimmy points out that Wanderers seems to have just arbitrarily found a mid-Day-One post and seized on it, by happenstance right after Jimmy began expressing criticism of Wanderers’ play. I see a flaw – Townies as much as Scum get defensive when pressed, and it is very comforting to assume that someone coming after you is Scum, so you start looking for evidence that they might be. Taken alone, Wanderers’ weird cherry picking of a post by Jimmy thus isn’t really strong evidence, but it’s some evidence, and I don’t fault Jimmy for this vote.

Oredigger follows shortly, with this:

OK. Vote’s a little “me-too” for my taste, frankly. Moving on. Freudian adds on, and her vote is fine, I guess. She also points out the following, regarding Zeriel:

That’s a good question. Z?

PS – in here, there is some Jimmy-ed sniping. I don’t know what it means yet, but if I don’t move past it for now I may never finish the analysis.

Tom Scud switches over to Freudian. His reasoning, once questioned, is this:

I find this highly persuasive. In there, Mahaloth kind of defends Freudian. Gah. I really doubt that Mahaloth and Freudian are both Scum, and yet they are my top two candidates as this analysis winds down. Huh.

At 794, Freudian says:

Taking a quick stab at this: because sometimes the case against someone boils down to more than the sum of their actions. In your case, you have a pattern of pursuing soft targets, players who are generating suspicion in other quarters, and of jumping to those targets at times when you appear to be early on the wagon, but not early enough to get attention. Each individual move is justifiable – which is why, if you’re Scum, they’re good moves – but as a whole the picture looks odd.

Chronos comes in and votes for GuirienEspana. Money quote:

I think I have a blind spot here, but at least one player other than Guiri recognized what peeker did as a claim. Just saying. I continue to find Chronos suspicious.

Wanderers does that “maybe you should lynch me” thing (which I think qualifies, by the way, as a de facto claim of vanilla. If Wanderers claims a power role at some point I will be very suspicious). Mahaloth follows it up with an opportunistic vote.

OK.


I am suspicious, to varying degrees, of four players in particular: Chronos, Freudian, Mahaloth, and yes, Wanderers.

For the moment, I am going to put down my strongest suspicion in vote form:

vote Mahaloth

However, I think we are generally doing ourselves a disservice by spreading our votes so thin. I intend to go back to Day One tonight and see if I can dig up anything else there. My vote very well may change as tomorrow approaches.

I agree with you, and I don’t think Meeko was thinking that his logic was invalid. I think his argument sounded good to him.

My point is that it doesn’t really matter whether Meeko believed his own argument or not. What he clearly didn’t do was put a ton of thought into it. It is entirely possible that Meeko just wanted to get on the record as defending someone (he knew to be) Town, so he grabbed at what he considered to be a suitably likely reason.

Meeko’s been wildly paranoid the whole game, and suddenly, randomly, he finds a reason to declare someone off-limits for Day One?

So yeah, you know, add Meeko to my list, above, of folks who look questionable to me.

[oog]ARG, I’m getting hella frustrated with this board, I haven’t been able to log on to post and have only been able to connect to read occasionally.[/oog]

(This post is going to be a bit rambly, as I’ve not had a chance to clarify some points or recheck my notes.)
There are several players who are mildly pinging me right now, but one who is pinging me hard, and that is freudian slit. To me it seems like she is weak voting every bandwagon that comes along. The only vote of hers that makes sense to me is the one for meeko, since if any other player had asserted that another player was town with such a handwave, instead of meeko, they’d be getting lynched pretty quick.

The votes in question:

Freudian votes Red Skeezix: For weirdness that I would vote for texcat for voting for peeker. 1. I didn’t vote texcat for voting peeker, I voted texcat for voting anyone with such spurious reason. Also states that peeker is always the most suspicious player.

Freudian votes Peeker:For an attributed motivation. I don’t see how what you suggested would be more likely for a scum peeker than peeker just making up a claim. Hell he could’ve just claimed last or claimed after texcat, who also had an evil (questionably so) name.

Freudian votes Meeko: Other players have regarded this as an easy vote. Or cherry-picking, I disagree with that sentiment.

Freudian votes OAOW: this looks like bandwagon jumping and the reasoning behind the vote is weak. Your initially stated reason is that his play seems weird to you and you are unsure what to make of it. Then you accuse him of OMGUS voting Jimmy, which maybe is true but it feels to me like you were scrabbling for a reason to get on a bandwagon.

vote Freudian Slit

No, One is telling us that it is actually recommended to vote for him. I think it is a bold scum move to try to get us to not do it. If One is town, then that was a ridiculously foolish thing to think the rest of us town would let go by.

That’s fair. I was second. :slight_smile:

Not much to say about the vote on me from story. I did defend Freudian a bit after that lame vote placed on her. At least story gives a reason with his votes, which I can respect.

Hey! Look at that. I have a meeting tomorrow at 2PM.
Maybe if you ask nicely, you can convince ShadowFacts to end the Day for you.

Here’s what I goot as votes. It looks like a 4-4 tie between OAOW and Freudian. Then, I’ve added a few comments about each player. (it’s difficult playing from work. I can’t concentrate as much as I’d like)

These are mostly notes for me for when I get home and can look things over.

Meeko (0): [del]Freudian Slit 651 763[/del]

Freudian Slit (4): Rysto 655, Meeko 666, Tom Scud 783, Red Skeezix 835

TexCat (0): [del]Tom Scud 706 783[/del]

Drain Bead (1): Zeriel 715

Jimmy Chitwood (2): [del]Oredigger 717 734[/del], One And Only Wanderers 751, TexCat 795

One And Only Wanderers (4): Jimmy Chitwood 757, Oredigger77 760, Freudian Slit 763, Mahaloth 815

Tom Scud (0): [del]Mahaloth 787 815[/del]

GuiriEnEspaña (1): Chronos 803

Mahaloth (1): storyteller 833

Meeko (0): Meeko always appears suspicious to me. He always comes across as paranoid and filled with OMGUS. His odd defense of kelly still stands out and pings me.

Freudian Slit (4): She too often does things that are suspicous. Like Peeker and meeko, this does make it difficult to get a good read on her. He weak reasoning, apparently opportunistic voting

TexCat (0): meh, I haven’t really noticed him too much. I do recall his name coming up as I investigated the vote switching by freudian, but there’s nothing that stood out to me.

Drain Bead (1): There was the odd comment from Tom Scud, but I tend to accept the explanation…still it was an odd comment from someone who usually plays here (I mean Tom Scud)

Jimmy Chitwood (2): I admit I’ve been pinged a couple of times. His more recent explanation of how he arrived at his vote made much more sense to me. There was something that pinged me on Day 1 as well, I’ll have to go back and check.

One And Only Wanderers (4): I really wasn’t at all pinged by the comments regarding NAF’s demise. It seemed like it could have easily been a Townie thinking out loud. However, I can see how some might interpret it as Scum plotting to get suspicion on Meeko (who already had a vote) without really putting their neck on the line. The self-sacrificing thing bothers me.

Tom Scud (0): meh

GuiriEnEspaña (1): I see Chronos’ case. I just think it’s weak.

Mahaloth (1): I was pinged twice by him toDay. Once for the “come on everyone, participate” comments, then again for jumping on the OAOW wagon late. He did give reasoning however, and it’s not a thought that didn’t occur to me. I like story’s comments regarding him, but then, story always has good arguments.

Chronos is someone I’d like to look over when I get home as well.

At this point, I’m probably most suspicious of Mahaloth, OAOW, and Freudian (not necessarily in that order).

#460. I said it felt to me like town was chasing its own tail, which you didn’t like because only scum would know for sure.

Love how the only comment about me is based on something that someone ELSE said regarding me.

story, there was an answer to my question earlier–you probably missed it in there. zeriel basically said that my generalization was the one he noticed first. Thing is, I’m 95% sure that the OAOW/Meeko** thing happened and was pointed out before I even made my FOS on zeriel…so I’m not particularly accepting that as a response–at best, it shows that zeriel is just as guilty of skimming as I am in this game. I’m not necessarily one who thinks that skimming is a definite scumtell, because I’ll admit it–I skim regardless of what team I’m on–I don’t have the time to read every single disjointed Meeko post for comprehension, for example. If I tried, I’d end up frustrated and with a lot less free time on my hand.

However, I do think zeriel is being a bit hypocritical here, and while I think it’s probably more OMGUS than scummy, if OAOW turns up Scum, I’ll definitely start to question zeriel’s motivations a bit more.