Suppose I went out into the middle of the Nv desert and opened a factory with 5,000 employees. What size town might develop around that say within 10 years?
Russia has a lot of these, called monotowns:
It mentions Tolyatti as an example, with a population of 700k and a factory employment of 106k. So about 7:1 in that case.
Dalnegorsk is another example, but they don’t give the factory employment. Following the cite, though, shows total factory employment of about 5400. Again, that’s roughly 7:1 vs. a population of 40k.
So I would suppose that’s a fairly reasonable number, and would give your town a population of 35k.
And there’s the capitalist version, with worker-towns planned out by corporations rather than the state.
Notably Pullman, Chicago. From a quick search, it looks like Pullman’s peak population before the economy crashed in 1893 was about double the size of the workforce of 6,000. But this was not a remote location.
A lot of it is going to depend on:
- What fraction of town services are taken by the company? I.e., does the company provide food, housing, etc., or is that expected to be provided externally?
- Are we talking a bunch of single male workers doing mining/forestry/etc. under rough conditions with no family, or is this expected to have more normal demographics?
How, exactly, are you planing on staffing your shiny factory in nowheresville?
If there’s nothing for miles around, are you going to build housing?
How about clinics and grocery stores. And schools.
In other words, it’s probably not very practical, unless you are the government.
It would certainly take a unique approach, Confidence in the project would be needed to gather investors. I keep thinking someone like Gates or Elon Muske must already have plans for starting towns like this. Ultra-modern is what I am thinking with easy access to more traditional suburban style homes in the same area. It would most likely require visitors for a good part of its economy. Vegas was built on tourism which is much easier to imagine.
Why do you speculate that they would want to do it in the middle of nowhere? To exert greater control over their workers? It sounds a bit… dystopian.
Recent movie - Victory, California. Superficially idyllic company town in the desert. Directed by Thirteen.
Unless you are making something incredibly dangerous, it’s pointless and counterproductive to site your factory in the middle of nowhere. Factories need raw materials, power, utilities, transportation connections, etc. Putting them on a piece of raw land means you need to provide all those things - for what gain?
One issue is cost of land and the other issue is speculation. As you say an infrastructure would have to be built so you would probably be speculating on a city of maybe 200,000 within 20 years. We have available labor right now that might be more inclined to settle an area like this. It might be logistically a good time to start moving manufacturing back out of China.
Any manufacturing that will be done here will be by robots, not armies of people sitting at tables…
“I will build something because if it turns out to be worth a lot of money I will be rich” seems like it’s missing a few steps. Are you an underpants gnome?
A factory town built in the middle of a desert, which requires the import of all food and water from external sources and suppliers, will require different types and levels of support staffing compared to a factory town whose remote countryside location lies between a river and farmland. Or a factory community built in orbit. It also depends on what exactly is being manufactured, and whether the raw materials are found locally or have to be brought in from elsewhere (cf. desert).
Consider: In the Manhattan Project to develop and build the atomic weapons that ended WWII, an entire secret city was built almost solely for the purpose of uranium enrichment — by definition a manufacturing town dedicated to the production of fissile material. This required food services and laundry and janitorial support and so on as you’d expect. But because of the highly classified activities happening in Oak Ridge, they also needed a much larger security staff, patrolling guards and highly trusted phone operators to listen to incoming and outgoing voice calls and mail processing staff to open and check letters and counter-espionage specialists to quietly roam around the surrounding towns and cities listening for any hints of information leakage. They also had to create jobs for any accompanying spouses, making work to keep them busy so they wouldn’t get bored and cause trouble; this also serves the purpose of helping camouflage the town’s real function by having other activity happening. (The book The Girls of Atomic City is commended to your attention.)
The point is, there are just too many variables in the question as asked to formulate a concrete figure beyond the broad average of ratios provided by existing historical examples in the monotown wiki article previously linked. If you want to think about this more rigorously and specify something that can be engineered, fine. But if this is blue-sky hand-waving, then the Russian and other examples are as good as you’re going to get.
Are 1800s-styled company towns illegal here in the us or they’re heavily regulated to where they have to let outside service providers exist like grocery stores and such ?
Is the actual goal of the thought experiment to build an isolated town, or to observe and quantify the consequences of secondary and tertiary population and employment (“economic impact”) around a factory without the distractors of a real-world town with more than one prime business? Is the geographic isolation just the “assume a frictionless surface” of economics?
Folks seem to be addressing the former interpretation with practical objections to building isolated factories when ISTM the actual question is simply “How much ancillary population and employment does a single factory job create if we filter out all the confounders and distractors?”
Musk is in fact building his new lithium refining plant in what amounts to the middle of nowhere here in South Texas.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-lithium-refinery-groundbreaking
All the literature says Robstown, but It really isn’t in Robstown. It’s just north of a small (less than 1,000 population) town named Driscoll. I suspect most of the workers will commute from Corpus Christi, but who knows, maybe Musk himself or some other developer will convince a farmer (all the surrounding area is farm country) to sell for purposes of building new housing.
As Disney demonstrated in Orlando, one can make a lot of money by surreptitiously buying up a large swath of comparatively worthless land and then putting a large job-attractive investment in the middle and finally selling or leasing the suddenly valuable land around your comparatively small seed installation.
Similar stories occurred around the construction of the DFW airport in the 1960s and the Denver airport in the 1990s. Although in those cases it was more a matter of savvy (or insider) speculators getting in early, not primarily the principal developer as in Orlando.
In the real world, nobody would be likely to site a factory in the middle of nowhere, but I think that’s a distraction away from the question. What’s necessary for the question is not that it be specifically a factory, but just that it’s the sole supporting industry of a community, and there are other industries that might be sited in the middle of nowhere. A mine might be a better example: There’s some spot in the middle of nowhere where a particularly rich seam of some sort of valuable ore is found, and so you put the mine there because that’s where the ore is. And then you need houses for the miners to live in and stores for them to buy food and schools for their children and so on.
For what gain would be the challenge to the developer, there would have to be a gain. I would imagine if billionaires took on a project like this it would most likely be a vanity project hoping to prove out a concept of some kind.
You (OP) might find this thread interesting. It’s about a land developer planning to build a large fully planed “utopia” community. The thread starts out pretty mysterious about who and why, but pretty quickly the mystery is revealed to be pretty mundane, just audaciously large.