I’ve not yet heard a precise definition of what people mean by “abolish” when they talk about abolishing the police. For the sake of this discussion, let us assume the dictionary definition:
Abolish (verb): formally put an end to (a system, practice, or institution).
Do these seem to be reasonable assumptions?
general lawlessness with respect to petty crime, traffic violations, DUI, burglary/theft, looting
gun owners taking law into their own hands to protect their property, resulting in rise of gun violence
decline of fire and ambulance emergency service due to lack of security
general atmosphere of fear in public spaces
negative economic impact on various businesses
reduction in large organized public events
impact on traffic and road maintenance
further erosion of public trust in government institutions
failure of institutional gov’t ability to enforce laws
creation of private police forces
further decline in policing in poor/disadvantaged neighborhoods
rise in organized crime
What do you anticipate to be the foreseeable short and medium term consequences?
What segment of society is likely to suffer the worst effects?
Or do you think this is an overreaction? Will quality of life of all citizens improve overall?
The most reasonable assumption I have regarding the abolishment of the police is that it would soon be replaced by an alternate policing organization, which conveniently would not have any relationship with police unions.
If the local governments didn’t establish such an organization, the local criminals would. It’s probably worth noting that there’s no guarantee that the new policing organization would any less murderous or corrupt than the current organization. (Particularly if we wait for one to emerge on its own.)
Perhaps something like what Camden, New Jersey did, " So in 2013, the mayor and city council dissolved the local PD and signed an agreement for the county to provide shared services. "
I believe the thought is that the rot has spread throughout many police departments, and applying patches or small changes won’t fix the problem, so the diseased existing organizational structure needs to be dissolved entirely and the useful parts of its functionality replaced with new organizational structure(s).
QFT, there is indeed a huge middle there in the OPs argument, so big that he leaves big ideas like what was done before in the US and leaves Harm Reduction out of the picture.
Massive increase in gun ownership as everyone realizes they’re on their own.
Cities and regions split into many tiny little enclaves of neighborhood watches each watching after their own.
Super high crime rate.
Foreign investment, tourism, students, immigration drastically decreased due to the spiraling violence and chaos.
Economy goes down the tubes.
Schools stop functioning because parents dare not let their kids out of sight anymore.
Business would cease to function because you can’t stop rampant looters or fraudsters.
Most ironically for black Americans, they would be getting murdered by white supremacists and others at far higher rates than before such police abolition ever happened. Black lives would now matter even less, not more.
Okay, let’s use Camden as an example. One relatively small geographic area taking a bold step in reforming (not abolishing, mind you) their police department. A dramatic action taken in a limited area with surrounding jurisdictions of general social peace and order. Now, blow it up to a national scale. How do you see it playing out?
Already did, it is really sad that you are ignoring the point I have made many times before, me and others do not think that it must be blow up to a national scale, just specific locations. So besides arguing from ignorance what you point here is a straw man.
I can tell you one thing that would definitely happen if the police were abolished: Donald Trump would win the 2020 election in a landslide the likes of which America has never seen before, and will never see again. This whole thing is an absolute gift to Trump and the Republicans.
This is just pithy enough to make it look as if you’ve cleared up a giant misunderstanding on my part. Except that you haven’t.
From my point of view, the problem with police and law enforcement is massively broken on a national scale. Now you say, it’s just a matter of abolishment in some unspecified number of locations. Fine. Which ones and how do you envision that working?
Using basic American civics logic, that is not so clear.
Anything that resembles an abolishing all over the USA needs the signature of congress and the president. If we are just insisting into going for unlikely hypotheticals I will have to say that getting that from the senate and Trump is not likely to be a gift for Trump and the Republicans as they will have to be willful participants on a reckless “one size fits all” solution.
All it’ll need is for a few blue cities in a few blue states to say they’re abolishing/defunding the police. Trump, Fox, and the Republicans will do the rest. Remember Willie Horton.
Uh, that is not what I replied to, your hypothetical declared the abolition as a done deal all other the USA, and that is not viable indeed, so what is left is to move the goalposts to this one.
IMHO there is a lot of reasons to do it in places like Minneapolis and other locations. That Trump and the Republicans will not do so in many red areas that do need reform leads me to think that it is more likely to me that those red areas will turn blue then.