Simple question. Difficult answer.
If the South Carolina primary tomorrow does not settle it then perhaps the debates on Tuesday and Thursday will.
Or if not, then an exorcism should.
What question your asking isn’t exactly super-clear. You mean: who will win the GOP nomination?
Romney. Newt would be an awful candidate. I can’t believe the GOP would let him win. Even if he wins in S. Carolina, every Republican functionary within a million miles of a TV camera will spend all of February unloading on him.
There’s no way Gingrich will win it unless Europe collapses in the next 3 months.
Parties sometime nominate the less electable candidate. But when the only thing holding the Party together is Obama hatred, it just seems really unlikely that they’ll pick the candidate that is not just less likely to win than Romney, but indeed leastlikely to win.
Electability will win the day for Romney.
I’m voting for Ron Paul.
The weird thing about that link is it shows Obama tied, roughly, or beating soundly each individual opponent but getting his hat handed to him by a generic Republican.
Yeah, if only the GOP could find Mr. Generic, the presidency would be theirs.
They have, yet Mitt seems to not poll very well.
nm
Both Romney v. Obama and Obama v. Generic GOP are likely within the MOE. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if most voters equate “Romney” with “Generic GOP” - he’s pretty much the ceiling in this field wrt electability. The question is whether GOP voters will go with that or take a chance on the guys they actually like.
Even if he wins in Florida?
Right now, Gingrich has the advantage of momentum. This momentum won’t last, however. Tonight on NBC is a Republican debate, then on Thursday there is another Republican debate on CNN, then, at the end of the month, is the Florida primary. So there is momentum until the end of the month. Then what? Then, there are a few debates in February and March, and, of course, Super Tuesday. Then, the Republican National Convention in August. Then, the Democratic National Convention in September. Then, finally, Election Day on November 6.
Can Gingrich use the momentum to win the Florida primary?
I really can’t see Gingrich keeping up his momentum throughout all of February. Romney will clean up in most of the caucuses during that period with his infrastructure and inherent advantages in those states and there are few scheduled debates (the only place Newt has an advantage). Then comes Super-Tuesday where money will buy ads. Gingrich has friends with deep pockets, but his superpac can only effectively attack Romney. I don’t know if you can win a nomination on bile alone.
People are talking seriously about the possibility of asking Romney to step aside in favor of an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush that the GOP voters won’t reject like a type-mismatched baboon lung.
Since the beginning, there’s been two basic theories for how this campaign will end: Romney is inevitable, and Romney is unacceptable. It seems more and more like, somehow, they’re both right.
Newt won another debate last night, handily.
He made the rest of them, especially Romney and Santorum sound like pull string dolls vomiting up the same recorded phrases over and over.
I think what turns a lot of people off about political candidates is they are boring and repetitive. “I know what it takes to lead”,…“I will make the tough decisions”,…“I know how to get America working again”. Please. Romney and Santorum are dullards.
(This applies to democrats too in general, and believe it’s a big reason Obama did well last election - he offers detailed responses)
If Newt continues on this path, and comes off mild mannered instead of pissed off, then he’s got the nomination (barring any real past bombshell coming to light that voters can’t let slide).
I’m not saying he would be or wouldnt be a decent president and putting his personal stuff aside, have you ever heard a candidate similar to Newt who has a full command of every issue and able to detail such concise responses?
I’m pretty sure that happened already. Might not lose him the nomination, will lose him the election.
Really? I thought Newt did rather poorly last night. Romney finally hit him and sort of knocked him back. Without the crowd frenzy he comes off as rather timid and meek.
I’m not sure it’s enough, but you can bet the lobbying charge will be blanketing FL between now and the primary, as well as all the ethics-related stuff and maybe some more seamy third-party allegations re: infidelity and sick-wife-leaving.
Romney: I only pay 15% in taxes!
Gingrich: That’s so horrible I want everyone to pay the same rate.
Romney: Actually, under your plan, I would pay nothing at all… nothing at all… nothing at all…
That debate was a real clunker, as far as I can tell. It’s a shame Newt can’t just attack at this massively vulnerable underbelly because his superpac runs on billionaires.
I have a better chance of beating Obama than anyone named Bush. His brother pretty much ruined the family name at the national level for the foreseeable future.
When do the sane, rational grown ups declare?
I have to wonder – is the GOP base really completely oblivious to how utterly loathsome Newt Gingrich is to the majority? 