I hope he doesn’t turn out to be like that weird fake wheelchair person everyone was so upset about, given this latest polling data. 
BrainGlutton, do you have a debate topic here, or at least an opinion or some questions of your own? You’ve been here long enough to know we prefer users add some content of their own OPs instead of just copying and pasting. Unless you post some further content or a real debate develops here (it’s not looking great so far), I will close this thread.
That whole Mediaite website makes me sad. The next article over was about Sarah Silverman offering to “scissor” some Romney supporter to “completion” if he’ll support Obama instead. I don’t even know what that means and don’t want to but jeebus, the whole American election period is insane.
Yes, and I’ve been here long enough to know that Elections is not GD (though it is a sort of spinoff of GD), and the sort of OP that might go in MPSIMS or IMHO if not election-related can sometimes be appropriate here, and it is not strictly necessary, in Elections, to frame an actual debate question in the OP. But if you insist, the debate topics suggested by these findings would be:
(1) Why such overwhelming AA repugnance for the Pub candidate this cycle? It’s like in 2008, but without the enthusiasm then, you know? Just having an AA incumbent shouldn’t be enough to account for it. Has the GOP just written off that vote forever, now?
(2) Can the GOP thrive without it? The same poll shows Romney leading Obama 53 to 40 among “whites” – as a bloc, not broken down by age or gender or anything else. But “whites” are not a monolithic bloc in America. African-Americans apparently are, now, at least in terms of party identity/support.
(3) Also of interest is Romney’s lead among rural voters and seniors. In the long term, that is not so much good news for the GOP as it sounds. Rural voters are a declining demographic in America, once a majority, but growing slowly, gradually more marginal for the past century at least, and that’s not about to stop. Seniors are an expanding demographic due to increased longevity – but I would suggest GOP dominance among them can’t last, but will decline from generational attrition, just as social/religious conservatism as such will decline from generational attrition. That is, the next generations to enter retirement will not think like those who are in it now. Their conservatism is a matter of generational culture, not age (people actually tend to grow more liberal as they age, not more conservative).
I’m thinking, IOW, that these poll results have implications not just for this election cycle but for American party politics as such, now and in future cycles.
(4) Obama’s 2-to-1 lead among Latinos also is of interest – that is definitely a growing demographic, and one the Pubs have hoped to capture based on Latinos’ religious, socially-conservative culture. Apparently that ain’t enough. Why not?
One point I haven’t seen brought up: Obama has significantly higher support than Romney among women, and yet overall, Obama and Romney are fairly close. This would seem to imply that Romney has significantly higher support than Obama, among men, but I’ve never seen anyone discuss that.
Yes, for years Republican presidential candidates have been winning a majority of men and Democrats have gotten a majority among women. I am not sure how long that’s been the case, but it’s been happening for a while.
Testosterone poisoning. Its why they are smarter than us, and also why we don’t care.
Time to repeal the 19th Amendment.
That–both parts of that construction together–has been the case since 1992.
The three Presidential elections before that, 1980-'88, showed a significant gender gap (women skewing Democratic, relative to men), but not so much as to reverse the overall lean to the Republican side.
In earlier times, women apparently skewed Republican to support Hoover and Eisenhower.
In earlier times, the GOP was not nearly so far-right, especially on social/cultural issues, as it is now.
So Romney likely has Alan Keys, Herman Cain, Clarence Thomas, and a SDMB poster? I’m sure they’re jumping for joy in the Romney camp
Well, four votes can be critical in a swing state, so if they’re all in Florida…
The bulk of GOP support is from non-college educated white men.
Who apparently vote at a higher percentage rate than any other demographic.
Me too.
The serious answer (or at least, a partial serious answer) is that the margin of error quoted is the standard deviation, and is treating the error distribution as Gaussian (for which standard deviation is a particularly apt measure). In many real-world statistical situations, usually including polls, the Gaussian distribution is an excellent approximation to the real distribution, and so this isn’t a problem. Obviously, though, when the measured value is within a standard deviation or so from an absolute cutoff like 0%, it’s no longer a good approximation, and a completely different statistical approach should be taken from the outset.
Cite?
As the demographic “non-college educated white men” constitutes less than 20% of the population, it is difficult to believe that the GOP gets the bulk of its support from this group.
btw, the educational group from which Obama got the greatest percentage support in 2008 was those who did not graduate from high school. The second highest was people with postgraduate education. Details here.
For the last several cycles, Democrats have been highly favored by women, Republicans somewhat favored by men. But men vote a lot more.
–Cliffy
Woman make up the larger part of the electorate. The Presidential vote in '08 was 53% female.