Well that’s the quarterfinalists all sorted then, bad luck for Tonga but a famous win nevertheless. I was plain wrong about Italy v Ireland, had a great time at the All Blacks game though.
I’m in broad agreement with Novelty Bobble’s picks above, except I think the Springboks will beat the Wallabies after cynically crippling Genia.
Carter’s out for the rest of the cup. As I said back in August:
You might want to check those All Blacks odds again Cicero.
Just checked and the All Blacks are still paying $1.72. So they have blown from $1.60 (roughly from 2 to 1 on to 6 to 4 on).
Still far too short for me.
Australia, RSA and England all around the 6 to 1 mark.
Latest odds I’ve seen show NZ 8/11 and I agree, too short. Even in a two horse race that wouldn’t be tempting.
RSA show as 15/2
Australia 7/1
England 9/1
Ireland 12/1
France 16/1
Wales 16/1
Argentina 275/1
If I were a gambling man, I would jump on the Saffers at that price, whilst the value is still there. England are too short and Australia are struggling with large numbers of injuries.
I see NZ v SA in one semi (principally due to the injuries that the Aussies are having to cope with), with SA winning due to the pressure that they’ll place on Slade and the fact that NZ may be a little undercooked (having cruised their group, they should stick 40 points on Argentina).
The other side of the draw is very difficult to call, for different reasons in both games. Ireland v Wales looks like it should be a cracker - both sides are in pretty good form and match up well against one another. In a pinch, I’d probably go for Ireland but wouldn’t be surprised if Wales do it instead. On the other hand, England v France should be the opposite of a cracker (a damp squib - whatever), as both sides look terrible. Both Wales and Ireland should win any prospective semi against either side (particularly if the semi is Ireland v England - England have a pretty terrible recent record against the Irish).
So I reckon SA v Ireland in the final. SA to win - probably not by much - less than 7 more than 3, I would say. If NZ get to the final (presumably due to a huge forward effort), even with Slade at 10, they’ll beat Ireland too.
My maths may be off - so please feel free to correct.
A tenner a piece on SA, Ireland and Wales would bring you in even if SA won it and make a tidy profit if one of the NH teams can do the business.
Actually, that’s bollocks isn’t it? Still, there should be a way to manipulate the odds to guarantee money coming back to you, if two of those three teams make the final (and they’re currently the ones I like).
Not sure the odds on Aus/SA/Ire/Wal would change substantially irrespective of who won their quarter finals so you’d be better served waiting and backing the two winners.
Too early in the morning for maths Cumbrian however, You could cover SA, Aus, Eng, Ireland and Wales all with a tenner to win and** if any two of those** reach the final you are looking at a profit.
But I refer you the bolded part. The bookies are heavily banking on an NZ win. I might expect their odds to lengthen if their performance against Argentina is less than stellar, and if they pick up further injuries.
Actually looking a bit deeper(here is a good site for odds across the board) it may be that NZ are lengthening already.
Very good point, didn’t think of that. (and proof if it were needed, as to why I’m a useless gambler) NZ play last of the four quarters so pick the winners of the rest and then wait and hope for NZ to play like goons.
I doubt that the bookies are banking heavily on a NZ win. They are keeping them short because they have so much exposure already for people who have been backing them over a period. They are not value- it is a reflection of the holding.
Indeed - from what little I know of bookmaking, the reason NZ are so short is almost entirely due to the amount of money on them already. Generally, the worst result for a bookmaker (in any event) is for the favourite to win, because that is, pretty much by definition, the result on which they have the most money to pay out. A win by one of the outsiders will cost them dearly in terms of the odds on whichever team it is, but that should be more than offset by all the losing bets on NZ that they get to keep.
Yes- I am not familiar with sports betting: however I do know horse racing.
Basically if you set your book at 100% you would break even no matter what horse won (this is as a bookie). Of course this never works out as you have taxes to pay, and bookies these days usually have (say) set their books to 110% which gives them a 10 % advantage. A lot of difference with a big turnover.
In this case the support for NZ would have been such that they have commitments pretty much so they can’t let the market give a real value. If they were setting a market now, I think the price on the All Blacks would be a good deal longer.
Personally I think O’Brien’s best position could be 8. Heaslip is living on reputation for a while back there. Leaves room at seven for Wallace (if he comes back after the World Cup) or an out and out groundhog like Jennings.
Got 20/1 on a South Africa v Ireland final. South Africa could have the beating of Australia and with Carter out who knows against the All Blacks.
As an Irishman I consider the other half of that bet a certainty!
I can see SA beating Australia, but I can’t see them beating the All Blacks unless the ABs lose more than Carter, or they play in the rain and the ABs reserve kicker chokes.
Ireland over Wales but not by much. They have a better kicker and the game looks to be close.
England/France will be won by whichever side locates second gear.
On current form, either of Ireland/Wales should beat either of France/England; “should” is a bad word to use about games involving England or France. I can see any of France/Wales/Ireland playing a blinder in the semis and then failing to raise their game again in the final, or I can see England reversing into the final without once looking like they deserve to be there. I can’t see any of them actually winning the thing, or even playing NZ particularly close.
Just a quick bump before tomorrow’s games.
First up is Wales v Ireland which should be a great contest. I’m still backing Wales to win by around 27-22.
Next up is England v France, neither of whom have impressed me. I believe that France will be stung into action after their loss to Tonga last week and despite rumours of dissent in their camp will turn on a big performance and take the English down 17-11.
Israel Dagg is out with injury. Apart from his spectacular performances so far, he is one of our local lads and the fans in the building are mourning him more than Carter.
I still think we’ll beat the Pumas, unfortunately the kid won’t bet against me this time, even though she won the last bet. I’ll have to make my own tea this weekend.
Reported for any Mod Action re link.
Wales-Ireland - too many points I reckon; if either side breaks 20, they won’t do it by much. Both sides, secretly, have very strong defences and, with the pressures of knockout rugby, I expect the number of try scoring chances to be at a premium. I think Ireland will win - just - but it will be mighty close.
England - I can’t be rational about this game and have the FEAR, as England should win but I can’t say that they will as it is based purely on the fact that France are the only team other than Argentina that have less form - rather than England being any good. England are actually on a hiding to nothing in this game. If they win, everyone will point at the French camp and say, “of course England won, France are in disarray”. If they get knocked out, everyone will say, “but of course, France are mercurial, can turn it on at any time and England have been poor in the tournament anyway”. I think England will win - I don’t believe it though.
Excellent summary of England-France which exactly matches my own opinion. I think the one thing we can guarantee is that it will be tense.
Wales - Ireland: The tenser and more defensive the game, the more it favours Ireland who have a great defence and (IMHO) the better loose forwards. Wales need to keep the game moving - O’Gara and O’Driscoll aren’t getting any younger and the Welsh backs have been looking seriously good. But more likely Ireland by 6 with O’Gara kicking everything and Wales wondering what might have been.
Tense and then some. The one thing England have shown in the tournament is a solid defence, while France’s has been anything but. I think if France go into their shells they’ll be ground down, lose narrowly and we’ll have a week of “Are England improving or were France just bad?” If they decide to give it a go anything could happen. Either way, no-one will be relaxing until it’s over.