Rumblings from Pyongyang

[MysteryFellow63427]

(I was going to post to this older thread, but in accordance with board policies I’ll just link to it instead.)

New rumblings from Pyongyang. [registration may be required?]

North Korea Is Said to Plan for Dynasty's Next Generation (Published 2005)

@NYTimes

TOKYO, Jan. 31 - North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, plans to stretch the family dynasty into a third generation, handing over power one day to one of his three sons, the South Korean media quoted North Korea’s state radio as saying in a recent broadcast.

He hasn’t said which son he wants to succeed him though… I wonder what’s going on? I recently read an interesting article in The Times that contained hints that N. Korea is in some serious turmoil. (This is supposed to be the link but I’m not sure if it’ll work.)

@The Times

In interviews for this article over many months, western policymakers, Chinese experts, North Korean exiles and human rights activists built up a picture of a tightly knit clan leadership in Pyongyang that is on the verge of collapse.
…
According to exiles, North Korean agents in Beijing and Ulan Bator are frantically selling assets to raise cash — an important sign, says one activist, because “the secret police can always smell the crisis coming before anybody else”.
…
An attempt to kill Kim would come as no surprise. Defections by party officials and army officers have increased as the elite senses that it faces disaster.

Are we going to see major upheaval in North Korea in the coming months?

[ITR_champion]

I am no expert on North Korea, but I will say this: it would be nice. If one of these party leaders or military officers was seriously dedicated to dismantling the communist regime and reuniting with the South, and that person took over, it would be a fine and peaceful way to eliminate the world’s most dangerous country.

[BrainGlutton]

@ITR champion

I am no expert on North Korea, but I will say this: it would be nice. If one of these party leaders or military officers was seriously dedicated to dismantling the communist regime and reuniting with the South, and that person took over, it would be a fine and peaceful way to eliminate the world’s most dangerous country.

But how do we know anyone aiming to take out Kim would be dedicated to dismantling the system or reuniting with the South? Maybe they’re just dissatisfied with Kim’s leadership. After the coup, it might be a case of “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

[UncleBeer]

Are we going to see major upheaval in North Korea in the coming months?

Only from the hippies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4157121.stm

[AHunter3]

@ITR champion

I am no expert on North Korea, but I will say this: it would be nice. If one of these party leaders or military officers was seriously dedicated to dismantling the communist regime and reuniting with the South, and that person took over, it would be a fine and peaceful way to eliminate the world’s most dangerous country.

Dismantling the North Korean dynasty would eliminate the United States of America?

[furt]

@BrainGlutton

But how do we know anyone aiming to take out Kim would be dedicated to dismantling the system or reuniting with the South? Maybe they’re just dissatisfied with Kim’s leadership. After the coup, it might be a case of “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

Because the old system is simply not tenable; the infrastructure has literally been decaying for decades. Which is not to say a new boss may not want to be as much like the old boss as he can, but he will have to find some way to, at a minimum, reequip the military and get some positive cash flow into the country. But introducing any sort of reform runs the risk of the changes cascading. Ask Gorbachev.

The Chinese have done a great job of combining authoritarian rule with increasingly open markets … but I think most China watchers will also say that that authoritarian rule is becoming slowly less strong. Frankly, I don’t think NK is decentralized enough (nor are the people at the top smart enough) to manage that sort of transition. I also expect that the CIA and South Korean Intelligence just might want to get involved.

From a self-interest POV, I think the smartest and best play for anyone taking over for Lil’ Kim, is to play the White House vs the UN to strike the best bargin for who gets to take the lead in the monumental nation-building enterprise that will be needed. It’s going to be a collosal mess for decades, and whoever is in charge will be hated by the populations in both NK and SK quite quickly.

Best to go down in history as the guy who gave up power voluntarily, take a hundred mill and a beach house on Cheju-do.

[Marley23]

@ITR champion

I am no expert on North Korea, but I will say this: it would be nice. If one of these party leaders or military officers was seriously dedicated to dismantling the communist regime and reuniting with the South, and that person took over, it would be a fine and peaceful way to eliminate the world’s most dangerous country.

There’s definitely a positive side to it, but the idea of North Korea becoming less stable is not comforting, as that could be dangerous too.

I think reunification, if anybody’s actually interested in it, is probably a very long way off because of the damage it would do to South Korea.