North Korea regime change

How will it go down?

I predict Kim gets “ill” and a China approved replacement succeeds him. There will be at least a two-month waiting period. So, I predict Kim steps down in or around Dec 30. Who will China replace him with?

On what basis do you believe the post of Head of State in North Korea is a gift in the remit of China?

Well it’s clear that China has a great deal of influence in NK, but yeah I agree. It’s not like it’s an officially appointed position.

And IMHO from what I’ve seen of Kim, he will “step down” in only the most euphemistic meaning of that phrase.

I doubt it. I think that eventually Kimmy will die (of natural causes pertaining to his rather interesting life style), and at that time the whole house of cards will most likely fall apart…and then the shit will hit the fan. But a coup? Leaving aside the China thing, I just don’t think any of the NK’s in positions that would actually benifit from Kimmy going down would do so for a variety of reasons…the crux being they are all in a sinking ship, they know it, and no one wants to make it sink faster. Only by keeping an extremely tight grip on things are then even holding things together as they are…which isn’t very good. In the event of some group or person trying to sieze power, its likely to all fly apart…and I think those in power know it. So…Kimmy will stay until he dies of a heart attack or high blood pressure or something like that…not posing for gun fire.

JMHO here.

-XT

Does Kim have offspring?

Appearently so (though he’s pretty reclusive):

-XT

The main problem with North Korea is it is SUCH a basket case no one wants it. South Korea’s biggest fear is re-unificication. They want to be one but no one in South Korea wants the enormous cost of such a thing.

China has enough problems without having to propt up North Korea that wants things. Right now the people have been so thoroughly oppressed they don’t miss much, they live at or barely above substanance level.

So you really have a two-tiered problem. No one wants KIM and they want him gone but then again no one can figure out what to do once he’s gone.

Huh? The north Koreans think he is the son of a God (Kim Il Sung). The South Koreans want reunification but economic hardship is recent enough in their minds (caused by hypocritical scumbags like Soros, its one reason that many Koreans I know vote Republican despite the fact that it is not in their best interests) that North Korea’s economy is a concern. The Japanese wishes that the legacy of Kim Il Sung would just disappear because they want everyone to forget they were an imperial power that treated its neighbors like dogshit for decades. China thinks North korea is an anachronism in the new age of Chinese free markets.