North Korea: How's it all going to end? Will it?

In My Humble Opinion
1

I’ve recently developed an interest in North Koreaand I’ve done a lot of reading on the internet and watched several documentaries.

My god, what an amazing, fascinating, scary place.

For those not in the know, North Korea is the most isolated, secretive nation on Earth. For over 50 years this socialist republic has been ruled with an iron fist, first by Kim Il-sung and now his son Kim Jong-il. These two men have had absolute control and have allowed virtually no personal freedom or communication with the outside world. Massive propaganda campaigns have pervaded every aspect of society for decades and at this point the country is now one massive personality cult singularly focused on self-reliance, isolating itself from the rest of the world, and perpetuating the image of their “God-King”. It makes Jonestown look like a kindergarten clique.

The country is in a shambles, with wide-scale poverty and economic stagnation. It has one of the worst human right records on Earth. Millions have died in famines. There is a massive concentration camp network where hundreds of thousands have been sent to die, even young children, often for simply being related to someone only suspected of sedition.

It just goes on and on, it’s crazy.

So, how long is this anomaly going to last in our ever-changing world?

What’s going to happen when Kim Jong-il dies?

Does everyone in the country really believe in the personality cult? Do they really not know?

If the country does fall apart or open up, what will be the impetus?

How does China, the USA, and South Korea factor into all of this?

Lot’s of questions, but man, what a place.

2

Almost makes you wish the Bushies had decided to blame N. Korea as its random country unrelated to the 9/11 attacks and toppled Kim Jong-il instead of Hussein.

I’ve actually been wondering the same thing as you have, recently. How long will the world allow something like this to continue? Since it’s not one country’s responsibility to deal with the problems of another country, it turns into no one’s responsibility.

3

Make no mistake, NK is a client regime of China. Oh, NK doesn’t think so, and this makes them something of a problem child for China. But the fact that they are propped up and protected by China is the key to their long-term survival.

The other thing keeping them going is fear on the part of South Korea and Japan, who keep bailing out NK with aid. They have a healthy fear of what NK could do to both nations if they decided that they were going down and wanted to take the South and Japan with them. I’ve seen some of the scenarios, and they’re truly frightening (see below).

Reasonably, barring some unforseen event, I expect that the NK regime will follow the same path as every other restrictive Communist regime. That being, as the old guard dies out and younger, more world savvy people rise to power, those restrictions will slowly fall away and be replaced by the same sort of authoritarian one-party socialist-capitalism we now see in China and are starting to see in Vietnam.

I’d say that they’re poorer and have a deeper hole to climb out of, but look at what the Khmer Rouge tried to do to Cambodia (kill the educated and retreat to a primitive, agrarian society) and consider that NK isn’t technologically backwards.

One slim possibility, should things get too out of control with NK, and it would probably take a few million refugees pouring into China to trigger it, would be a military intervention by the Chinese. Again, I consider this to be remote, and it is far more likely that the Chinese would simply move large numbers of troops to the border to attempt to seal it.

IF NK decided that the Suicide Method was all they had and launched an all-out attack on the South, Japan and US bases in the region (Yes, this is exactly what they would do), they would be crushed in the end, but the result would be MILLIONS dead in South Korea and Japan, major damage to US installations…and a Chinese invasion of NK, if only to prevent a US invasion from reaching their borders. It’s not a pretty picture. But you gotta figure that their leaders know this, know they’d have zero chance of living through it, and really are not that stupid. They only want us to think that they’re crazy enough to do it so that we are kept off-balance.
Retrospect: I could have written this better and made better points if I wasn’t extremely tired. I’ll take a look at this again tomorrow or the next day and see if I need to correct myself.

4

Tuckerfan did an earlier thread about this very interesting online documentary series: The Vice Guide to North Korea.

I highly reccommend it.

5

North Korea will become (by one means or another) a low-cost slave-labor camp for the South Koreans.

6

I suspect things will start to unravel towards the end of Kim Jong Il’s lifetime. Interesting book I had read discussed how meticulously Kim Il Sung prepared the son for the the role of leader and to achieve buy-in from the various party apparatchiks and the military.

The younger one is late 60’s and doesn’t appear to have had the same thing in place for a successor. Rumors about different sons being the favored heir may not be terribly reliable. But it does seem to indicate to me that there isn’t a conscious succession plan built around one individual.

My thought is that various individuals have certain power bases. When Kim dies, a new successor may take over, but I doubt he will have the full loyalty of the various power bases, whether its the army, the intelligence services or his sons. If chaos ensues, the Chinese will move to stabilize it.

While Chinese help would get rid of the extremely twisted state that they have now, it may not bring democracy the way we or the S. Koreans would want it. But it may provide a more stable regime.

Just my thoughts. If this goes the way of my other predictions in life, then the regime will collapse Tuesday with the discovery of rivers of chocolate and candy cane trees behind the DMZ.

7

IMHO–South Korea has seen the economic & social problems caused by the German Reunification, & wants no part of it.

North Korea, except for the aide sent to it, is essentially on its own, saving only the China scenario, as mentioned above.

This cannot end well.

8

That is actually really fascinating.

I am shamefully ignorant when it comes to North Korea and its future, but I will say this - the dreams of reunification are not as rainbow colored as they used to be in South Korea, at least among the younger generation. There is a generation of people who were separated from their families after WWII, and every time their reunions are televised the nation goes into an orgy of weeping and renewed determination to be reunited with “our brothers and sisters,” but after that generation dies out (which will be within the next few decades) I don’t think there will be any real incentive for South Koreans to long for reunification as we once did, or were taught to do at any rate.

9

At the end of the day, China, Japan and South Korea don’t want a failed state next door, especially if said state has nuclear weapons. For now, diplomatic efforts will continue, but if it looks like the shit is really going to hit the fan, there will be intervention of some kind.

10

North Korea, we can’t help you until you admit you have a problem. Say it. SAY IT NOW!