Run through the jungle: CA primaries tomorrow (6/5)

On the upside, a well-coordinated write-in campaign just might work in a district that has two Republicans on the ballot, like CA48 is likely to end up. Hey, it worked for Lisa Murkowski!

As Snoe pointed out, the Democrats best chance in CA48 today is if people rallied around Rouda which is what I think most people who studied the ballot and thought about strategic voting will do. However, I’m worried a lot of people are going to show up intending to vote a straight ‘D’ ticket only to find out there are about 12 'D’s on the list they have to pick from. And Kierstead (the potential ‘spoiler’ in the race) won the coveted poll position at the top of the ballot so he may draw a significant number of votes just from that. If this ends up biting the dems in the ass, I wonder if they’re going to change to process for 2020. Maybe a primary primary or super delegates (God help us).

Does California even allow write-in votes in general elections?

Not after Prop. 14 in 2010.

Another beautiful theory slain by an ugly fact.

I see that the Republicans dumped 1.5 million into this. This explains why all the mail I received had “help he help trump” on it.

I work with a lifelong Republican who’s disgusted by Trump and by the National GOP’s enabling of him. (That’s not a cheap political shot; that’s just how Mike sees things.)

So we were talking today about the primary and he told me that he decided to vote for Alison Hartson in the Senate race. Because de Leon is too much of a corporate hack.*

My jaw seriously dropped. Good for you, Mike, but goddamn. Save a little leftier-than-thou energy for those of us who didn’t vote for Mitt Romney.

*He did also cite her gender and her being a teacher as being positive points for her. Which I agree with! I just think she has no chance.

Out of idle curiosity and cause I couldn’t be fagged googling, how many candidates on the ballot?

Looks like 27. That’s tiny compared to the 135 on the 2003 recall ballot.

One of the oddities of California election law is that each candidate gets to list a profession. So there’s a “Blockchain Startup CEO” on the ballot.

It’s looking like the Dems didn’t get shut out anywhere! And the U.S. Senate seat is Dem v. Dem, Feinstein v. de Leon.

And Cox is in

Results

It will be interesting to see the actual race shaping up. Will the Republican voters be energized and turn out for Cox? Or will the Trump stamp keep some away? On the Democratic side, will the voters be energized and turn out for Newsom? Or will his past keep voters away? Will the Trump effect tip voters in Newsom’s favor.

I predict the GOP pouring money into the state now, and Trump scheduling a few rallies. Gotta do something to counteract those 3 million illegal votes that went for Hillary, yah?

Doing some number crunching for my district (CA48) shows some good news and bad news for Democrats. As mentioned above, one Democrat did advance to the November general election so they weren’t shut out. However, the total number of Republican votes for all candidates exceeded the total number of Democrat votes by 6,900 (12%) which is a pretty steep hill to climb over. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that, compared to the 2014 primary, it looks like Republican voting was down 14% while Democrat voting was up a whopping 38%. That probably won’t be enough to kick Rohrbacher out in November but it does mean that those districts that aren’t Newport Beach levels of GOPitude are all going to be competitive.

And it looks like we broke the record for all-time low primary turnout set 4 years ago. 4 years ago we hit an all-time low of 25.2%.
As of 9:07 this morning, reports show a turnout of 21.8%

Good news/bad news: The Nazi* Republican running for Senate came in 12th overall and 8th place R with a mere 1.4% of the vote. So that’s good.

On the downside, he still got 1.4% of the vote. Over 54,000 Californians voted for a Nazi (Over 9000 of them right here in Los Angeles County). More Californians voted Nazi than Libertarian. Right next door in Orange County, he got his best showing of 3.5%.

  • Not hyperbole - he actually identifies as a Nazi and ran on a platform of “get the Jews out of government”

Does that factor in the mail in votes? Sacramento County was 100% mail in (though there were 50-some spaces where you could go to vote at a machine. I did that because I hate mailing in my ballot, I am always afraid it won’t get counted, even though you can go to the County Clerk’s website to check to see if they got your ballot).

Gavin Newsome tweeted to Trump today to please come and campaign for Cox.

I lost all respect for Chiang when he started his negative ads. Like the LA Times editorial, I never did find out what he stood for.

People in Vallejo and Fairfield have to cross both the Carquinez and Bay Bridges if they work in San Francisco (either that, or go around the bay on a highway that’s one lane in each direction for quite a few miles, and then still pay a toll on the Golden Gate Bridge). However, I think there is a plan for some sort of discount for people who have to pay two tolls per day.

BTW, it appears to be passing - I say “appears” because Santa Clara County’s election return system doesn’t seem to be working at the moment, but it has a lead of about 80,000 votes with all of the other counties reporting.

Speaking of passing, San Francisco also passed its “no flavored tobacco products” ban, presumably meant at flavored vaping juice but also includes things like menthol cigarettes and flavored chewing tobacco, and reports are that Santa Clara County has recalled the judge who gave a Stanford student (and swimmer) only a six-month sentence for sexual assault. Reports say that he is the first judge to be recalled in California since 1932, but apparently they are not counting the de facto recalls of Rose Bird, Cruz Reynoso, and Joseph Grodin in 1986 (technically, they were mandatory “reconfirmation” votes; the current law is, a judge must face a “yes or no” vote every 12 years).

Will provisional ballots in LA county bump that up? I know there were issues with the voter rolls yesterday…
ETA: it looks from the CA SOS page like that turnout number doesn’t include late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots. Every 200,000 uncounted votes would boost turnout numbers one percent. So we won’t see a huge bump, but something, at least.