History suggests otherwise. Look at what has happened to other economies in wartime. WWI was catastrophic. The American Civil War came close to bankrupting the U.S., and pretty much did bankrupt the C.S. War bonds were selling at preposterous discounts, and the paper money was close to collapsing.
When nations get angry, they let secondary things – like feeding the populace – go by the wayside.
Your argument shouldn’t be that there’s too much at stake for the sanctions to persist. Instead, the argument should be that Russia will gladly keep on fighting, even when their entire economy is demolished. The sanctions (probably) won’t succeed, because nations don’t give a shit, once the bloody flag starts waving.
I think this situation is becoming increasingly alarming…more and more Russian troops and hardware moving into Ukrainian sovereign territory, more sanctions on the horizon from the EU and US, Europe’s heavy dependence on Russian/Ukranian gas reserves that Putin can essentially cut off when he feels like it…
An open war in Europe would be the last thing the world needs right now.
Kinda sucks when the three largest nuclear powers sign an agreement to guarantee your territorial integrity in exchange for you giving up your nukes, then one of those powers renegs…
I hope this is the first step towards complete independence. And for the record, **** the Galician crybaby fascists and mobocrats who call themselves the Government of the Ukraine. I hope they’re crying a few months from now when the Donetsk People’s Republic wins it’s independence.
The Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics are fighting for independence, in the short term. Their leaders may want to join Russia eventually, but I’m sure they’ll have a vote before that happens.
Speaking Russian is pretty important to them, yes. After all, the proximate cause of the rebellion was that the Galician malcontents who call themselves the Ukraine Government, banned the official use of the Russian language. Of course the war is about a lot of other things- economics, ideology, geopolitics- but the immediate cause was language.
I know this is an older thread, but since it’s relevant to some of the earlier discussion I thought I’d give an update…not on the situation in the Ukraine, but on the developing situation in Russia itself, where it seems their economy is in melt down. Granted, much of this has to do with the price of oil, but some of it has to do with those ‘laughable’ sanctions the west imposed with increasing severity on Russia. And no one seems to be stepping up to bail the Russian’s out at this point.
I don’t know what all the implications are (I’m guessing ‘bad’ would be mild) for what a complete melt down in Russia would mean not just to Russia or the region but to the world, but thought I’d post it here instead of starting a new thread on a situation that’s just developing at this point.
“Melt down” is relative. Compared to the 90s wilderness, this current “melt down” is lap of luxury. Russians are very used to periodic severe austerity. Don’t make the mistake of thinking anything like this will bring Putin down (or even change his mind much).
Maybe this will teach the Ukes not to take to the streets like a bunch of jabbering monkeys at the zoo next time they don’t like the actions of their government.
His most significant opposition in Russia is the Communists, who I do like. a lot.
If he falls, Russia is going to be ruled by Zyuganov more likely than by any wussified, ‘liberal democracy’ degenerate, so I like that just fine.
Zyuganov and any of his allies are probably going to be more authoritarian and at least as nationalistic as Putin, and the communists have officially endorsed the DNR / LNR liberation, so whatever comes out of this mess, I think I’ll like it a whole lot more than you and your sort will.
Will the communists and Zyuganov be able to change the price of oil on the world market through their fervent patriotism and honor of the people? Because if not, they will be as fucked as Putin is. You can spin this anyway you like, and root on whoever you like, but if the price of oil doesn’t go above $100 a barrel fairly soon they are all fucked no matter how you slice it. And if it stays at the levels it current is today or drops further for more than a few months then they are going to need that price to be even higher…MUCH higher…to save their asses.
But you keep on blaming the Ukrainians and putting them down, if that makes you feel better.