China might be interested in prolonging the war because it keeps a portion of the US’s attention there instead of on China. They definitely don’t want Russia to collapse. Chaos on your border isn’t a good thing, and China knows who their main adversary is. Russia is an ally in that fight.
OK, if NATO doctrine is based on using air superiority instead of artillery, then let’s give Ukraine air superiority. Giving Ukraine all the aid they need, right up front, so they can end this war quickly and decisively will be cheaper, in the long run, than slowly trickling the aid in. And it shouldn’t need to be said that both are cheaper, in the long run, than not supporting Ukraine.
And China might be interested in prolonging the war, because as long as the war is on, everyone else has sanctions against Russia, and when everyone else has sanctions against Russia, Russia is forced to do business with the few countries who will do business with them, at rates highly favorable to those other countries. You don’t think China is paying full price for Russian oil and gas, do you? But Russia is accepting what China is paying them, because the alternative is zero.
I don’t think China regards us as an adversary, per se. The goal of Xi and his government is to make China as great as possible, without caring how any other nation in the world does. If China could achieve greatness by grinding us into the dust, they would, and if they could achieve greatness by carrying us to greatness with them, they would do that, too.
This goes back to the earliest discussions in the first thread though. Everyone in NATO is afraid that, that level of support will push Putin to the Nuclear option.
Yeah, but the border between Russia and China is full of nothing and more nothing. It’s not like millions of Siberians are going to march through Mongolia, headed for Beijing. European Russia could totally devolve into chaos without affecting China one iota. Too many -stans in the way. In fact, chaos in Russia might even be better for China than war between Ukraine/NATO and Russia.
China are benefitting from cheap Russian oil and gas, but mainly because if Ukraine falls or becomes too costly to support it might severely weaken the west’s appetite - and perhaps even its ability - to support Taiwan.
Right, they get to suck Russia dry of oil at a discount, while the west bleeds itself dry of conventional arms supplying Ukraine. That Russia and Ukraine might literally be bled dry in the process is incidental.
They would also be breaking article 16 of the UN charter:
“A State which aids or assists another State in the commission of an internationally wrongful act by the latter is internationally responsible for doing so if: (a) that State does so with knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act; and (b) the act would be internationally wrongful if committed by that State.”
The UN has already declared Russia’s invasion to be illegal, so China supplying lethal weapons would be a clear violation of this and potentially other articles of state responsibility.
And the consequences of that, are…?
Sanctions perhaps? I don’t know in truth. But China likes to pretend it believes in an international order.
What a ridiculous way to lose a war. A dozen countries can’t out supply Russia?
The Guardian blog
How did that get past the inevitable Russian veto? I thought that the UN couldn’t do anything if one of the Big 5 vetoed it.
I think it was a General Assembly vote. Those are generally just for show.
I keep reading - bi-weekly, it seems - highly conflicting reports on RU and/or UKR running out of artillery shells…
seems to be a lot of fear-mongering/clickbaiting going on in the media-sphere with regards to supplies on both sides …
I think this is the bulk of it.
Normally I’d dismiss the report. But it’s a statement from Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief. You would think he’s getting intelligence briefings on Ukraine.
He probably is lighting a fire under some countries to take action. There is munitions supply problem that needs attention.
Who has an agenda. Not a bad or wrong agenda necessarily, but an agenda. As I’ve mentioned before these people are generally media savvy. If he can panic the public (or just certain officials) into putting pressure on stubborn or inertia-bound governments to speed up munitions deliveries via raiding strategic stockpiles, well…that accomplishes a task he probably wants accomplished.
Key term here^.
For obvious reasons, no country in the EU want’s to weaken it’s defense posture during an active conflict in Europe.
So contributors to the war effort have thus far been trimming their inventories with enough to help, but stopping short of compromising their sovereign security.
Now there are officials saying this method will come up short of a Ukrainian victory.
Tough decisions ahead…
“The Russian troops in Transnistria must be expelled.”
snip: Senior commanders of the Ukrainian Army have previously offered to help Moldova rid itself of the Russian soldiers in Transnistria.
snip: According to various estimates, more than 20,000 tons of ammunition have been stored there since the Soviet era.
Depending on condition, a successful acquisition could provide a new ammo source for some of that captured/acquired soviet hardware.
Remember kids, passing on the right is dangerous!
Well, that’s a thumb in Putin’s eye.