Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Awesome. They were recently decommissioned and in good condition. Donated to Ukraine. :wink:

How are they used? Troop Carriers?

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3822/9463656737_47f6245e5e_b.jpg

Well, the people not being invaded next might notice.

“The Collapse of Russia” isn’t about Putin and his cronies ending up standing in bread lines. As you say, even in an impoverished Russia, rich is still pretty rich. What it’s really about is Putin et al. not having the resources to continue threatening their neighbors. $100 million buys a lot of caviar, but not so many tanks, and it’s the tanks we care about.

Russia could, if it got its collective head out of its collective ass, become an industrial power house that could threaten its neighbors, but that would require almost completely eliminating the culture of corruption the entire government and society have spent decades building up. I’m not sure anyone in any moderately high position in Russia even knows how to run things in a non-corrupt manner. Fixing this would require turfing out most of their leadership, and building it anew, which would take years, maybe decades, and has no guarantee of success. But there’s no indication that anyone in Russia is actually interested in taking on that work.

It worked with the Soviet Union, with the ‘Star Wars’ bluff.

What a transformation - by both men.

There’s another video showing Putin watching Zelensky perform, but that’s edited/fake. This one, apparently, is not.

Damn, Zelenskyy looks so young in that video.

Then again, he looks so damn young in a video from just last year, too.

That and scouts. The UK used them to move special teams around, like anti-aircraft units. Sounds like just the thing the Ukrainians need.

It’s apparently from 2013, so a year before the current Russo-Ukrainian War began in Crimea and the Donbas.

Here’s another clip, of a younger, more idealistic Solovyov, that he’d probably prefer the world not to remember:

Here, Solovyov is confronted with that video - note that this video is PARODY/FAKE, from the makers of the funny Solovyov video in the previous thread.

It’s speculated - by Russian milbloggers - that this is to avoid the ignominy of yet another video of Ukrainian soldiers taking down the Russian flag, stamping on it and restoring a Ukrainian flag to the pole.

There are indications that the liberation of Kherson may be approaching.

There’s speculation on the Ukrainian side that this may be an effort to deceive. The numbers of Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnieper appear to have increased recently.

Russian flag comes down in Kherson, but Ukraine sees a trap (msn.com)

Here’s another article on the subject:

So… it’s a trap!

?

It’s a fully operational battle station.

The local Russian command may not know what happens next.
Cite Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3 | Institute for the Study of War

I’m just WAGing here, but my prediction is that the Russians withdraw all the seasoned troops and leave a bunch of new draftees holding the Kherson bag. Then when there’s lots of Ukrainian troops in the city, they blow the dam.

So I’d think about not taking Kherson directly but rather taking the area around it (especially the dam) and leave it isolated. Then strongly encourage all its defenders to surrender.

Seizing control of the dam seems like a top priority.

But, the Russians would expect it.

We know they’ve brought in several thousand mobiks to the west bank of Kherson. The conventional wisdom is that they’re intended to serve as a meat shield while seasoned troops and heavy equipment escape to the other side.

I have the feeling Rus. intends to try to replicate the Ukrainian strategy used in Sieverodonetsk, where the bridges were blown but they continued to supply light infantry holding the city via boats at night and force a house to house battle. This had the effect of making Russians attempting to enter the city take high casualties. From a Rus. standpoint they already know they’re going to lose Kherson and sustain the associated morale hit, so making it costly for Ukr. to achieve this will soften that blow and will have the added benefit of destroying the city and all it’s economic benefits too. If Rus. intends to do this they’re going to need some seasoned troops for the defense and not a bunch of demoralized draftees going through alcohol withdrawal.

Satellite and drone reconnaissance will be helpful in determining the Russian positions.

Is there any reason for Ukrainian troops to rush into entering the city?

Cut it off from supplies, cut the electricty into the city and let whoever is waiting get very cold and miserable.

I’m sure the civilian population will enjoy that. Not sure if the Ukrainian forces will abandon their philosophy of freeing and aiding Ukrainian citizens.

If the Russians ever did plan to blow the damn, even as a last-minute contingency move, it should already be wired with explosives. So seizing it successfully will be very difficult.

But then we have to put in the Russian Incompetence Fudge Factor (RIFF). It’s entirely possible that none of them thought of this ahead of time, or they all figured it was someone else’s job while they were busy looting.