I was referring specifically to artillery. The Russian Air Force seems unwilling to attempt air superiority until the Ukraine AA missiles are are gone, which would seem to be up to the ground forces to do. Kind of a chicken and egg dilemma.
and now that the UKR have a fairly consistent 85% “downing-rate” of cruise missiles, it seems even less likely that the RU will throw a lot of flying-irons into the battle …
a measly 15% success rate gets expensive very fast.
Air superiority in a modern-type conflict seems to be a secondary goal. As long as air power is even at 70/30 balance, the cost is way too high. With UAVs, most goals can be accomplished without exposing expensive wetware to losses. Hell, just a simple cheap quad with transcevier capability is enough to give a squad over-the-ridge info, and quads are really small targets that can be hard to spot.
You get control of the skies after the other guys’ air force has been beaten down, because fighting in the air, with pilots, rapidly drains the graft pool, and Russia can only survive with lots of graft.
Based on nothing but a swag I’m making the beginning of March as the start of Putin’s departure clock.
a couple more of Vlads buds left us last week
The Russian Air Force doesn’t operate like a separate command. They operate in support of the Army artillery and ground troops. They don’t regularly practice Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD). Training funds are limited compared to NATO/Western Air Forces (perhaps some graft?). Hours are much less than western standards. The Air Force also lacks an inventory of precision guided munitions. Expecting a walk-over, the pilots were deeply surprised by the Ukrainian air defenses. It’s only gotten harder for them with in influx of short and medium range western missile systems. Here’s a rundown of current and expected system. Protecting The Skies: How Does Ukraine Defend Against Russian Missiles?
Artillery. Russia began with a huge edge in artillery systems; guns and MLRS. This is a current overview of donated artillery. https://www.csis.org/analysis/expanding-equipment-options-ukraine-case-artillery
Adding to the Ukrainian side of the equation is the inclusion of HIMARS and Excalibur 155mm shells and their precision targeting capability; these systems are combat multipliers vs. area bombardment. Both sides are experiencing ammunition shortages. In addition, Russian artillery tubes are near end-of-life and are subject to shortages and missing repair parts. Many of the latest western systems outrange their Russian counterparts - a big factor. Who can ramp up production fastest? Can NK and perhaps Chinese stocks enter the picture?
Mobility. The Ukrainian breakout in the North was eye opening but shouldn’t have been. Poorly trained/equipped opposition, limited defense in depth; the light Ukrainian forces exploited gaps and used mobility rather than massive tank formations to penetrate the rear areas. That were the key is, mobility. The number of western tanks is small but the Bradley, CV90s, and other IFVs are capable to duplicating the type of breakthru seen earlier.
I’m not rah, rah. People are dying and this will continue. The deck is not stacked in Russian favor and Ukrainian forces are equal or ahead in a number of areas. Morale counts heavily.
Speaking of Russian aircraft. They’ve misplaced a fully functioning Beriev A-50 reconnaissance plane in Belarus. And then there were 8.
Interesting infographic by AFP showing the advances of each side by day.
A BBC piece on the propaganda war. Somehow it’s all been faked? Which is nonsense, of course.
Go spend some time on the Breitbart comments section. It’s insane, the number of people who:
Believe Ukraine was overrun by Nazis
Believe Putin is the savior of a white Christian people
Believe the US is manufacturing this war
Outright love Putin
Seriously. I know Breitbart isn’t representative of a huge part of the population, but enough that it disturbs me.
To quote Bartleby the Scrivener: “I would prefer not to.” 
What is meant when people (whether Putin or alt-right Americans) refer to Nazis or neo-Nazis in Ukraine? Is this about fascism/authoritarianism, antisemitism, or something else?
Mostly these guys:
There are Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, but then, there are Neo-Nazis almost everywhere, including Russia. Ukraine probably would have had a better chance of dealing with these guys if they hadn’t had to deal with a Russian-backed Civil war the last decade or so.
It was one of Putin’s justifications, and some on the American right have seized on it to get in line behind Putin. Whether they really believe it or are using it as cover I can’t say.
During the Second World War, German Nazis were able to convince some people that Russians were worse than Germans, leading to the theory that if one is anti Russian, one is a Nazi.
Modding:
Please drop the Nazi discussion in this thread now. It is well covered and if there is more to add, a new thread would be better for it.
(Snipping out parts we’re directed not to discuss.)
I expect that a significant portion of the comments are a part of Russia’s disinformation campaign. While Ukraine is winning the propaganda war, Russia is still putting out theirs.
Fog of war and all that. Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian drone or two deep in Russian territory – naturally “probably targeting civilian infrastructure”.
Not sure if this is the place to post this, but do you think it’s guaranteed that Putin is going to want to ‘run’ for re-election in one year?
Putin’s aide says the leader ‘isn’t up to’ running for president again (msn.com)
Most here would agree this is really Putin’s war. What if the war continues throughout 2023 to go as badly for Russia as it has been and Putin decides one way to slip out the back, Jack is to announce he’s not running, and let the fallout for the war be the next guy’s problem?
Had that guy been carrying 20kg of explosives, would it have normally exploded on crashing?