Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[Frodo]

The russians would have to go through Ukraine to invade Moldova, something they seem to have some trouble with, at the moment.

[carnivorousplant]

@Euphonious_Polemic

I’m not convinced that at this point it would even be possible. What army is Putin going to use to do this? And how exactly will they get there?

Recall the thermonuclear war game of many years ago, where the winner’s avatar walks outside to a barren radioactive desert, and proclaims, “I win!”

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Fiendish_Astronaut

Even the bungling Russians couldn’t mess up that invasion.

How do the bungling Russians get there? I know there are some Russian troops there currently, but I’m not convinced they are trained and equipped well enough to take over a country. How would additional equipment, reinforcements, ammunition arrive? Through the port of Odessa after it falls to the Mighty Black sea Russian fleet?

Now that we know more about the Russian army preparedness, logistics etc, I’m thinking that Moldova would not need an actual standing army. Maybe just some farmers with guns and tractors would be enough.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

A contingency plan that I hope Ukraine/Moldova has is to send drones to wipe out the

Cobasna ammunition depot

in the event of Russian moves against Moldova.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

@Frodo

The russians would have to go through Ukraine to invade Moldova, something they seem to have some trouble with, at the moment.

@Euphonious_Polemic

How do the bungling Russians get there?

I know this. I didn’t think I needed to make it clear that obviously they would have to get through Ukraine first. And they would have to completely finish off Ukraine too otherwise the invaders would be surrounded by enemies.

[carnivorousplant]

@Euphonious_Polemic

I’m thinking that Moldova would not need an actual standing army. Maybe just some farmers with guns and tractors would be enough.

Motor boat over there and start shooting and raping (perhaps not in that order) some farmer’s wives and daughters.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

I think Putin’s plan for Moldova is to foment dissent and orchestrate a pro-Russian coup.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@carnivorousplant

Motor boat over there and start shooting and raping (perhaps not in that order) some farmer’s wives and daughters.

Gonna be a long motorboat ride, first under this bridge in Ukraine, and then 40 km up the Dniester Estuary (held by Ukraine), with an average depth of 1.8 meters, and then through some swampland to Moldova

[Horatius]

You’d think the example of what’s happening right next door would preclude such a plan working now. I can’t imagine anyone being so pro-Russian that they’d invite that kind of shitshow into their own homes.

[carnivorousplant]

@Euphonious_Polemic

Gonna be a long motorboat ride, first under this bridge in Ukraine, and then 40 km up the Dniester Estuary (held by Ukraine), with an average depth of 1.8 meters, and then through some swampland to Moldova

Well, tow that big 'ol aircraft carrier over there.

[carnivorousplant]

The first map I found showed them as having a coastline. Google Maps shows a revision of some sort regarding the Black Sea.
Never mind.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Horatius

You’d think the example of what’s happening right next door would preclude such a plan working now. I can’t imagine anyone being so pro-Russian that they’d invite that kind of shitshow into their own homes.

Agreed. That’s why I suspect these plans were the pre-Ukraine invasion plans. As in “This is what we plan to do next”.

I hope the only plan now is which bunker Putin is going to hide in before his demise.

[carnivorousplant]

One on the ground floor.

[Elmer_J.Fudd]

I recall Lukashenko letting the Moldavian cat out of the bag shortly after the invasion began last year.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Some background on the Moldova situation:

In Moldova, where pro-European president Maia Sandu was elected in 2020 with 58% of the popular vote, the situation could hardly have been more different. Periodically over the past few weeks, in the capital of Chisinau, tens of thousands of citizens have indeed taken to the streets to chant “Down with Maia Sandu” and “Down with the dictatorship.” However, their presence there is due less to personal initiative than to a well-funded opposition movement, financed from abroad, which organizes buses and compensation for participants from the country’s provinces.

The protests themselves are led by the Shor Party, which received 5.74% of the popular vote in the country’s July 2021 parliamentary elections. The party’s namesake, Ilan Shor, a member of parliament, is presently living in Israel. In October 2022, Shor was added to the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions list, which explains that he “was previously arrested on money laundering and embezzlement charges related to the 2014 theft of $1 billion from Moldovan banks,” and that in 2021 he “worked with Russian individuals to create a political alliance to control Moldova’s parliament.”

Despite warnings from Western officials and from President Sandu herself that Russian agents were seeking to destabilize Moldova, domestic security officials appear to be keeping the situation under control. In recent weeks, groups of “soccer fans” from Serbia, “boxers” from Montenegro, and returning “tourists” from Turkey have all been denied entry to Moldova based on the suspicion that they were Russian agents sent in order to provoke clashes at upcoming protest demonstrations.

Russian TV shows Moldova's protests as pro-Russian, Georgia's as U.S.-Led

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Walken_After_Midnight

Despite warnings from Western officials and from President Sandu herself that Russian agents were seeking to destabilize Moldova, domestic security officials appear to be keeping the situation under control.

I’m confused by the term “Despite” here.

From context, it seems they mean “Due to warnings from Western officials”

[Walken_After_Midnight]

I think the “despite” refers to “Russian agents [were] seeking to destabilize Moldova”, but a sentence-ologist would need to unpack it.

[mordecaiB]

Definite hit on one of the prop blades. Either a bent or broken tip on one. Totally looks like an unintended hit, just a pilot that’s not as good as he thought he was.

@Love_Rhombus

They were setting up cameras to “to film transport infrastructure used to deliver aid to Ukraine” and preparing sabotage plans. One possible target of their cameras was the airport Biden used to fly in for his Kyiv visit.

Good one for Poland. This, along with their announcement that they are for sure sending MiG-29s to Ukraine gets them a big thumbs up.

@Johnny_L.A

In other news, Russia is still failing to surround Bakhmut.

I think they may set a new record for days of failure to surround a city that brings them no significant military advantages.

@Euphonious_Polemic

Cobasna ammunition depot

Such a simple target too. I believe almost all of Russia’s troops are located there. 1,700 if I recall correctly.

@Walken_After_Midnight

I think Putin’s plan for Moldova is to foment dissent and orchestrate a pro-Russian coup.

From Feb 23rd. upthread:

@Walken_After_Midnight

Here’s a statement the Russian Ministry of Defence released yesterday:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628600598663774209

They may as well just have Putin go on live tv and say he plans to stir up trouble in Moldova and blame it on Ukraine.
[/quote]

Took him a little time, but there it is.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Fiendish_Astronaut

An FSB building is burning in a town near the Ukrainian border. Normally I take no pleasure in hearing about anyone dying, but I would share no tears about FSB losses.

Fire at security building in Russia's Rostov-on-Don - BBC News

Looks like there’s an evening performance:

https://twitter.com/Watchma51035016/status/1636489068975366147

KradOfanSpirit

[Nightaudit]

Bingo