Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Sounds much worse than dropping grenades.

I threw one live grenade in my life. Target was probably 50 feet from me. I still remember how it shook the ground.
Nasty stuff…

I think it’s more likely that’s a Russian propaganda stunt than a Ukranian attempt.

Russian spies have been more effective than their military. Well, that’s a low bar to clear. OSS 177 has been more effective than them.

The Global South is now consolidating.

From the Cuban President:

Is this significant for some reason? Cuba is a single-party authoritarian regime, where political opposition is not permitted, with a history of poor relations with the US.

Only two of the members of BRICS are “global south” so I’m not sure what you mean by saying that. Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE are not “global south” either. Oh, and one of the replies to that linked tweak states Mexico has NOT applied to join. Argentina and Nigeria are “global south”, but that still makes “global south” a minority in BRICS even if all those potential members join.

So no, the global south is not consolidating.

I’m not sure what it would matter even if they did consolidate. What am I missing?

I actually thought they would be a lot more effective. With the large number of pro-Russian people already in Ukraine I would have expected a well entrenched network at the start of the war.

From the article: “Russian special services,” says the report, “lack the honesty to report accurately about their own efforts. There appears to be a systemic problem of over-reporting one’s successes and concealing weaknesses to superiors.”

That same rot is everywhere in their systems, it seems.

Does it seem to anyone else that Ukraine is trying as hard as they can to draw as many Russian forces into Bakhmut as they possibly can? This headline says it all.

I suppose if Russia’s best and most capable forces and the resources to support them are heavily committed in Bakhmut, they aren’t going to be elsewhere. Say, for instance, defending in a location where a major counter-offensive will strike. This feels like the sort of strategic misdirection we saw in the weeks prior to the Kharkiv counter-offensive.

I’m not sure it would matter either, I was correctly an incorrect statement. BRICS is not the “global south”.

Not only that, but Putin keeps pushing Wagner to take Bakhmut and lose even more troops, weakening Prigozhin in the process.

After first making sure Wagner committed so many atrocities and war crimes that they can’t surrender or defect.

Yep, kinda boxed in and dependent on supplies at Putin’s discretion. Not that Wagner wouldn’t have done it on their own, but they certainly got a push and all the publicity they needed.

Not sure if this is the right place or not but it’s all connected so…

The US recently charged an ostensible Brazilian as a Russian spy. This is almost certainly a reprisal for that.

Russia has arrested journalists before and swapped them back for numerous people.

Coincidentally, a notoriously pro-Russian American will momentarily be in custody on Tuesday. Can we make a trade?

Finland is all but accepted into NATO

This doubles Russia’s border with NATO and, perhaps more importantly, blocks Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea behind Finland and Estonia, another NATO member. More broadly, it cements Putin’s utter failure at geopolitics and reinforces his status as a leader of a pariah nation, one who single-handedly reversed Finland’s longstanding tradition of careful political maneuvering and deference to Russian interests with outright defiance of Russian desires and solid positioning in a defensive alliance which, let’s be honest, is very much still a counterweight against Russian aggression.

Finland went the entirety of the Cold War without picking a side. Putin convinced them to join one, in order to oppose him.