Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
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3375

Institute for the Study of War

“ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, April 2. This report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2”.

snip: “Fomin’s assassination at Prigozhin’s bar is likely part of a larger pattern of escalating Russian internal conflicts involving Prigozhin and Wagner”.

3376

Hmm… anyone else hearing long knives being honed?

3377

No, but I suspect there are windows of opportunity being opened …

3378

Relevant, inasmuch as the special operation caused it, Finland is now officially a NATO country.

3379

As that link isn’t resolving for me:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/04/europe/finland-joins-nato-intl/index.html

I think this is good news indeed.

I bumped the main thread for this:

3380

Oh no, we now have it on good authority that Russia will in very short order WIN the conflict.

3381

More serious news. Putin is allegedly going to replace Wagner PMC forces with a different contractor that he feels he would have more control over. The Article does not name who that might be, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear it’s Shoigu’s newly created private army, Patriot PMC.

3382

Putin is making sure that none of the potential knives at his back are sharp. I guess Patriot is more of a threat now and takes its place on the grinder.

3383

So, push Prigozhin out the closest window and give his mercenaries to someone else.

3384

Shifting forces in the middle of a war doesn’t seem wise. The new troops will have to get used to the area, terrain, ect. And many Wagner fighters might not be too pleased.

3385

That’s why I say shove him out the window and get the same guys a new Fearless Leader.

3386

Latest map of Russian offensive in Bakhmut:

3387

Strange fact.
Both sides are using the original Maxim belt-fed machine guns, a World War I mainstay “patented in 1883. Timeline-wise this weapon was designed closer to the beginning of the American revolution in 1776 than it was to the current Ukrainian conflict.

3388

Today’s aid package, 4/4/2023.

The capabilities in this package include:

  • Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; Version not specified.
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); Unitary HE or billion BB warhead not specified.
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; Type not specified.
  • 120mm mortar rounds; Likely HE.
  • 120mm and 105mm tank ammunition; No indication if HEAT, APFSDS-T, HESH, MP. Also no details if the APFSDS-T rounds are DU.
  • 25mm ammunition; HE or APDS-T.
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Model not specified.
  • Approximately 400 grenade launchers and 200,000 rounds of ammunition; Wild if it’s MK19 launchers, probably the under receiver M203/M320 launcher. Most likely HEDP ammunition.
  • 11 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
  • 61 heavy fuel tankers; Good for a breakthrough counter attack.
  • 10 trucks and 10 trailers to transport heavy equipment; Less wear.
  • Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
  • Spare parts and other field equipment.

Under USAI, the DoD will provide Ukraine with: (Cash account for Ukraine buy stuff directly from US manufacturers.)

  • Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); Probably AIM-120s.
  • Nine counter-Unmanned Aerial System 30mm gun trucks;
  • 10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems;
  • Three air surveillance radars;
  • 30mm and 23mm anti-aircraft ammunition; Soviet/Warsaw pact weapons.
  • 130mm and 122mm artillery rounds; Soviet/Warsaw pact weapons.
  • 122mm GRAD rockets; Ibid.
  • Rocket launchers and ammunition; AT4s and similar.
  • 120mm and 81mm mortar systems;
  • 120mm, 81mm, and 60mm mortar rounds; Mostly HE.
  • 120mm tank ammunition; Later Leopards, M1A1s smoothbore guns, Challenger 2 rifled bore.
  • Javelin anti-armor systems; New production.
  • Anti-armor rockets;
  • Precision aerial munitions;
  • Approximately 3,600 small arms and more than 23,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
  • Seven tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
  • Eight heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers;
  • Armored bridging systems;
  • Four logistics support vehicles;
  • Trucks and ten trailers to transport heavy equipment;
  • Secure communications equipment;
  • SATCOM terminals and services;
  • Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Listings are becoming less precise (OPSEC).

3389

Zelenskyy is visiting Poland. An in-person visit always seems like a good idea, but risky. I suppose no place is 100% safe for him, though, and he can’t stay hunkered down forever. Turkey and the US are discussing Sweden’s NATO membership.

3390

These items near the bottom of the list may not sound as sexy as things like HIMARS ammo, but are essential for a successful counteroffensive.

3391

What was the timegap between her giving him the statuette and the explosion? How did she manage to get clear in time? Was the bomb even actually in the statuette?

Talk about a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma…

3392

Is this the first time he’s left Ukraine? Mostly world leaders have been going to him.

3393

“Has your luggage ever been out of your possession?”
“Has anyone had access to your luggage since you packed?”
“Did anyone suspicious ask you to give something to somebody else?”

There is a reason TSA asks questions like that.

3394

Didn’t he come to the US last year and address both houses and then had a meeting with President Biden?

Foreign visits by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia.

In February he visited the UK: