Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[Gorsnak]

The Kinzhal isn’t really a hypersonic missile, except in Russian propaganda. I mean, it is, but only in the sense that any ballistic missile is hypersonic. All ballistic missiles since the V-2 reach hypersonic velocities during their boost phase (and then fall to their targets at whatever their terminal velocity is). The Kinzhal is just an Iskander ballistic missile that has been modified to be able to be air-fired by specially modified Mig-31s. Russian propaganda has made a big deal of the Kinzhal, but it’s really not all that. The Patriot system was designed to intercept ballistic missiles. The Kinzhal is an air-launch ballistic missile. That Patriot successfully intercepted Kinzhal is a credit to the system, but it’s not that remarkable.

Actual hypersonic weapons are supposed to sustain hypersonic velocities to their target, and be maneuverable along the way. If you want to know more about this topic, youtuber Perun just released an excellent video on hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic Weapons: Overhyped or Superweapons? - threats, challenges & has the USA fallen behind? - YouTube

[mordecaiB]

@Snarky_Kong

Not all good news for Ukraine today:

That looks more like a fuel explosion than ammunition. Either way, it’s not good news.

[Broomstick]

Um… does that mean the Russians shot their own airplanes down…?

[Snarky_Kong]

That’s the main speculation I’ve seen. Russia getting jumpy about storm shadows and made mistakes.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

It’s amazing that Russia have been fighting for over nine months with almost everything they’ve got to capture this one town and they still haven’t succeeded:

Brady Africk

[aceplace57]

It probably was friendly fire. The Russians are jumpy and nervous.

The Guardian

There are unconfirmed reports that another plane and helicopter has crashed, in what appears to be a disastrous day for Russian aviation. Moscow Telegram channels reported that an SU-35 warplane had been shot down too, together with a second Mi8 helicopter.

Another military helicopter crashed on Friday in Crimea. It was unclear whether the two aircraft and two helicopters were downed on Saturday because of friendly fire, or if the Ukrainians targeted them with missiles.

[smithsb]

Darth Putin
@DarthPutinKGB
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Day 444 of my 3 day war. I warned UK that supplying Storm Shadow missiles would cause escalation so it’s their fault we have started shooting down our aircraft.

I remain a master strategist.

In other wild rumors, it was proposed that it was western air-to-air missiles fired from the recent group of Polish MIG-29s that were specially modified before transfer. (treat this like an offer of a NEW crypto coin).

Me? It was US stealth F-22 no-see-ums. Anything to keep the Orcs guessing.

[aceplace57]

Vindictive bullshit like this only builds anger & support for Ukraine.
CNN feed

Russian missiles targeted the Ukrainian city of Ternopil, home to Ukraine’s Eurovision Song Contest representatives, as the competition was underway on Saturday evening.

Two civilians were hospitalized for burns and shrapnel.

“At exactly the same time that Europe is celebrating music, unity & light at the Eurovision Song Contest, Russia is launching cruise missiles at Ukraine, which is standing up to darkness,” Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense tweeted.

Ukraine won Eurovision last year and it is customary for the winning country to host the next event, but due to the war, the singing contest was held in the UK

Ukraine Eurovision act's city Ternopil attacked before performance

[Alessan]

One thing that’s always baffled me about Russians society is how they consistently confuse brutality and viciousness for competence.

[silenus]

When all you have is a hammer…

[Alessan]

… everything looks like a head.

[FlikTheBlue]

Some European sources estimate that Ukraine has had as few as 15K killed in action so far.

Ukraine lost fewer than 15,000 troops, EU countries' intelligence says

[smithsb]

@Gorsnak

published photos of alleged Storm Shadow debris from Luhansk. I am not sufficiently knowledgeable to comment on whether the debris is actually Storm Shadow

I can’t read the entire NSN but the general category corresponds to Guided Missiles. The country code of 99 matches Great Britain. Along with the printed nomenclature; seems legit.

[Sam_Stone]

I saw an article recently about Ukraine’s latest batch of soldiers being rushed through training quickly to get them into the fight.

That doesn’t seem compatible with only 15,000 personnel losses. If they are mobilizing up new people and rushing them through simplified training, it suggests to me they are short of soldiers. But maybe not.

[bob_2]

@aceplace57

due to the war, the singing contest was held in the UK

<nitpick:
The contest is supposed to be about the songs, which all have to be original. Sadly, it does seem to have become more about the performance on the night than the actual song.

[TroutMan]

@Sam_Stone

That doesn’t seem compatible with only 15,000 personnel losses. If they are mobilizing up new people and rushing them through simplified training, it suggests to me they are short of soldiers. But maybe not.

It could also be the need to rotate soldiers out. Not dead, just exhausted.

[Chronos]

Yeah, someone’s still got to do all the things all those people were doing in peacetime.

[Hypno-Toad]

It looks like Russia lost another two unit commanders, both colonels.

[Love_Rhombus]

Have they checked what they were wearing yesterday? I forget stuff in pockets all the time.

[Askance]

Tens of thousands of them are in training behind the lines, or in other countries.

Essentially it seems to me that roughly half (or not much more) of the Ukrainian armed forces are holding off virtually the whole of Russia’s forces. Once those uncommitted forces are trained up and available to be committed …