Ukraine is reporting they shot down all 18 attacking missiles and drones and that all the damage from falling debris was minor.
It seems there was already a commitment to help with training in “standard NATO techniques”, which seems to imply something short of needing the specific type of plane.
Smaller news, but Belarus’s President Lukashenko is reportedly quite ill. if he dies, does Putin just do a “soft annex” of the whole country, or is it more useful as an “allied but independent” country? I don’t see the immediate advantage in the Ukraine War to taking Belarus. He already has it, really.
I’m seeing multiple videos showing explosions on the ground after lots of SAM launches. Might be a different city at a different time, but I’m skeptical of that. Ukraine lies too. We’ll eventually get more information.
I suppose that depends a lot on who appears as the heir apparent and what that person does in the first week or so. Also on how the populace reacts. Putin certainly has his men high up in their government and they have at least the outlines of a response plan for this eventuality. And have had for years.
Like Putin, Lukashenko has tried very hard to kill all aspects of “civil society”. It remains to be seen if the Belarussian populace is eager to join Russia’s version of the future or Ukraine’s version. The Belarussian military & security apparatus are semi-separate power centers that will have their own opinions as well.
Had Putin never started the war in Ukraine it seems likely to me that post-Lukashenko Belarus would have leaned towards Moscow. Now, there’s a huge wildcard in the middle of the pile. We’ve certainly seen the various 'Stans drift away from Moscow’s orbit as the immediately post-Soviet dictators have aged out. It’s a gingerly movement, but it’s unmistakable which way they’re going.
Ryan (retired military) comments on the destroyed Patriot battery rumor. He points out it consists of several elements spread out over several kilometers. What does a claim of destruction mean? What allegedly got destroyed?
More news should be available in the next few days.
Youtube short. A couple minutes long.
He already had Ukraine before Yanukovych was removed. If Lukashenko dies, we’ll see what lesson Putin took from that.
That’s about the numbers one could expect for typical losses over 14 months of combat. Thing is, the Ukrainians appear to be learning their lessons, and while Russia has certainly made its own adaptations, they don’t seem to be keeping pace with Ukraine’s capacity and willingness to learn from their mistakes. Ruskies seem to want to keep repeating the same mistakes over and over. It may be baked into their organizational mindset.
I wonder if we need an international news discussion thread? Because this bit could be tied to Ukraine or not at all: The CIA wants Russians to contact them with any useful information. If nothing else, it will make Putin more paranoid.
For some reason the link isn’t working for me. I found another link that does here:
CIA posts video asking Russians to share secrets with U.S. spies (nbcnews.com)
Ah, I messed it up in editing! Thanks for the heads up, it should work now, but thanks for yours as well.
A post was merged into an existing topic: Ivan_Denisovich Troll posts
The UK prime minister is making progress on the F-16 coalition. The US needs to get on board.
How much would fighter jets help Ukraine, realistically? I thought the main problem with air power in this war is that both sides are too effective at air defense.
If we waved a magic wand and Ukraine had a nice stockpile of F16s right now, and plenty of pilots to fly them, would they be using them or would Russian air defense be too strong?
You’d probably see a lot more JDAM chucking, but F16s aren’t made to penetrate air defense.
A more important element, most F-16s have better radar that what Ukraine has in its aircraft. Better for hunting incoming cruise missiles, drones and any aircraft entering their territory. Also, access to a full array of western missiles and smart bombs. These have greater range than their existing (dwindling) stocks of Soviet/Russian systems. Capabilities include updating target information while airborne, beyond visual range intercept missiles, better all-weather capability for sensors. Defensive measures are also improved and upgradable. The older Soviet/Russian aircraft - no.
Actually, the F-16 is the current platform for Wild Weasel (SEAD) in the US.
Thanks.
I guess I was just thinking about it lacking stealth characteristics vs the F35.
It does lack stealth, plus it is a particular variant (the F-16CJ/DJ) and the F-35 is going to replace it eventually - all variants of the F-35 can carry the HARM missiles. I’m not sure of when that replacement is going to be complete, though.
Well, part of the Patriot system did get damaged. Hopefully it can be repaired in place.