Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

The numbers are increasing. :wink:

The Guardian blog

My guess is there’s a lot of T-90s among the 213 “Unknown tanks *”. T-80s have a distinct wheel layout (6 in 3 pairs). T-90s share the T-72s wheel layout (6 evenly spaced) and what sets the different T-90 variants apart from each other or the T-72 variants are either hidden (welded rather than cast turret, stronger engine, armored auto-loading carousel, thermals etc.) or subtle things which might be obscured by battle damage or angle of view (exhaust ports, ERA-bricks, SHTORA jammers).

Apart from that, I read that some of the “elite” unit (e.g. 1st Guards Tank Army I think) that was badly mauled around Kyiv and later in the Kharkiv counter offensive were equipped with T-80’s.

The relative supply of T-80s and T-90s could have a lot to do with it. I’m not conversant in what Russia claims are the equipment strengths of its units, nor how that matches reality on the ground.

Do we think these drone attacks on Moscow are “official” Ukrainian attacks (as in they endorsed it) or just done by sympathizers?

Looking like there was a drone strike on Moscow this morning. The Russian Ministry of Defense is reporting 8 drones and all were destroyed or suppressed with electronic warfare. Other sources reporting as many as 32 drones were seen. Sounds like minor damage to a couple of civilian buildings at best, but shows that Ukraine has confidence enough to devote money and resources on long-range symbolic attacks and isn’t completely tied down to defending on the ground anymore.

Prigozhin at his best:

Why the fuck are you allowing these drones to fly to Moscow? Who gives a shit that they are flying to your homes on Rublyovka! Let your houses burn.

And what should ordinary people do when drones with explosives crash into their windows? So as a citizen, I am deeply outraged that these scum sit quietly with their arseholes smeared with expensive creams. And that’s why I think the people have every right to ask them these questions, these bastards.

But I have already warned about this many times, but no one wants to listen. Because I’m angry and I upset bureaucrats who have a great life.

As per usual, Kyiv has remained silent on claiming credit for any drone attacks on Moscow.
It should be noted that things like drone attacks on Moscow and cross border raids in Belgorad far from the action do conveniently constitute a nice strategic distraction in the hours leading up to the launch of the big counter-offensive.

“I feel bad that ordinary Russians are suffering!” Says the man committing war crimes and massacres.

Is putting ‘expensive cream’ on your anus a thing in Russia? (I assume ‘expensive cream’ means something cosmetic as opposed to Preparation H.)

I understood it to be lube but that may say more about me than the blogger.

Seems unlikely that independent actors would have the wherewithal and know-how to put together a fleet of dozens of exploding drones. I think it was the Ukrainian government.

The question on my mind is – who in that upper-class Moscow neighborhood were they targeting?

And this is what might finally get Putin. The worst thing that can happen to a Strongman government is being perceived as weak. If he can’t even defend Moscow, what’s the point in supporting him?

Were I Ukraine, these kinds of attacks would be a big priority.

I agree but they shouldn’t appear to target random civilians. It would be great if they can hit pro Putin oligarchs or defense company bigwigs.

What does Russia hope to accomplish with terror attacks on citizens in Kyiv? Just show the world what ruthless assholes they are? Copy the tactics of WWII Germany against Britain (that worked really well that time, right?)

I think Ukraine should respond by blowing up more tanks, ammunition depots, fuel storage, bridges and rail lines

This is very reminiscent of the US Doolittle raid on Tokyo in Apr 1942.

The physical damage was minimal on the scale of a city or country, as it was expected to be.

But it was a wake-up call for the rank and file Japanese citizen that this shit could get real for them personally. And it also punctured the official story of the invincible homeland. And it rattled, at least a little, the bigwigs of the time. Among the defense bureaucracy a few heads rolled as a result.

OTOH, much as 12/7/1941 enraged a lot of Americans, and 9/11/2001 did the same again, I bet a lot of Japanese citizens were much more pissed at the USA than they were at the Japanese high command the day after Doolittle did his thing.

We can assume many (most?) Muscovites had a similar reaction to Ukrainian temerity. More provincial Russians more in thrall to the rah-rah propaganda will be even more unhappy with Ukraine over this.

None of which should be construed as a reason for Ukraine not to make these sorts of raids. I just offer the caution that the West and Ukraine should not expect this raid, or others like it, to cause a mass uprising of opposition to Putin & his stupid war.

People in the large just don’t react that way to being attacked.

There was a strike yesterday on an airfield in Western Ukraine. It’s far away from the fighting.

Dennys speculated Russia was targeting the planes needed to launch the UK Storm Shadow missiles. It’s obviously not something Ukraine would confirm.

That would explain why this particular airfield was targeted.

Skip to 3:30 in video

Can MiG 29s launch those Storm Shadow missiles?

Dennys mentioned Sukhoi SU-24 bombers. Apparently Ukraine has a few. I hope some survived the attack.

From Wikipedia

Ukrainian Air Force inherited around 120 Su-24s airframes from the Soviet Union. In March 2019, 23 Su-24 were reported in operational status.[88

Doubtful. Storm Shadows are very large, almost 3,000 lbs, which requires a fairly robust platform. Aside from the Su-24 it has been speculated that the big Su-27 air superiority fighters, of which Ukraine still has a few, might also be a potential platform. They’re a much larger plane.

True enough but what are they going to do? Shake their fists harder. Volunteer even more for the meat grinder? Donate money to buy a pop-top tank?