So send them to Wagner group. Solves two problems at once.
Warning for @Snarky_Kong and thread banning.
You must have known this was coming. So why you did this I don’t know.
News snippets: The USA plans to send depleted Uranium shells to Ukraine, and Russia has arrested some defense workers for spying.
The splitting the land corridor has been in the news. It makes strategic sense. But it’s heavily fortified. I’d like to see strike somewhere unexpected and less protected. Similar to what they did near Kharkiv last year.
Hitting some place that’s less fortified, like, say, Luhansk, would likely result in lower casualties and the recapture of more land for Ukraine, but suspect the reason it seems they’re making a drive to the south instead is because leadership understands the western military support clock is ticking on this conflict and Ukraine likely has a limited window for retaking territory, so they’ll opt to direct their combat power towards taking the more strategically important territory now, which is the so-called ‘land bridge’ connecting Crimea.
In military terms, how strategically important is Crimea actually? Will taking it help defeat Russia?
I don’t think it’s a matter of taking Crimea to win the war, but rather of taking Crimea because they consider it to be part of Ukraine and they want it back along with all the other territory Russia has usurped.
Regaining a bunch of muddy farmland accomplishes far less strategically than retaking a much smaller area of towns & cities and river crossings and …
As to messing w Russia’s access to Crimea, that’s an important bit of symbolism. If stalemate occurs w much of the Donbas still in Russian control, but the “land” bridge seriously compromised, that’ll look a lot like Ukraine won. They won’t have won the jackpot, but their geostrategic position after the armistice would be better than before the invasion.
Shame about the destruction and casualties it took to get there, but that’s what happens when a criminal regime wages aggressive war against you.
What makes the ‘land bridge’ strategic is not because of the resources it contains, but rather, its geography. Russia regards it as critically important for control of the Black Sea. That’s why they had a lease agreement with Ukraine to maintain the naval base at Sevastopol, and it’s also the main driver behind their 2014 annexation. Being a peninsula, it’s also isolated. The Kerch Bridge was constructed at great expense to connect the peninsula with the Russian mainland. But the bridge by itself is likely insufficient to keep the peninsula adequately supplied. The land bridge also allows Russia complete control of the Sea of Azov. Ukraine understands all of this and seeks to deny these things to Russia.
Thanks. That seems like quite a good explanation.
And addition to all of that, while the notion of hitting them where they’re weak is nice and all, ultimately you will have to hit them where they’re strong, otherwise they’ll just keep squatting there. Taking a few easy places first might be of value in having them as staging areas, establishing a beachhead, or for artillery emplacements, but at some point, you have to do the heavy lifting.
Exactly. That and starting with Luhansk means having a flank and supply line bordering Russia proper unless they plan on stopping there.
I think it’s main strategic importance would be to unequivocally and undeniably demonstrate to Ukrainians, to Russians, and to the world, that Putin’s Russia is very weak and can’t protect territory it calls its own.
And by ‘it’ - if not evident from context - I meant the Crimean Peninsula.
The “right-hand man” of Ramzan Kadyrov, warlord Head of the Chechen Republic, has reportedly been killed or wounded in Ukraine.
From Kadyrov’s own Telegram account:
Wait - is he asking the Ukrainians to help find him?
I’m sure they’ll get right on that.
If they do find him, I doubt they’re likely to return him in one piece.
Who to trust?
The Russian Lieutenant colonel who Wagner Group captured and tortured a few days ago, after saying that his troops fired on them, says that Wagner tipped off Ukrainian intelligence about Kadyrov’s deputy’s whereabouts, as revenge for Kadyrov threatening to reveal the source of Wagner boss Prigozhin’s wealth:
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1668935030154964993
Trust no one, laugh at everyone.
Seriously. These guys are making this war sound like a spat between middle school kids. “I heard Jenny say she was going to tell Ashley that Agatha told Brienne that Billy was going to tell Bobby about where Susan got her money, so now Susan is planning a surprise party for Jackie, but isn’t going to invite anyone else to make Jackie feel bad.”
All these competing factions are a consequence of Putin’s divide and rule strategy for maintaining power.