What we actually know with visual confirmation:
There are military vehicles in the streets of Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.
Some guys allegedly part of Wagner run around in a forest where there are some splintered trees and a couple of campfires.
I think that’s it.
However, there is some other information that’s not just Prigozhin’s Telegram account spewing shit.
General Surovikin, who has been spoken of positively by Prigozhin, and Deputy Chief of GRU Alekseyev both released videos (seemingly filmed in the same room) in the middle of the night appealing to Wagner members to stand down. This would seem to indicate that something real is going on, not mere psy ops, and that the Kremlin is worried about it. I suppose there is still technically a possibility that it’s some sort of elaborate theatre being put on by Russia, but I would rate that as very unlikely at the moment.
What puzzles me is how someone with a few tens of thousands of soldiers and entirely dependent on the Russian MOD for logistical support thinks he has a realistic shot at toppling Putin’s regime. Putin, in addition to the Army, has Rosgardia at his disposal (think National Guard that answers directly to the President but outside the Army chain of command.) To succeed, he needs a shit-ton of the Army to side with him over Shoigu. Even then, it seems plausible that he’ll just be crushed like a bug.
While I’ve been typing this, several new Prigozhin Telegram posts have shown up. He claims that they’ve crossed the border towards Rostov where the troops let them through. He claims that Gerasimov ordered air strikes on the Wagner column which was intermingled with civilian traffic, but the pilots refused these criminal orders (like Prigozhin gives a flying fuck about civilian casualties).
And just moments ago a video has come out purportedly of a firefight between Wagner and the Army near Rostov.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672408426448658432
Point of clarification, please: fighting alleged near Rostov, or Rostov-on-Don?
Rostov-on-Don, sorry, being lazy. Rostov-not-on-Don is NE of Moscow and much too far away from Ukraine for Prigozhin’s convoy to have reached.
I’m leery of vids, because old ones are often posted and misattributed. I need to see some informed commentary first.
Over at twitter, my man Kamil Galeev characterizes this as a mutiny: “A sizeable force of Wagner troops have left their positions in East Ukraine and entered the Russian region of Rostov Oblast. This is a real mutiny. It is also likely to fail.” Moscow is 1000 km away and a column of Wagners would be sitting ducks for the Russian air force. But failed mutinies tend to feed into existing institutional dysfunction. Thread: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1672399934471954433?s=20
Another pic of Putin and GW Bush, with Prigozhin in attendance:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1672422342914453504?s=20
I think that’s the long-term significance. Once one group does it, it becomes something that other groups can start thinking about…
Lots of vids seemingly from civilians showing tanks and vehicles and soldiers in Rostov-on-Don surrounding the Ministry of Defense there.
Seems legit, correct location, morning hours…but can’t tell if it’s Russian or Wagner.
should all be taken with a grain of salt, of course.
Yup. Aric Toler and Rob Lee are 2 solid video interpreters.
https://twitter.com/AricToler
https://twitter.com/RALee85
Yea, we’re probably following a lot of the same people. So, legit? They still say unverified, but it’s really adding up.
Even if it’s Russia military, they are taking something very seriously.
Anyone have this offensive on their bingo cards?
I mean, people have been referencing 1917 for months, what with the Russian casualty levels and the seeming indifference to those casualty levels by the leadership.
WTF is happening right now and how secure are Russian nukes?
We don’t know, and we don’t know.
Over on twitter, Josh Marshall of TPM (not an expert on this) says, “After claims of a huge military column it just ended up being a laughably paltry few dozens of troops. And then they took over the regional center without opposition. So the situation is a bit hard to predict.”
Also: “This is all pretty bonkers.”
Last I heard the Russians were shipping them to Belarus.
ETA: 10 minutes ago Tom Nichols published a column at The Atlantic. Discusses nukes.
Volodymyr Zelensky and his government must be watching Russian troop movements carefully.
Russia may have to pull some units to deal with Prigozhin. This could get very interesting.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1672471581858181120
Prigozhin is smart by still not openly directing dissent at Putin, but it’s near-impossible to imagine Putin handing over his Minister of Defence and the head of the Russian Armed Forces to Prigozhin. So the target is now Moscow.
Khodorkovski, main opponent in exile, called Russians to support Prigojine’s efforts.
Checkpoints had been installed in Moscow and the population asked not to travel south (i.e near Rostov on Don).
Source: French TV LCI
