Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Talk about “Heap the walls up with our EnglishRussian dead”

The Good Guys remember Maxim 20.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/europe/ukrainian-soldier-survival-bakhmut-intl-hnk/index.html

Nope. This is about increasing the fully-staffed strength, not about replacements for losses. They need to add 170K to the total, plus replace all the losses. Some of which have already been replaced.

From the prewar situation, they’ve tried to boost the headcount total by ~310K (140K before and now 170K more). And along the way they’ve lost (WAG) 300K to combat. That means 610K new recruits needed since the war began. Plus of course the ordinary attrition of a large organization as folks retire, serve out their terms, die or become crippled by car crashes, ordinary peacetime accidents, and natural causes, etc.

Plus the occasional defenestration, mine stepping-upon, or exploding bizjet, but those are a drop in the statistical bucket of blood :grin:

Training? Equipping? Surely, you jest!

To put that in context, the entire population of Russia is 143 million. Which means that 1 person in 65 is currently serving in the military. And that proportion gets a lot higher, when you look at the number of men, or the number of men of the appropriate age range.

I dunno, when they tap into prisons for labor for war it sounds like there’s a shortage of bodies. They may claim they’re increasing the size of their military but names on cemetery stones don’t count.

Are they even allowing people to retire or serve out a term and just go home?

You’re certainly right that there’s likely to be a shortfall of actual headcount vs authorized headcount. I was just making clear that the 170K is not meant as replacements for losses, but is meant as growth. Even if it’s mostly illusory growth.

As corrupt as the Russian Army and MoD in general seem to be, I’d not be surprised to find a nontrivial fraction of their pre-war troops were imaginary with commanders pocketing the pay of the ghost soldiers on the books. It’s a pretty common scam worldwide.

Damned good question. I sure don’t know. My deeper point was simply that there’s more sources of attrition than just combat.

You’re probably correct that they have the equivalent of US DoD’s stop-loss program in effect and damned near nobody is mustered out alive. There does come a point where a decrepit 65yo infantry sergeant is just useless. Russian men don’t have great life expectancies even in peacetime in non-military occupations. Over there a 65yo (same as me) is pretty well run out.

Allegations that Russian soldiers killed two Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered:

This article may not fall directly under “news about the war”; if requested, I will ask that it be moved/deleted. The former president of Ukraine has been barred from leaving the country under allegations that he planned to meet with Hungary’s President Orban. Also, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is having troubles again.

That’s hard to read while I sit in my warm home sipping coffee. No one controls where they’re born.

Link Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'

Many Nepalese are apparently being smuggled or traveling to Russia to join the army. I don’t know how much foreign fighters can ease the burden of staffing the army with Russians. Ukraine’s also allegedly using Nepalese mercenaries as well.

Um, why did they have to be smuggled in and what idiot would pay $9,000 for the privilege?. Are people in Nepal not allowed to leave their country?

Yup. This is Putin’s best hope.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/07/europe/ukraine-western-unity-faltering-putin-intl-cmd/index.html

I think Putin’s going to throw a lot of resources behind a Trump campaign.

According to the article, they can’t sign up for another nation’s army (except Britain’s).

As a follow-up along related lines, they also seem to be sweeping in migrants who are trying to reach the West. Trying to pump up their numbers by any means necessary.

He’s down to prisoners and people smuggled from Nepal. Pretty soon Putin is going to be fielding Girl Scouts with their Mother’s old uniforms.

And a gang of Ukrainian geeks will hack their cookies.