Analysis of the shoot down and cockpit recording from Il-22. It’s still unclear if this was Russian friendly fire or Ukrainian. But two important planes were involved. The Il-22 requested an emergency landing and is probably heavily damaged.
The youtube transcript is helpful in understanding the video.
Thanks for this. I find the videos with commentary very helpful.
I missed this a few days ago but Zelenskyy has claimed an unnamed, recently delivered, Western-delivered long range missile system has allowed it to “down” 26 helicopters and 12 planes in a day. He said this in a press conference though no-one else on the Ukrainian side has claimed this. Could it be ATACMs targeting a Russian airfield?
(the headline writers must be from a family of bakers)
It could be. IMO there’s no particular reason to think it might be though. A kamikaze drone swarm could accomplish the same sorts of results.
I saw this discussed on another forum. Different source, but the conclusion was that Zelensky had spoken about the first days of the war, clickbait sites had taken it out of context because clicks, and then it spread.
155 mile (250km) range. France and the UK have stepped up support since the US faltered.
Maybe this range can significantly target Russian ammo and missile storage?
Guardian daily summary
The British foreign secretary, David Cameron told delegates at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that there is a clear case for frozen Russian assets to be used to help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Belgium does not oppose the confiscation of €280bn worth of frozen Russian central bank assets, but there needs to be a clear mechanism such as using the assets as collateral for Ukraine, according to the prime minister, Alexander De Croo.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said she was “confident” of getting Hungary to drop its veto on a €50bn ($54bn) aid package for Ukraine at a summit in two weeks. Hungary’s rightwing prime minister, Viktor Orbán – Russia’s closest EU ally – refused in December to sign off on the assistance.
Germany has delivered military supplies to Ukraine, including ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, missiles, drones and helmets. It also includes 16 Zetros tanker trucks, eight armoured personnel carriers, 50 mobile satellite terminals, 25 Heidrun reconnaissance drones and 1,840 helmets.
Western companies supplied Russia with critical components worth $2.9bn in the first 10 months of 2023, despite sanctions on Moscow, the Ukrainian president’s office said.
The tech learning curve will effect all nation’s future wars. The US for example would face a much different battlefield than the one we left in Afghanistan 8 years ago.
The adaptation of Drones from surveillance to offensive weapons in Ukraine has been a game changer.
The role of a FO (Forward Observers) for artillery is much different. Probably more dangerous if the FO is spotted by drones or his communications are electronically detected. Talking with experienced Ukrainian FO’s would be helpful to NATO.
The Russian military is getting a painful lesson in 21 century warfare.
Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
From the ISW report linked in the article:
Ukrainian partisans and satellite imagery confirmed that Ukrainian strikes against occupied Crimea in late December 2023 sank a Russian Project 205P Tarantul patrol boat near Sevastopol. The Crimean-based “Atesh” Ukrainian partisan group reported on January 18 that it discovered a sunken Tarantul patrol boat in Hrafska Bay, Sevastopol, and satellite imagery of the Atesh-provided coordinates confirms that the corvette sank between December 28 and 31, 2023.[30] Russian and Crimean occupation officials claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian air and naval drone strikes against Sevastopol on December 28 and 30, 2023.[31] This confirmation of a previously unaccounted-for successful Ukrainian strike indicates that Ukraine‘s recent strike campaign against occupied Crimea may have been more successful than has been confirmed thus far by open sources.[32] Ukrainian forces previously conducted a successful strike campaign against Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) assets in summer 2023 that forced Russian forces to move ships away from its main base in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.[33]
Payback.
Guardian live feed
A drone (singular) taking out 4 storage tanks seems to suggest less than robust facility design, or really indifferent firefighting.
6000m3 in 4 tanks is not a lot of liquid on an industrial scale.
Assuming equal-sized tanks that’s 1500m3 each. That’s a tank ~10m tall by ~10m diameter. Big enough I would not want it to fall on me, but not big compared to significant oil storage facilities.
So a pinprick in terms of oil quantity destroyed, but perhaps significant disruption to whatever else goes on at that facility or whatever else depends on that facility until repairs can be made.
How dare those inferior Ukranians attack within Russia’s border? In Soviet Union Russia war come to you!
Yeah, Russia “accusing” Ukraine of doing these things seems an odd phrasing to me, too. If you didn’t want to be attacked, you shouldn’t have started a war, because that’s what happens in wars.
Cet animal est très méchant - quand on l’attaque, il se défend
Translation: “This animal is very mean: It defends itself when attacked.”
Ironically, a quote from a different Vladimir.
Well, I’ve seen it attributed to Voltaire and Clemenceau, but it also appears to be from an old song, which surprised me.
I’d be surprised if they had that many targets to shoot at in a day, given Russia has long shown a tremendous unwillingness to use many aircraft at all at the front. This sounds like an unvetted claim he repeated without any confirmation.
Russia just doesn’t have the assets for a full court press in the air.
They might once.
As mentioned upthread, the current understanding is that was a quote of Zelenskyy from 2 years ago shortly after the start of the war. which quote somehow got re-injected into the social mediasphere and was duly spread all new and fresh by the bot brigade.
Nobody in the know thinks anything like that happened recently.
Wouldn’t there potentially be Ukrainian civilians at that market? Russia quickly gave nimber of casualties.
Another attack on Russian resouces in response to their attacks in Ukraine.