A Russian air attack on Odessa…while Zelensky and the Greek Prime Minister were there.No victim but explosions near the official convoy.
Lest anyone forget the war is everywhere and a lot hinges on Zelenskyy’s continued survival.
Pucker factor 9.8 for the Greek Prime Minister and a 7 for Zelensky. He’s been a target for two years.
It is concerning that Russia would risk a war with Greece and by extension NATO. I assume Russia is notified when foreign officials visit Ukraine to avoid a catastrophe.
I would have assumed they’re not notified, so as to avoid providing a target list.
I thought I heard that Russia is notified of high-level NATO diplomats visiting Ukraine, so that they won’t accidentally kill them. Any attack on them in that case would have to be on purpose. But I also heard that Russia was not notified about the Greek visit, and the attack was just a regular Russian attack that coincidentally put them within 300 metres of causing NATO to invoke Article 5.
Assuming perfect (or even subjectively adequate) command communications. But breakdowns in command communications are a standard element of the fog of war. Even with good intentions, you can get unfortunate results.
If the Greek PM was killed intentionally as an act of war, that might or might not cause article 5 to be invoked. If he was killed accidentally, it wouldn’t.
Article 5 is invoked after a NATO country has been attacked and needs defending. I thought the US invocation of article 5 after 9/11 was a poor use of it.
If the killing of the Greek PM looked like a presage to the start of a war, then article 5 could be invoked. If it wass just collateral damage of an unrelated strike, I doubt it would trigger NATO involvement
Consider this very similar occurrence:
A undeniably warlike act that was not intended to have the outcome it did.
It was nice that the Chinese understood that at the time.
Moderating: OK, I let this go long enough. Keep this to breaking news for the Russian Invasion and not a history lesson in barely related issues.
No more assumptions or article 5 posts please.
Someone said in another thread that there is now a sense that Ukraine is losing. Forgive me for not scrolling back through this massive thread, but is this the case, generally?
They are certainly losing territory on the ground. Slowly, and with disproportionate cost to the Russians, but yes.
They seem to be winning the air and naval wars, but that’s no consolation for lost ground.
I think it is. Once the air and naval wars reach a tipping point, the ground will, too. Wars aren’t won or lost by moving the lines on the ground.
Funny, I’ve always known it as the opposite: You can drop all the bombs you want, but you can’t win without boots on the ground.
Yes, but the point is, the Russians are only getting those boots on the ground because they’re being backed up by massive airstrikes. When (at this point, not ‘if’) they run out of planes, such advances will largely stop.
It is not that any one thing will be what wins it, the combination of everything gets you to the edge and maybe there is one straw that breaks the camels back, or at least could be attributed to being that straw. ( I’d rant about people finding the single root causes of failures but that’s ain’t for here) . The other aspect is physically taking ground or destroying infrastructure or military hardware may be short term tactical wins , but if Ukraine implodes then that’s as good for Russia as actually taking more ground. ( I am a huge supporter of Ukraine in case it isn’t clear or sounds like I am supporting Russia)
The morale of the people of Ukraine and all the international supporters is crucial , Russia may run out of air craft and bombs and tanks and people in two months , and that has been a constant statement for two years and they still somehow manage to get something in the battle matter how decrepit. What is important for Russia right now is they have wrangled their international conspirators to bang the drum on ‘its futile’ and interfere with support, they have inflicted casualties on Ukraine that are not insignificant to the Ukrainian population, and no matter how much we point and laugh at what Russia fields they do still keep going , the bombs keep falling , and Russia wants Ukrainians and supporters to think’ it will never end’ add on the breaking news of land retaken ( no matter the cost in aircraft and humans to Russia) that could be the thing that brings Ukrainian and international resolve crashing down , they don’t need to sustain this loss rate forever if it they can collapse internal and external support now.
Obviously that’s why we need to continue to support Ukraine , we know for the long game Ukraine will win. However Putins’ useful idiots in congress and elsewhere have opened a window causing a shortage in ammo for Ukraine that has allowed Russia to take ground , even with unsustainable losses , and that along with the perception they just will keep coming forever may be that straw.
Breaking News thread, please stop with the opinion posts that belong elsewhere.
Moderating
Russia’s A-50 early warning fleet status revealed by satellite images
On the tarmac, there were four A-50s in active service, one operational but not currently in military use, and six A-50s with engines removed… [A] notable finding was the inactivity of up to six A-50 aircraft, identified by the absence of engines, suggesting they are being used for parts.
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, but…
My heart dropped when BBC News (on NPR) announced that Pope Francis suggested that Ukraine should essentially surrender. The NYT gift article attached says it was meant as “cease fire and negotiate”.
I’m with Ukraine 100%. Negotiate what exactly? Give those assholes 1/4 of your country so they can re-arm? Should be the other way around.
It might be ok if the end of the war allows Ukraine to join NATO immediately.