Why would Islamic State attack Russia? (Not questioning you, just trying to understand this development)
Islamic militants have attacked Russian civilians before. There was a previous attack, also against a theater or concert hall IIRC, that resulted in numerous deaths when nerve gas was used by the responding police. For obvious reasons finding a link to that incident is difficult at the moment.
Presumably their calculation is that Russia won’t respond in force due to being tied down in Ukraine. And my guess is that they would be right to make that gamble.
Not a surprize, the us warned Russia about a possible attack.
ISIS has been fighting Russia since Russia intervened in Syria. Russia’s methods there are even more brutal than in Ukraine.
The Russian embassy in Kabul was attacked by an ISIS-K suicide bomber in 2022. Yes, ISIS is running rampant in Afghanistan. ISIS essentially declred war on Russia in 2014, and has declared that any Russian assets anywhere are a target. Have a look at Aleppo in Syria for one of the reasons why.
Some good background from 2022:
Tomorrow it may look different, but Moscow now seems to be blaming the wrong party in order to cement internal support for the war with Ukraine:
Why is it not a surprise ?
There was warning.
Ahh I misunderstood, I thought you were saying “it is not surprising that the US issued a warning” rather than “ the event is not a surprise because the US issued a warning”
And the IS-khorasan that claimed the attack is based in the Iran/Afghanistan/Tadjikistan region and formed of former talibans, disgruntled Iranians and Tadjiks extremists. They are Sunnites and so opposed to the Shiites of Iran…Putin support the Shiites so Russia is a target to them.
Putin seems to want to neglect the IS and concentrate on Ukraine. Further claims (and proofs) from IS may render this tactic null.
I expect Putin to fabricate a link to the attack and Ukraine. He can’t resist building support for his war.
I think He will have to strike ISIS too. That’s going to stretch his resources if it widens a conflict.
I’m trying to imagine putin saying with a straight face that he won’t tolerate an attack on civilians. If there was just a way to get his pants to catch fire.
To all, remember, breaking-news thread.
Ukraine says that they’ve destroyed two landing ships. Russia has also fired drones and missiles, one of which entered Poland for a few seconds.
worrysome from Ukraine Conflict Updates | Institute for the Study of War - a source I hold in high regard:
(march 20th)
Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited.
Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized in a March 20 interview with CNBC that Putin is intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research.[7] Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on February 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, an accelerated timeline from NATO’s reported assessment in 2023.
A conventional war with NATO makes no sense whatsoever. We’d squish them like a bug. Nuclear war with NATO makes at least an insane sort of sense, but conventional war doesn’t even make that.
I can think of a situation where NATO would not squish Russia like a bug, but since that’s not breaking news I shan’t elaborate.
EU stepping up through Czech initiative.
Guardian feed
I assume this will be picked up by overseas channels if it hasn’t already, but it is a real eye-opener;