Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

Those are the sort of units that punch way above their weight.

[PhillyGuy]

Should I believe this?

Jets, Dones, and Refineries by Peter Zeihan, April, 17, 2024

The Norwegian government has decided to send some F-16s to Ukraine, joining Denmark, the Netherlands, and others in providing military support. The most important shift we’re seeing in aid sent to Ukraine is that it is intended to be used on Russian infrastructure and military units…within the Russian border.

. . . the Ukrainians are now using one and two tonne bombs to completely obliterate civilian infrastructure and are going after aid workers, including, things like E-m-s services.

And this is really tripped the minds of a lot of people in northern Europe in particular, that this war is now gotten way too serious to have any sort of guardrails on what the Ukrainians can target. The French. Well, they have not weighed in on this topic specifically. They’re now openly discussing when, not whether when French troops are going to be deployed to Ukraine to assist the Ukrainians in a rearguard action.

And we have a number of other countries, especially in the Baltics and in Central Europe, that are also wanting to amp up the European commitment to the war. In part, this is just the recognition that if Ukraine falls, they’re all next, and in part is that the United States has abdicated a degree of leadership . . .

Distorted exaggeration, or is the war moving to Russian soil?

EDIT - From Reuters today:

Oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar suspends operations after Ukraine drone...

Ukraine has been systematically targeting Russian energy infrastructure facilities — despite U.S. requests for it not to do so

[Gyrate]

Biden subtext: “Please don’t drive up oil and gas prices right before the election.”

[Chronos]

Russian oil refineries are the sort of strategic target that Ukraine needs to be hitting to end the war, because those refineries are what’s funding the Russian attack. Of course Ukraine is going after them, whenever and wherever they have the capability.

But is there any sort of cite that they’re going after EMS and aid workers?

[eschereal]

@Chronos

is there any sort of cite that they’re going after EMS and aid workers?

Does it really matter? Russia has been murdering Ukrainian civilians and attacking their infrastructure. If Ukraine is attacking EMS and aid workers, in Donbas, they are not being as psychopathic as the Russians, inasmuch as they are not targeting apartment buildings and shopping centers in, say, Ekaterinburg. If they are doing bad things to non-fighting Russian support personnel in disputed territory, that seems entirely fair and within bounds.

[PhillyGuy]

@Chronos

But is there any sort of cite that they’re going after EMS and aid workers?

Maybe Peter Zeihan thinks this is true:

Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling medical facilities and of killing medical staff

I only discovered Zeihan, and his web presence, today. I posted as I did because I do not know enough to trust him. He poses as a centrist tough guy (with a soft heart) strategic genius who knows that even the best of nations will commit war crimes under the right circumstances.

[DrDeth]

@Chronos

But is there any sort of cite that they’re going after EMS and aid workers?

It is what Russia claims, and thus ipso facto not pravda.

[aceplace57]

They’re urgently needed.

It’s interesting how drones are dramatically changing battlefield tactics. Even the feared US Abrams tanks are becoming vulnerable. The US says they can still be effective with altered tactics.

Pentagon to 'rush' Patriot missiles to Ukraine in $6bn package

Guardian feed

• Ukraine has taken American Abrams M1A1 battle tanks off the frontline, partly because of Russian drone tactics, Pentagon officials have said. The US agreed to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023. Five have been lost to Russian attacks. The proliferation of drones means “there isn’t open ground that you can just drive across without fear of detection”, a senior defence official said on Thursday. “Now, there is a way to do it,” he said. “We’ll work with our Ukrainian partners, and other partners on the ground, to help them think through how they might use that, in that kind of changed environment now, where everything is seen immediately.”
• The Ukrainians have not adopted tactics that could have made the tanks more effective, one of the US defence officials said, such as in combined-arms warfare, training for which was provided by the US in Germany. Russian forces have sustained heavy losses of their own tanks and armoured equipment due to highly effective surveillance and attacks by Ukrainian drone warfare units.

[aceplace57]

I hadn’t heard about this program. The article says Denmark is a major contributor. The goal is to raise $10 billion for Ukrainian weapons production this year. That plus the recent US aid package will be a significant boost for Ukraine.

Canada becomes the second country to commit to funding Ukrainian weapons production

This contribution is part of the “ZBROYARI: Manufacturing Freedom” initiative, a global fundraising campaign aimed at raising $10 billion this year for the production of Ukrainian weaponry.

[Kelevra]

Russia dropped a cluster munition on Odessa. Just another casual Russian war crime.

(((Tendar)))

[JohnT]

Just fyi, I’m headed to Kiev later this June, July. Will let y’all know what I see!

[aceplace57]

More Russian oil refineries hit. Ukraine promised not to hit Russia with US/NATO supplied missiles. They’re keeping their word. Ukraine makes their own drones.

Ukrainian Drones Hit Oil Refineries in Krasnodar and Smolensk!

[aceplace57]

I think the video is referring to this attack on two refineries and an airfield.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/27/europe/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-drone-attack-intl/index.html

[Love_Rhombus]

Russia is allegedly using a chemical weapon against Ukrainian troops to gain ground. Not to sound too cynical, but what’s the downside for Putin? He’s not gonna get punished in any meaningful way.

Russia using chemical choking agents in Ukraine, US says

[PatrickLondon]

£3bn a year from the UK, though I note the hint that we don’t have much in the way of equipment left to donate directly.

Also remains to be seen just how Russia will respond (beyond the usual bluster) to the idea that the UK doesn’t object to its equipment being used on targets inside Russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-cameron-kyiv-promises-ukraine-aid-as-long-it-takes-2024-05-02/

[Love_Rhombus]

UK’s UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron says that Ukraine can use British weapons directly against Russia:

Ukraine war: Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia, says UK's Cameron

[aceplace57]

N Korean missiles are being used against Ukraine. The analysis of them is very surprising and disturbing. They’re sophisticated and use very current Western electronics technology.

This article links them to as an emerging missile supplier. The one statement I disagree with is their assertion that they illicitly procured vital weapons components. I strongly suspect Red China is the supplier.

North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger

Ms Kimachuk works for Conflict Armament Research (CAR), an organisation that retrieves weapons used in war, to work out how they were made. But it wasn’t until after she had finished photographing the wreckage of the missile and her team analysed its hundreds of components, that the most jaw-dropping revelation came.

It was bursting with the latest foreign technology. Most of the electronic parts had been manufactured in the US and Europe over the past few years. There was even a US computer chip made as recently as March 2023. This meant that North Korea had illicitly procured vital weapons components, snuck them into the country, assembled the missile, and shipped it to Russia in secret, where it had then been transported to the frontline and fired - all in a matter of months.

“This was the biggest surprise, that despite being under severe sanctions for almost two decades, North Korea is still managing to get its hands on all it needs to make its weapons, and with extraordinary speed,” said Damien Spleeters, the deputy director at CAR.

[Chronos]

That sure sounds to me like China is making missiles and selling them to Russia, with delivery through North Korea for plausible deniability.

[FlikTheBlue]

@aceplace57

N Korean missiles are being used against Ukraine. The analysis of them is very surprising and disturbing. They’re sophisticated and use very current Western electronics technology.

Has Ukraine used South Korean missiles against Russia? From what I recall, I think South Korea is backfilling stocks to European countries that have sent their own weapons to Ukraine, but it wouldn’t surprise me if some South Korean ones have snuck in. It would be ironic if North Korea and South Korea end up fighting a proxy war in Europe.

[aceplace57]

I’m not sure there is a solution for Ukraine’s lack of troops. The area they’re defending is so large.

Ukraine War: 'If we go home, a lot of inexperienced soldiers will die'

While Russia’s army isn’t a model of modern warfare, it is advancing on multiple parts of the eastern front line. It’s why we’re seeing new Ukrainian trenches being dug 30km (19 miles) back.

The invading forces have learnt tactical lessons and enjoy air superiority. Moscow has also drastically increased weapons production and is mobilising men at a faster rate than Ukraine can.

The sentiment in our wooded trench mirrors the Ukrainian government’s mantra of “fighting for as long as it takes”.