what if the UKR make their way into RU along the border, but get attacked from RU soldiers via the Belarus border …
they’d (UKR) be in a bind:
not shooting back … with all that goes with that
or shooting back, risking Belarus entering the war “to defend themselves against the UKR aggression” … and opening yet another very long front to B-Rus
so, they are really gambling that B-Rus will stay out, as Luka prob. knows that entering a war will prob. be his Ceausescu moment(B-Rus armed forces are thought of being even worse prepared than RU soldiers and they def. do not want to fight)
curious if ISW will have any news on that today or tomorrow … they are normally quite good at vetting information
Practically speaking, Belarus is already in the war anyway. The only meaningful thing they can do is allow Russian troops free access to their territory, which they already are.
Ukraine shouldn’t be wasting precious lives by sending untrained and unprepared soldiers directly to the front. As this article points out, it gets people needlessly killed.
Heartlessly killing thousands of raw conscripts is Russia’s bullshit mistake in this war.
“Poorly trained” is a relative term. They’re not sending people to the front completely untrained, but they’re also not training them as well as they’d like. Because they can’t; they don’t have time.
The troops completing the UK training should be reasonably fit and competent. But even 40,000 a year (linked report already) isn’t enough for this war.
Ukraine probably has their own training camps that’s shorter and more rushed. I haven’t seen any news covering them. It’s restricted information. They’re pushing out cannon fodder. I hate that reality but Ukraine has no other choice. Russia human wave tactics requires a lot of soldiers firing back.
I’d speculate they’ve pulled their best-trained troops out of those desperate-defense fronts (where arguably training makes less difference) and are sending them to the new Kursk front.
Hitler was notorious for blaming his generals for failing to carry out his “very clear” orders, despite conditions, available supplies, troop levels, etc. Autocrats come to believe that their will and their orders are inviolable. “You will take that territory. You will not retreat.”
The news is encouraging that Moscow is rattled by the Kursk incursion. Evacuations are something that can’t be hidden from the Russian people. Their concerns about the war will eventually be felt in the Kremlin.
I’m not sure how the security forces can wave their hands and make this go away. Ukraine has powerful weapons and a trained military. Pushing them out of Kursk won’t be easy.
This is a fairly classic problem in big wars. You need guys now, but were they to get a few months more training, they’d be vastly more effective.
What is happening, to clear up @aceplace57 's confusion, is that some guys are being rushed to plug holes, and some guys are getting the training they need. As it always has been in these things. Even in WWII, Allied troops varied in terms of the training they got. A regular infantryman in the 4th Infantry Division was not the equal of a paratrooper in the 101st.
The Russian State/Media are treating it like they would a natural disaster. Footage of handing out water bottles, blankets, etc. So it’s covered, but no tie the war.
I had at first assumed the Ukraine invasion would help Putin with morale/recruiting, but if they’re just going to pretend it’s not happening I’m not sure how that will work.
That is just a few miles from the bridge over the Kerch strait that has been damaged a few times. You would think the Russians would have really good security around that area.