Alessan
April 28, 2025, 8:31pm
7835
Ukraine’s problem is that it neighbors Russia. Putin is just a typical Russian leader - more effective than some, but that’s about it. When he goes, someone just like him will replace him. It’ll change nothing.
Ukraine still has an effective defense. Russia is using up a lot of their Cold War equipment and ammunition. Imho Russia is inflating how much artillery and armoured vehicles they can still put into service. Their new tactics reflect how bad the situation has become.
But, I agree it’s at a stalemate. Neither side can pursue a effective large-scale counter attack. A new Russian offense is expected this summer.
Over the past two months, the Russians had scaled back their attempt to bring reinforcements across the Oskil, Serhii said, because of heavy losses. As soon as Russian engineering teams build pontoon bridges his battery destroys them, he added. Video shows how three Russian armoured personnel carriers were hit . They sank. Others got stuck on the bank and were finished off by kamikaze drones.
The corpses of Russians soldiers lay around. “Sometimes they collect their dead. Sometimes not. Dogs eat their remains,” Yurii – the artilleryman – said matter-of-factly. He added: “A lot of Russians have been killed. We like this.”
Tactics have changed, Serhii said. The Russians had abandoned big military columns and were sending groups of infantry to the frontline on innovative forms of transport. These included armoured fighting vehicles – “three or four at a time” – motorcycles, quad bikes, golf buggies and civilian cars. “Often they take a position. We counterattack and get it back. It’s back and forth. There’s no significant advance,” he said.
US aid still going on, depends on how the mood in DC is.
The U.S. had not committed to giving Ukraine its F-16s, but images of the type being flown out of Arizona on a Ukrainian An-124 began circulating last week. The non-operational F-16s appear to be the first examples supplied directly to Ukraine from...
Est. reading time: 7 minutes
It will take years to fully establish an effective Ukrainian Air Force. It’s good that the US is still quietly supplying parts and training.
Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Czech President Petr Pavel announced on May 4 that Czechia will work with Ukraine to establish a school to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets outside of Ukraine. [22] Pavel added that Czechia and members of the French- and British-led Coalition of the Willing will train Ukrainian pilots. The US Department of State announced on May 4 that it approved $310.5 million for F-16 training, equipment, and support services for Ukraine.[23] Zelensky stated that the Czech Ammunition Initiative could deliver 1.8 million artillery shells to Ukraine in 2025 and that Ukraine is expecting its allies to deliver three million artillery shells in total this year.[24] Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová stated in April 2025 that the Czech initiative had secured funding for artillery deliveries to Ukraine through Fall 2025.
Zelensky is spoiling Putin’s upcoming parade.
Meanwhile our VE Day parade included a delegation of Ukrainian military in training here (and from NATO countries, which neatly excluded one particular WW2 ally…)
Putin isn’t going to the peace conference and now it may be postponed. I only saw one news link. A postponement may not be accurate.
I hope our President will see this as a major snub. Get Trump really frustrated and angry. Maybe he’ll send more military aid to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy is handling this really well. He’s being as supportive of a peace plan as possible. Hoping Trump will get fed up and understand Putin is treating him like a fool.
Frodo
May 15, 2025, 10:22pm
7842
I wouldn’t hold my breath
I’m beginning to believe Putin can’t negotiate any concessions. His power base might immediately turn on him.
The Russian losses are just staggering.
Link Russian army loses 1,240 troops, three air defense systems in war against Ukraine
The total combat losses of Russian troops from February 24, 2022, to May 14, 2025 , in the war against Ukraine amounted to about 969,370 people, including 1,240 people over the past day.
Also, the Russian army lost 10.804 (+2) tanks, 22.501 (+14) armored combat vehicles, 27.827 (+47) artillery systems, 1.382 (+1) MLRS, 1.165 (+3) air defense systems , 372 (+0) aircraft, and 335 (+0) helicopters, Operational and tactical UAVs - 35.860 (+82), cruise missiles - 3.197 (+0), ships/boats - 28 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), vehicles and tankers - 48.382 (+126), special equipment - 3.884 (+0)
There is no mystery here - Putin simply doesn’t want peace.
Gyrate
May 16, 2025, 10:50am
7845
Yes, Putin is not remotely interested in any concessions of any kind, so what his power base thinks isn’t relevant.
Anyhoo…
If the Russian army comes to the understanding that they’ve been fighting against 2nd tier weapons they might think differently about Putin’s future success.
I think this signals Russia’s plans for the summer offensive.
Ukraine will have to shift defenses to that region. They are already spread thin.
Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast. Putin met with municipal leaders in Kursk Oblast on May 20, during which the head of Glushkovsky Raion, Pavel Zolotarev, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast.[1] Putin asked how many kilometers deep this buffer zone should be, and Zolotarev claimed that Russia should seize “at least Sumy (City)” and implied that Russia should be “bigger.”[2] Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexander Khinshtein later responded to the interaction on his Telegram channel, claiming that his grandfather was from Sumy Oblast, so “this land is not foreign to [him].”[3] Sumy City is roughly 25 kilometers from the international border, and a buffer zone deep enough to include Sumy City would prevent Ukrainian forces from conducting tube artillery and tactical drone strikes against Russian territory. Western and Ukrainian sources reported that the Russian delegation at the May 16 Ukrainian-Russian talks in Istanbul threatened to seize Sumy Oblast in order to create a “security zone.”[4] ISW continues to assess that Russia has territorial aims beyond the oblasts that Russia has already illegally occupied or annexed and that Putin may intend to leverage further advances in Sumy Oblast to demand that Ukraine cede part of Sumy Oblast to Russia during future peace negotiations.
Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term given Russia’s demonstrated inability to rapidly seize even much smaller settlements in Ukraine in the past three years. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on May 19 that elements of the Russian 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (44th AC, LMD) are conducting most of the assaults in the Sumy direction and that elements of the 83rd Separate Airborne (VDV) Brigade are likely also operating in the Sumy direction.[11] Mashovets stated that up to four or five motorized rifle and rifle regiments of the Russian mobilization reserve are also operating in the Sumy direction.
Long overdue. It should increase the range of HIMARS.
Removal of restrictions, which is backed by UK, France and US, improves Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia
I’d go after their bombers with the range limitation removed.
“In particular, [Trump] is not being informed enough about what massive terrorist attacks are being carried out by Ukraine against peaceful Russian cities,”
‘This animal is mean. It defends itself when it’s attacked.’
Asked if he believed the Russians are being disrespectful and if Putin actually wants to end the war, Trump responded, “I can’t tell you that. But I’ll let you know in about two weeks.”
“Within two weeks. We’re going to find out very soon,” he continued. “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not. And if he is, we’ll respond a little bit differently. But it will take about a week and a half, two weeks.”
Two weeks!
Which Russian cities are the peaceful ones, and how have they avoided Putin’s wrath for opposing the war?
Irkutsk, Murmansk, Vladivostok, Yakutsk, Krasnoyarsk, you know, the ones farthest from Ukraine.
If this report is accurate, this is a huge blow dealt by the Ukrainians. And one if the targets hit is claimed to be an AWACS A50.
"Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," a source told the Kyiv Independent.
