Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[aceplace57]

Ukraine is still having some success at the front.

Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 15, 2025 | ISW

Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in the Kupyansk direction as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers acknowledge the severity of the situation for Russian forces. Ukrainian Joint Forces Group Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on December 15 that Ukrainian forces continue clearing operations within Kupyansk and are avoiding engaging in urban combat, and that Russian forces are using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to supply the grouping of around 100 to 200 Russian personnel left within Kupyansk.[13] Trehubov implied that the Russian forces’ logistical situation is complicated in Kupyansk because UAVs have a limited carrying capacity, cannot fly over certain areas, and occasionally drop supplies in a way that exposes Russian positions to Ukrainian forces. A non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kupyansk direction reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated several settlements and nearby forest areas, and that elements of his brigade are operating within northern Kupyansk.[14] The NCO stated that Russian forces continue attempting infiltration missions to reinforce positions in Kupyansk through a gas pipeline, but that Ukrainian forces have blocked the pipeline and have all possible egress points under fire control. Geolocated footage published on December 14 and 15 indicates that Russian forces likely do not hold positions within Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk), contrary to Russian claims of advances in the area.[15]

[dtilque]

Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine strikes tanker in the Mediterranean

How did the drones get there? Probably a Ukrainian ship was nearby.

Anyway, there’s unconfirmed reports that Russian Maj. General Andrey Averyanov, who is responsible for various sabotage and assassinations in Europe, was on the ship and killed in the attack. If true, very good. I like one of the reports that the general was “reportedly demilitarized”. Next they’ll be saying he suffered “rapid unscheduled disassembly”.

[Gorsnak]

“Demilitarized” has been a favourite Ukrainian euphemism for “blowed up real good” throughout the war, due to it being one of Russia’s demands of Ukraine.

[aceplace57]

Ukraine’s Christmas stocking is nicely filled for another year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-welcomes-90-billion-euro-eu-loan-despite-lack-deal-russian-assets-2025-12-19/

The stakes for finding money for Kyiv were high because without the EU’s financial help, Ukraine would run out of money in the second quarter of next year and most likely lose the war to Russia, which the EU fears would bring the threat of Russian aggression against the bloc closer.

“This is significant support that truly strengthens our resilience,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram app after the agreement was reached at a summit of EU leaders.

The decision followed hours of discussions on the proposal for an unprecedented loan based on Russia’s assets, which turned out to be too politically demanding to resolve at this stage. Instead, the EU will borrow cash.

[aceplace57]

New photo confirms Russian tanker Valery Gorchakov is sinking after an drone attack Dec 18.

CNN reports on other December strikes by Ukraine.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1124118-russian-tanker-valery-gorchakov-damaged-by-drones-sinking-near-rostov-on-don
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Ukraine steps up attacks on Russian air bases in bid to combat missile...

At the beginning of the month, an attack on another Crimean airfield – at Saky – led analyst David Axe to comment that “Ukrainian missiles and drones are driving the Russian navy’s Black Sea fighter and bomber regiment into extinction.”

“The steady attrition of Crimea-based Russian warplanes underscores the prowess of Ukraine’s deep-strike drone units,” noted Axe in his Trench Art blog.

The Saky attack destroyed an Su-24, and the full complement of combat planes at the base is now less than half of what it was in 2022, according to analysts.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

Thread by @UAControlMap on Thread Reader App

Interesting summary of 2025 by Ukraine Control Map

In 2025, the war was firmly settled into attritional drone warfare, where Russia decided that they’d save their few remaining vehicles and attempt to advance with manpower, taking and accepting the resultant trade off in personnel casualties.

Warspotting shows equipment losses are about 60% of 2024 (when you factor in lag time and an additional 500 or so to come). Tanks are at 519 this year vs 1139 last, and AFVs are at 1316 this year vs 3073 last. It’s not difficult to see why the personnel casualties have rocketed

Russian infantry losses mounted dramatically reaching approx ~100,000 KIA this year & so many hundreds of thousands wounded, and neither side can manoeuvre freely without catastrophic exposure. Where vehicles are used, they are often met with destruction before they even reach the front.

Last December in 2024 our internal lowest estimate was ~184k KIA total for the war, so you can see what a large increase this year has had.

[Askance]

From today’s Guardian

“Ukraine staged the death of a high-ranked Russian fighting on Kyiv’s side to prevent him being killed on Moscow’s orders and lure out those involved in the plot, Ukrainian military intelligence announced on Thursday. The GUR military intelligence unit said the ruse even netted the $500,000 Russian reward for the “killing” of Denis Kapustin – also known as Denis Nikitin – leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps and “Timur Special Unit”, which had announced on Saturday that Kapustin was killed on the frontline.”

• On Thursday, Kapustin appeared via video link at a briefing with the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov. His assassination, the GUR and Timur unit said, “was ordered by the special services of the aggressor state Russia, which allocated half a million dollars to carry out the crime … As a result of a comprehensive special operation [his life] was preserved, and the circle of individuals was identified: the masterminds within the Russian special services and the perpetrators.”
• The Timur unit announced: “Our side also received a corresponding amount of funds allocated by Russian intelligence agencies for the implementation of this crime.” Budanov said in a video posted online, showing himself and Kapustin: “First of all, Mr Denis, I congratulate you on returning to life. This is always a pleasure. I’m glad that the funds received from ordering your liquidation went to help our fight.”

[Magiver]

a half million DOLLARS?

[Askance]

Sure, no rouble at all!

[Magiver]

Now you’re just putin me on.

[Chronos]

That is a valid question… Was the reward actually in dollars, or was it in some other currency or good with that converted value?

[EllisDee]

If it were in some other currency I would expect it to be near $500k, not exactly $500k. But of course that could just be a reporting issue.

[aceplace57]

This is the first time that I’ve read there’s a firm commitment to a peacekeeping force.

It still requires written documents from England and France. Maybe formal approval in their parliaments?

BBC live feed

• The UK and France would send troops to Ukraine “in the event of a peace deal” with Russia, Prime Minister Keir Starmer says after Paris talks
• Starmer says a “declaration of intent”, signed today in Paris, “paves the way for legal framework under which British, French and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil”
• Ukraine’s President Zelensky calls it as a “huge step forward”, but says it will only be enough “when the war in Ukraine will end”
• Meanwhile US envoy Jared Kushner says today marks “a very, very big milestone” with “real backstops” to ensure a Russian invasion wouldn’t happen again
• Today’s announcement comes after leaders from the so-called Coalition of the Willing met in Paris earlier, to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine

[PatrickLondon]

No doubt Putin will use this as an excuse to reject a deal - the wicked West ganging up to frustrate Russia’s sovereign interests, blablabla.

[Elmer_J.Fudd]

Wasn’t this war about Russia not wanting NATO troops on her border? No way does Putin sign on to this deal.

[Magiver]

Yeah, imagine what it would be like to have multiple NATO countries within 140 miles of St Petersburg.

[DrDeth]

@Elmer_J.Fudd

Wasn’t this war about Russia not wanting NATO troops on her border?

Hardly. It was about Putin wanting the old Russian empire back, but then he found Ukraine a much tougher nut to crack that he anticipated. He thought his “great, unbeatable” Russian army would roll over them in a matter of days, then on to the next victim.

[Chronos]

Regardless, a still-mostly-intact Ukraine with NATO troops guarding the border would still be a quite unpalatable option to Putin.

[Magiver]

Versus the 2 nations that just joined NATO because of it? Sweden and Finland.

I’d say that ship has sailed.

[aceplace57]

The vote comes later? What kind of security guarantee is that for Ukraine?

Ukraine is expecting forces from Britain and France if a peace deal were finalized.

MPs would get vote on troop deployment to Ukraine, says Keir Starmer

Speaking after Britain and France said they would be willing to send troops if there was a peace deal, following discussions at a wider summit in Paris, Starmer was pressed by Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, as to why he was not making a full Commons statement.

In response, Starmer said the debate and vote would happen in the event troops were being deployed, at which point there would be details about how many would be sent.