Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

And I wonder how many of these conscripted convicts are going to “die” in Ukraine. There was a lot more equipment and uniforms for the Russian army on paper. How many of their unwilling forces are going “be killed” that way as well?

Yeah, platoons of brave Russian soldiers led by bright young officers like Lieutenant Kijé

interesting (commercial) tangent here …

Russian crude exports (shipments, excludes pipelines) in terms of volume - quite interesting, as its not russian reported numbers, but independently verifiable maritime information

that’s a solid 90% reduction vs. historic pre-war numbers

Putin seems to really convert russia into an economic Venezuela / Iran / Libanon

The recent Russian conscription does prove the casualties were high. Solid numbers are hard to com by, of course.

And also the deserters, of which Russia has had plenty.

Well crap. Russia gets its way again.

I’ve started reading the transcript. The hosts accent is just too thick. Does he have a known military background?

The tank situation seems like one in which Germany was the best candidate by far, but did not want to commit alone due to their historic reliance on Russian fuel. So, the US and UK threw some in first to show that Germany would not be alone. Next up, Ukraine will be requesting modern fighter aircraft. What is Macrons number again?

This is the first signed deal I’ve seen that includes manufacturing. It’s an important step in strengthening NATO.

Guardian Blog

Pro-Russian milblogger Rybar, whose maps have appeared in this thread, concedes that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) lost half their personnel by September last year. According to Wikipedia, in 2015 there were 45,000 troops in the VDV.

I don’t think I’ve heard much about the VDV since the very beginning or the war when they destroyed Antonov airport while trying to capture it. I remember they were said to have had some pretty high losses at the time. Totally wasted lives since they couldn’t use or hold the airport.

But would Russians dare bomb themselves and claim Ukraine did it?

Oddly, most of the victims of the bomb outside St. Basil’s were high-ranking dissidents. So, maybe, you know, two birds.

Fancy that.

Interesting video I ran across today: apparently AAA fire over Britain was not only next to useless but may have caused more civilian deaths than German bombs:

I still have no idea what Russia/Putin thinks they gain from throwing more men into a war for which defeat is essentially guaranteed. This war was lost for Russia in the very first weeks, Feb-March 2022, when the initial thrust towards Kyiv failed. From mid-March onwards, Ukrainian victory has been guaranteed, it’s just a matter of how much time and how many deaths.

it might be some form of “if you cant convince, then confuse” …

iow … murking the waters so you still can appear dangerous even if it takes you the better part of 6 months to conquer a small town like bakhmut

Maybe he just had a bad day. The dude’s been leading a country at war for nearly a year. He’s visibly older, I expect he’s exhausted, and maybe he’s just having a off moment.

…or…

Or maybe a bit of both.

Yes, well, no one is great at defending against missiles and rockets. There are some defenses, but they’re not perfect.

Sumy will probably be a major battle in the up coming Russian counter offensive. Russia still wants Kharkiv.

I think at this point it’s a matter of survival for Putin. “Winning” for him now would be staying in power and simply continuing to be able to inflict a lot of casualties (civilian or military) until such time as western support evaporates. That’s not entirely an irrational approach. Sure, western democracies are all in at the moment, but we’re famously fickle over time, and he’s gambling that the Russian population’s propensity to absorb misery exceeds the west’s financial commitment over time.

I’m not judging at all, just answering the question, IMO, as to why Zelensky may be looking a bit down these days.

Hard to be upbeat when your citizens are being killed, even if you are preventing more from being killed.