Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

I don’t blame them for being nervous. I’d be nervous too if I was right next to Putin.

It’s about F’ing time.

I’m sure Ukraine understands there would be no military benefit to attacking Russian cities. It would only enrage the people and escalate the war.

Preemptive strikes on key bases and formations of troops before they attack does make sense.

Man, this is still a very restricted policy. I quoted the restriction. Ukraine is still fighting with one hand tied behind their back.

Call it “asymmetrical cultural warfare:”

A.I. really is a scary thing if misused, and it’s very likely that we’ll never get control of it in my lifetime. Seeing your own face saying things you’ve never said has to be a very unsettling feeling.

I have sympathy for the civilians. But vacationing in a known war zone is never going to end well. 4 deaths doesn’t sound like a deliberate targeting of the beach. The video doesn’t show a direct bomb impact. Ukraine probably struck a military target close to the beach.

Does Ukraine now have the ability to strike the Kerch Bridge? It would take a coordinated attack with drones and ATACMS to overwhelm Air defenses.

Ukraine is striking a lot of targets in Crimea. I recall reading the supply chain has shifted to the land brdge in occupied Ukrainian territory. The Kerch Bridge is less important. It is a symbol of Russian Pride and achievement.

This may be stretching the definition of regional, but it is an interesting analysis nonetheless:

The images I’ve look like the missile dropped cluster munitions. Fortunately for the beach goers, they mostly fell in the water.

And yeah, vacationing in a war zone is dumb.

I can easily imagine the Russian Tourist bureau focusing on the beautiful Crimean beaches :parasol_on_ground: and downplayinhg the war as a minor nuisance.

It’s my understanding that the Russian Media is under tight control and war news is heavily restricted.

And incidents like this help leak the information to at least some of the rich and connected that yes, the war does exist, and Russia is getting its ass kicked.

I figure it’s not directly connected to the war, so it belongs here.

It’s not new information, but of course Russian disinformation is being used against Zelenskyy and his wife (and in favor of Trump, it seems). It’s some clever and crazy stuff.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán again exercises his role as the EU’s loose gun.

First, in Kyiv, asks Ukraine to unilaterally declare a ceasefire

Then he suddenly travels to Moscow, to meet Putin, in defiance of the rest of the EU

Freezing the conflict at the current frontline would please Putin no end, of course. Should Ukraine accept a ceasefire then end it at some point in the future they’d look like warmongers in that resumption of the conflict, and in many many countries the government could not justify continuing to support Ukraine to their electorate.

The UK’s new government is espousing their commitment to Ukraine.

The amount of things that count as criticism of the Russian government is chilling. I wonder if they’re erasing people from photos yet again?

Hungary, as always, continues to be the absolute worst.

Well, no, the top two absolute worst spots have to go to Russia and Iran (in whichever order-- Hard to tell which one is a puppet of the other, these days), and China probably ranks ahead of Hungary, too.

But yeah, Hungary is pretty bad.

To be clear, in my head I meant “worst country in the EU.”

Is there any talk of expelling Hungary from the EU? Or is that even possible?

That’s not really a thing.

They can be punished financially, though, by withholding certain monies that get distributed between members.

There are a few dozen different European international governmental organizations, though, and it probably is possible to kick them out of some of them. Or form a new No-HomersHungary Club without them.

I still expect an abrupt Russian collapse and end to the war. Putin can only prop up the economy for so long.

Russia has sustained the war for longer than I expected. Lets hope they fold soon. The EU seems convinced Russia economy is hurting.

Link Russia is lying about its economic strength: sanctions are working – and we need more | Eight European finance ministers | The Guardian