Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

Time for speculation.

How are the Russians getting around login security. :thinking: I would expect they are creating an account. There might be hardware level encryption keys. Heck, even old Tech like Direc TV has a card key they mail to subscribers. The company can shut off receiver access remotely and mail a new card key.

I would expect Starlink to have something more sophisticated. They should be able to remotely track the location of the terminals.

Starlink needs to improve Security. Brick the Russian terminals.

Starlink is credited for helping to save Ukraine in in the early days of the Russian invasion. Communication is crucial to coordinate command centers with the troops.

Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War

It appears you do not understand that Elmo and trump work for Putin. It makes a lot more sense once you notice that feature of the current bigwig landscape.

I know Musk is controlling the use of Starlink. Apparently they can turn it on in specific regions.

It seems very suspicious that Russians can use the terminals without Musk’s approval.

There would be overlap within the Starlink service area. If Ukraine is operating receivers at gps location A, then another receiver at location B, 100 km away would also have Starlink service.

Starlink Receivers 100 km or more inside Russia shouldn’t work.

Link https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/elon-musk-starlink-ukraine.html

Sinking most of the Russian fleet would be a de-escalation. The only way this war is going to end is by destroying the aggressor’s ability to wage war.

Not sure if there’s a better thread for this, but there’s a flurry of stories that Putin has been suffering from itching for a couple of days, and one of his close security aides used for keeping an eye on the Interior Ministry has been found dead at the bottom of his stairs.May be nothing, but odd

When you’re a member of the inner circle and you’re not even respected enough to be thrown from a high window and are instead just shoved down some stairs, your final thought is probably something along the lines of “How far from Grace I have fallen!” In addition to “Oh Shit!” of course. And “Ouch!”

Berlin Process Summit concluded without saying much about Volodymyr Zelensky Victory Plan.

Ukraine did get a promise of more aide support.

I guess it’s a win that Zelensky wasn’t outright rejected publicly.

Although, Biden’s statement is so oblique and vauge. Let me translate, It’s Too bad your facing a tough winter. See ya next Spring.

Man! Those Russians are fucking clumsy.

What he meant was:

    Any commitment my Administration might make today won’t materialize until after the election, and probably after the inauguration. You, Zelenskyy, would be a fool to trust that my idiot countrymen won’t elect a Russian stooge who reverses that commitment immediately upon taking power.

    I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that’s the reality of the situation.

Sad that its come to that, but here we are.

The only suspicious thing here is that people still think this is happening without Musk‘s tacit approval.

Why send in your precious troops when you can simply annex a neighboring country through good old-fashioned corruption, then send your troops in that way? Surround Ukraine with your allies and strangle them.

This pact with Russia could be very dangerous for S Korea and international peace.

I’m surprised China is allowing Russia to meddle in their backyard.

Ukraine is already struggling to find soldiers. Now they potentially have to defend against 10,000 N Koreans.

China and Russia are allies in the Ukraine war. That they’d let a mutually friendly third party ally join the fun is the polar opposite of surprising. It’s 100% predictable and furthermore 100% expected.

What are you even thinking?

To think that 70 years ago it was North Korea on the back foot in a war they started, and calling in help from Russia and China.

China is not Russia’s ally. They’re exploiting Russia, not helping them. Being the last major country willing to do business with Russia means that they can get some great deals, and that’s what they care about. If anything, they’re probably rooting for Ukraine, since the weaker Russia gets, the more desparate, and the more willing to settle for deals even more in China’s favor.

By the same token, they probably consider it very convenient for a bunch of North Korean troops to go off and die somewhere else. North Korea is a pawn of theirs, of course, but one that’s sometimes difficult to control, and the more their military power is worn down, the less likely they are to do something embarrassing to China.

None of which, of course, is to say that China is anything resembling a “good guy”. They’re looking out for their own interests first, foremost, hindmost, and only, with no regard one way or the other for what that means for the rest of the world.

I had the impression China has always tried to keep a lid on N Korea. Keep them from doing something stupid like attacking Seoul. North Korean Saber rattling is fine and serves China’s interests.

Russia could easily upset the balance of power by sending $$$$ and weapons to N Korea.

The Armistice Agreement has lasted since July 27, 1953. It’s only a cease fire that’s held 71 years, 2 months, 23 days. (according to a date calculator)

It’s concerning to see Putin screw around with N Korea. Especially if he sees war on the Korean Peninsula as a diversion for NATO while Russia expands it’s territory.

Seeing the war in Ukraine expand is everyones concern.

NATO may have to send troops to Ukraine if N Korea commits too many troops. It’s a dangerous spiral to all out war.

I was describing the worst case scenario.

Hopefully sending a few thousand N Korean troops is just a stunt.

If they send 60,000 or more, that will break the stalemate in Ukraine. Then, NATO will face a crisis. Russia and N Korea could threaten the entire regions security.

North Korea’s alignment with Russia is already raising concerns.
North Korean troops preparing to help Russia's war in Ukraine a 'grave security threat,' says South Korea

In a very wide regional aspect. There are many countries allying to make a more multi polar world on various levels. China and Russia are very much allied in this. Other countries are allied to keep a more uni polar world. Ukraine is a battleground for this militarily. There are political, economical, intelligence battlegrounds in many other places ongoing.
I think at one time Russia/USSR used to train North Korean troops. They recently signed military and economic agreements again. It would seem Kursk region would be an ideal area to demonstrate live situation training. It is on Russian territory, so skirting some violations of laws. But I doubt that very large numbers of North Korean basic troops will be involved at any point. Training or even using grunt level foreign personnel in large number is more of a pain than an asset. But it is a good situation to train higher level prospects.
Ukraine is definitely a focal point of the Uni/Multi polar battle. But it pays to pull back and take a wide view of the action. A world war is going on at various levels of intensity and methods.

Putin didn’t invade Ukraine because of some philosophical disagreement with the West about a unipolar vs multi polar world. He invaded because of his delusions about recreating the Russian empire, and his belief that Ukraine is not a real nation, Ukrainian not a real language, culture, or people, and that it was unjustly separated from Russia. That’s why Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine and murder thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian civilians.

You’re right that the word “ally” was poorly chosen on my part. Your overall explanation does a better job than I did.

China is out for China first, last, and always. As most nations are, but the Chinese seem especially good at not letting others’ interests leaven their actions. They are exploiting Russia but at the same time the stuff the Chinese are selling to the Russians does assist Russia in prosecuting their war of aggression against Ukraine.

As you say, the Chinese prefer a nice simmering little stalemate of a war that keeps Russia busy while grinding it down, and simultaneously letting China make money and exert influence through their ongoing sales of [whatever] to Moscow. Moscow can bleed for many years at this rate and the Chinese are only to happy to collect the blood for sale.

Which also means that from the West’s perspective, China’s goals are much closer to alignment with Russia’s (continued warfare) than with the West’s (peace and return of stolen territory). In that sense the two make common cause against the West.


Overall @Kedikat makes some good points. This bit is particularly apt:

There is an ongoing planet-wide battle for who will define the shape of our world. In some places it’s very obvious to the layman what with all the explosions and destruction. In other places it’s much less obvious. But the reality is we are locked in an eternal struggle with the forces of totalitarianism, gangsterism, and militarism.