For those who do not want to click the link:
Russia warned the U.S. 30 minutes before the launch of its Oreshnik missile against targets in Dnipro on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news outlet TASS.
deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh […] confirmed that the U.S. was notified “briefly” before the launch.
A very Russian snub.
Delenda est Rossia!
Today I learned, Not all things are created equal.
I never heard of THAAD until this morning.
I wonder if there’s a security concern? A Russian special forces raid could steal the Tech?
I think there’s concern about that making the US a direct belligerent and were currently pretty escalation averse.
It’s refreshing to hear a Foreign leader express the threat from Russia in blunt terms.
Interesting interview that covers financial commitments to fund Ukraine and long-range plans.
This interesting article is from Estonia and talks about the national defense that Europe has to beef up in the future, taking Trump’s attitude towards Putin into consideration.
Let us hope against reason that this has nothing to do with the bombs and the incendiary bombs Russia has been sending on DHL cargo planes lately:
What a long list. The attacks have significantly ramped up sonce August.
Has Ukraine launched any significant attacks on Russia’s energy grid?
It might be wasteful for Ukraine to use their limited supply of missiles. Russia has expended a significant number for months with limited success.
Ukraine hit another military target with ATACMS.
They seem to be picking targets carefully.
Perhaps their supply is very limited?
ISW also reported on the airfield strike.
Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
Link American-Made ATACMS Rain Down On A Front-Line Russian Air Base
I wish I could recall the source, but I understand the number of long range ATACMS is in the neighborhood of around 50. They used a dozen of them on that recent underground command post attack. A high value target, so I get why they did it.
Nightime video of the airfield strike. Its the first yime I’ve seen how the cluster bombs scatter and explode.
Video is less than 3 mins
Rebels are reattempting to wrestle power away from President Assad in Syria who was supported by Russia via brutal bombing campaigns.
All of Assad’s supporters have been weakened. Hezbolah and Iran have been weakened by Israel and of course Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine.
The Russians launched airstrikes last night but this is a distraction Russia does not need.
Russia has used its force to control or repress many regions around its area of influence (such as Georgia, Kazakhstan and parts of the middle east and Africa), and the bigger nightmare for Russia is that some of these regions start agitating and forcing Putin to make some difficult choices. This uprising could well be a small flame that is easily snuffed out but it might also be the first of a number of dominos.
Imperial overreach is an ironclad certified bitch. OTOH there are lots of ways to delay the inevitable if you’re mostly there to vandalize, not profiteer.
The 15th-19th century Europeans were mostly about profiteering. The Russians have always been about vandalism, and only vandalism.
If Putin did nothing about Syria and just let the chips fall where they may, even if it led to the Assad regime’s downfall, what’s the worst that could happen? It sounds like Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and the rise or fall of Syria would affect Russia little except in some lost reputation, although Moscow’s reputation was already in the gutter anyway.
The Doper abovethread mentioned that it could lead to dominoes falling but it sounds like Russia’s only true and pressing interest at the moment is Ukraine.
Loss of the Tartus naval base would hurt.
There are military, political connections with Iran and Syria that would be lost. They are not directly with Russia, but have a military regional effect.
There are lots of places around the world in Russia’s sphere of influence but not under their direct control, and others under direct control, but where that control is weaker than it might be. If anti-Russia forces succeed in one of them, that would encourage anti-Russia forces in others. It’d be especially significant if parts of the Russian hinterlands tried to break away, because that’s where they’re mostly getting troops from (it’s politically untenable to put too much pressure on the rich in Moscow).
I don’t believe this is true, otherwise Putin would not be the richest man on Earth, as he probably is. And the Wagner group has been about robbing and stealing from its inception, and has been very successful at it. Russians use vandalismus on the one hand as and end (see → sadism and psychopathology), but also as a means to enrich themselves.
In the meantime, don’t lose sight of what is happening in Georgia:
It is noteworthy how successful Putin has become at manipulating other countries elections: the Brexit referendum, Trump I, the rise of Marine LePen, the rise of the AfD, the rise of Georgina Meloni, the rise of Milei, the rise of Victor Orbán, Trump II, this month’s elections in Romania… I could go on. Damn, either he is very good, or we are stupid. I am afraid the latter comes closer to the truth: our leaders do not have what it takes.
My brother used to say “What America needs is better Americans”. Our problem is not, or at least not entirely, our leaders.
I’d argue bro’s aphorism applies just as well to most democracies, whether Asian, African, Oceania, the Americas, or Europe.
Western-style progressive democratic technocratic society cannot survive 23rd Century tech & communications with 14th Century peasant-level thinking by half the populace. Hell it may not survive early 21st Century tech & comms.
I agree with all of this and shall be adopting some of this phrasing for myself.
This is not entirely consistent with international laws of war or, in my opinion, common sense or basic decency.
It is the responsibility of a belligerent state to minimize civilian casualties to the greatest possible extent given legitimate military aims. Ukraine is entitled to defend itself and in so doing, reasonable military aims may present the danger of killing civilians. Ukraine has a legal and moral responsibility to avoid civilian casualties as much as reasonably possible.
Deliberately killing the civilian worker is absolutely illegal and immoral. Attempting to destroy factories and other facilities engaged in military production MAY be legal, but only to the extent necessary for legitimate military aims. If you may demonstrate that it is necessary for Ukraine to destroy a tank factory, and such an attack is a reasonable use of military power for Ukraine to defend itself, then it can be justifiable. Destroying such a factory may kill civilians, though a military should, if possible, attempt to do so at a time when casualties will be minimized. But it is not necessarily the case that a facility engaging in production related to military things is a reasonably meaningful target.
I strongly suspect that had Iraq found a way to blow up a bus of people en route to work at a munitions factory in Houston in 2003, this would not have been met with a great deal of sympathy.
Yes. This is disturbingly similar to the events that led to Russia invading Ukraine in 2014, when Yanukovych declined a deal with the EU in favor of a trade deal with Russia.
So far the protests in Georgia have not caused a change in government, but it could happen. That could lead to Russia invading Georgia, like it did with Ukraine. The Russian military is overextended now, but that could change shortly if Trump ends support for Ukraine.
This isn’t regional, but Assad may be in trouble again. Rebels have entered Aleppo for the first time in years. Putin rescued Assad in 2015, and he may feel the need to do it again if things get serious enough in Syria. Again, the Russian military is overextended, but that may change in January.