The Tartus port is pretty strategically important to Russia. Warm water and don’t have to transit the Bosporus.
Those qualifiers like “as much as reasonably possible” and “given legitimate military aims” are doing a lot of work in that post, and countries at war always interpret those qualifiers very differently than those of us sitting in armchairs in a country that’s currently (mostly) at peace.
No one said this stuff was easy. But a blanket “we can kill whatever civilians we want by claiming they’re helping the war effort” ain’t it. ALL civilians who pay taxes are helping the war effort, and so I just cannot subscribe to that.
Historically, the Russian ruling class has mostly focused on stealing from the Russian people, not from the rest of the world.
Ideally, no. But in practice, that’s exactly what the folks in WWII who didn’t get tried for war crimes did. Today, standards have changed, but even today, I don’t think anyone would give Ukraine any guff over targeting a munitions factory at some time other than the graveyard shift.
Seriously, it’s a murky area in the murky laws of war. Many sides’ fig leaves are rather worm-holey
Killing civilians terrorist-style simply to reduce the enemy headcount is illegal. Blowing up a factory making weapons components while it’s full of civilian employees is OK.
Putting anti-aircraft missiles atop an occupied hospital or school is illegal. Blowing up those missile installations is … a darn good question, but probably legal.
Etc.
War’s an ugly biz.
Russia just approved spending 1/3 of its budget on military:
Russia running out of Soviet era military equipment so now they need to either make it or buy it. And all that extra defence spending will play havoc with Russia’s inflationary problems. I read somewhere that Russia can keep this up for another year. Maybe if the price of oil goes up things will ease for them.
But as I said before, both sides are positioning themselves as favourably as possible before potential negotiations. So we are in a strange period right now where everything is being ratcheted up at a much faster pace than normal.
That’s true, but doesn’t make it right.
Even in a dictatorship spooling up defence production ain’t easy. There are things you can make more of pretty quickly, but some things aren’t just stuff you whomp together in a week or a month.
Latest US aid package to Ukraine from US defense stocks. Includes anti-personnel mines scattered from artillery shells (ADAM) and ground vehicles (Volcano). Both varieties self-destruct after battery rundown.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Stinger missiles;
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Non-persistent land mines;
Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms and ammunition;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
I read just yesterday about the Wagner Group in Africa. They are sending billions of dollars to Russia from all the gold mining.
Russia really is just pure evil.
I didn’t say that. I said:
And I disagree that a civilian who is in a factory is themselves a legitimate target without any sort of caveat on that. That is a opening to being allowed to kill civilians without restriction.
It’s not as if they’re being targeted themselves. They are targets in the sense that they are in a factory that is being attacked. Or do you think that munitions/aircraft/etc. factories are not legitimate targets? Can they not be attacked if there are any civilians in them?
A civilian working in a factory shouldn’t be a target, but they may be regarded as acceptable collateral damage when the factory itself is targeted.
Zactly.
Said another way, putting civilian workers in your munitions plant is not a magic shield that makes your munitions production immune from attack.
The Youtube channels usually focus on small Ukrainian victories. Ukraine’s capture of territory in Kursk is uplifting.
The bigger picture is disturbing. Russia’s unrelenting approach that ignores casualties is steadily working.
Russia’s scorched earth policy has served them well in the past. It helped defeat Germany in WWII.
It now appears possible that the port will eventually be attacked or abandoned. Certainly it appears likely that Russian warships are leaving the once safe port. It is expected that the warships will sail from the Mediterranean to the Baltic. Possibly they will seek temporary safe harbour in Algeria or Libya on the way.
Outlook Not Good For Russia
It now appears possible that the port will eventually be attacked or abandoned. Certainly it appears likely that Russian warships are leaving the once safe port. It is expected that the warships will sail from the Mediterranean to the Baltic. Possibly they will seek temporary safe harbour in Algeria or Libya on the way.If Tartus remains in Russian control then it is likely to be used for any Russian heavy reinforcements. These will take weeks to arrive however so initial movements are more likely by air. Until February 2024 Russia maintained regular ship transits to the Black Sea, nicknamed the ‘Syrian Express’. These stopped however, likely because of the increased threat of Ukrainian surface drones (USVs) in the Black Sea. Now ships have to sail around Europe to the Baltic. If Russia is desperate to reinforce Syria, or evacuate heavy equipment, it may attempt the Black Sea route again. If so, it will expose itself to Ukraine’s surface drones.
This war has so many conflicting reports.
There are many reported successes. There are more strategic targets that Ukraine’s missiles can reach.
Yet Russia keeps inching along taking Ukrainian territory. Ukraine’s front line troops are reportedly exhausted.
WTH, yeah Trump will make it all better.
No, it’s not. All it’s getting them is territory. This war will not be won nor lost on territory.