Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

Well, it depends on how you see it:

…and who last talked to trump, assuming he even remembers what he was told.

The document was drawn up by Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s envoy, together with Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff. Speculation based on the use of language in the plan suggests it may have been written in Russian and later translated into English.

America’s reputation has already buried itself in the ground, and is busily tunneling straight down through the crust, and has already reached the Mohorovicic Discontinuity.

And in an unexpected link to the xkcd thread next door, it just pierced a balrog’s wing.

I expect that if this pro-Russia peace plan gets signed, trump will walk in waving some paper and proclaiming “Peace in our Time!”.

Chamberlain, in whatever level of Hell he is in, must be looking forward to the company.

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

Why?

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.

Taken straight from Hitlers demands for Czechoslovakia.

Well, this doesn’t look good:

I was hoping that it was just “clowns acting like clowns”, but if so, I’m not sure why Ukraine would say that they agree to the proposal with only “minor details” to change. The deal on the table was terrible, with lots of Ukranians land being given up including unoccupied land. It needs a heck of a lot more than “minor details” to be changed before it seems remotely acceptable.

Maybe they’re just trying to get the Russians to publically reject the deal which might piss off Trump enough to renew support for Ukraine? I really hope so, but that feels like cope.

One Ukrainian official deeply involved in negotiations told The Independent’s Sam Kiley that the US appeared to have agreed to a document set out by Europe’s allies in Geneva over the weekend – not a US plan.

The official in Zelensky’s office said that if the deal was “the framework from Geneva, we’re okay. It’s not a bad framework to work further”.

According to this, if any deal has been reached, or is close to being reached, it’s decidedly not the garbage Putin-Trump plan.

I think this is still likely nonsense, in that it’s mostly diplomacy-speak for “we’re working on it and don’t want to be seen as a barrier to a peace deal”.

Zelensky is racking up the frequent flyer miles. He’ll be sleeping in the Lincoln bedroom with the pillow cases and towels monogrammed with a Z.

I hope the Z monogramm is meant as a joke, though I wouldn’t put it past trump to actually do it. Just his style. Except he is too ignorant to know anything about Russian military symbols:

I was being ironic. Z for Russian markings during the invasion and also the first letter of Zelensky’s last name.

I’m not sure regularly meeting with Trump is good strategy. Putin maintains a distance and that seems to work for Russian interests.

I’ve read 2nd hand reports that meetings between Trump and Zelensky get heated and loud. We saw a little of that in the oval office disagreement where Vance tried bullying Zelensky.

Well, we dont know what the new deal includes, so until then, let us not jump to conclusions.

Right.

Russia often increases attacks whenever peace negotiations are held. I guess they see it as incentive to capitulate.

The reports aren’t mentioning any interceptions by Patriots.

Guardian Live

On the PBS NewsHour today they said that one of the open issues is whether Ukraine will cede any land to Russia. Really? That’s one of the little details that has yet to be worked out?

If that’s the case, they’re nowhere near a peace agreement.

Yep

That more or less is the critical part- I think Ukraine will have to give up Crimea, it is not part of the historical borders.

trumps plan was similar to Chamberlain’s- give Putin everything he wants, and declare “peace in our time!”

Don’t forget Putin or his successor will invade again and grab more territory withon a decade. It doesn’t matter how much Ukrainian territory is forfeited this time.

NATO would have to recreate the force that prevented an invasion into West Germany. Highly trained and well armed. One of the divisions redeployed in the First Gulf War. It was understood attacking the NATO forces would be a trip wire that required NATO to react.

Unfortunately the Ukrainian border is huge and I highly doubt any of the NATO countries would put that many soldiers at risk or pay the costs to deploy them.

I wonder if the Korean Armistice Agreement would work? That war has never ended. It’s just stalled. But, it does require a peace keeping force.

Interesting that Steve Witkoff has never visited Ukraine. You’d think that would be a priority. And very cozy with the Russians.

I am not sure at all if anyone after Putin will have the same crazy idea of rebuilding the Russian Empire. After all nothing was done in the some 20+ years after Ukraine achieved independence. It took until 2014,

The Georgians would like a word.

I suspect whoever follows Putin will pick someplace easier next time. Maybe Estonia.

Even if NATO gets broken up, invading Estonia would get the nordics, poland, uk, and France directly in the fight. Russia would get fucked up.

I hope the mods don’t mind me posting this long quote.

This is a transcript of an Oct 14 phone call lasting just over 5 minutes between Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, and Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senior foreign-policy adviser.

[phone rings]

Steve Witkoff: Hi Yuri.

Yuri Ushakov: Yeah Steve hi, how are you?

SW: Good Yuri. How you doing?

YU: I am ok. Congratulations my friend.

SW: Thank you.

YU: You made a great job. Just a great job. Thank you so much. Thank you, thank you.

SW: Thank you Yuri and thanks for your support. I know your country supported it and I thank you.

YU: Yes, yes, yes. Yes. You know that’s why we suspend the organization of first Russian-Arabic summit.

SW: Yes.

YU: Yeah, because we think that you are making the real job there in the region.

SW: Well listen. I am going to tell you something. I think, I think if we can get the Russia-Ukraine thing solved, everybody’ll be jumping for joy.

YU: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you need to solve only one problem. [laughs]

SW: What?

YU: Russian-Ukrainian war.

SW: I know! How do we get that solved?

YU: My friend, I just want your advice. Do you think that it will be useful if our bosses will talk on the phone?

SW: Yes, I do.

YU: You do. And when you think it could be possible?

SW: I think as soon as you suggest, my guy is ready to do it.

YU: Ok, ok.

SW: Yuri, Yuri, here’s what I would do. My recommendation.

YU: Yes, please.

SW: I would make the call and just reiterate that you congratulate the president on this achievement, that you supported it, you supported it, that you respect that he is a man of peace and you’re just, you’re really glad to have seen it happen. So I would say that. I think from that it’s going to be a really good call. Because — let me tell you what I told the President. I told the president that you - that the Russian Federation has always wanted a peace deal. That’s my belief. I told the president I believe that. And I believe the question is — the issue is is that we have two nations that are having a hard time coming to a compromise and when we do, we’re going to have a peace deal. I’m even thinking that maybe we set out like a 20-point peace proposal, just like we did in Gaza. We put a 20-point Trump plan together that was 20 points for peace and I’m thinking maybe we do the same thing with you. My point is this…

YU: Ok, ok my friend. I think that very point our leaders could discuss. Hey Steve, I agree with you that he will congratulate, he will say that Mr. Trump is a real peace man and so and so. That he will say.

SW: But here’s what I think would be amazing.

YU: Ok, ok.

SW: What if, what if… hear me out…

YU: I will discuss that with my boss and then I come back to you. Ok?

SW: Yeah because listen to what I’m saying. I just want you to say, maybe just to say this to President Putin, because you know I have the deepest respect for President Putin.

YU: Yes, Yes.

SW: Maybe he says to President Trump: you know, Steve and Yuri discussed a very similar 20-point plan to peace and that could be something that we think might move the needle a little bit, we’re open to those sorts of things — to explore what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done. Now, me to you, I know what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done: Donetsk and maybe a land swap somewhere. But I’m saying instead of talking like that, let’s talk more hopefully because I think we’re going to get to a deal here. And I think Yuri, the president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal.

YU: I see…

SW: …so if we can create that opportunity that after this I talked to Yuri and we had a conversation I think that could lead to big stuff.

YU: Ok, that sounds good. Sounds good.

SW: And here’s one more thing: Zelenskiy is coming to the White House on Friday.

YU: I know that. [chuckles]

SW: I will go to that meeting because they want me there, but I think if possible we have the call with your boss before that Friday meeting.

YU: Before, before — yeah?

SW: Correct.

YU: Ok, ok. I got your advice. So I discuss that with my boss and then I come back to you, ok?

SW: Ok Yuri, I’ll speak to you soon.

YU: Great, great. Thank you so much. Thanks you.

SW: Bye, bye.

YU: Bye.

[Call Ends]

Source: Bloomberg

Reuters reported that Witkoff later met an economic adviser to Putin Kirill Dmitriev, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, in Miami alongside Trump’s Jared Kushner.

The US becoming a Russian vassal state was not on my 21st century bingo card.