Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

I believe that simply means that Ukraine has not claimed autorship for this attack and the investigators have no proof.
Probably because Ukraine does not want the publicity (because of Trump, I imagine, who is ready and willing to “ease”, i.e. lift sanctions on Russia - of course he is - but also even on Iran, where he is having a war excursion, because he is so frightened of gas price increases. So better not anger him, Ukraine seems to think, and we know why they do).
And Russia has not granted access to the damaged ship for reasons I can imagine, including denyability of the shadow fleet, working and living conditions of the crew, real extent of the damage, and a general and pervasive culture of secrecy and lying.
The relevant people will find out who it was and find proof, eventually. Until then a serious newspaper states: it is unclear.
But yes, we know who it was. Good. Keep it up!

Give a Russian soldier a pair of shoes with heated insoles and his feet will be warm for a day. Give a Russian soldier a pair of shoes with heated insoles and 1.5 grams of TNT and his feet will be warm forever:

Ukraine made the decision to launch multiple attacks on both Baltic and Black Sea port facilities in recent days. These facilities are critical to Russia’s ability to ship oil and gas - their principle means of generating tax revenues to fund their war.

Fire Reported After Ukrainian Strike on Ust-Luga Port - The Moscow Times

It can’t be a coincidence they’re doing this during a time when Trump’s actions have caused the Straits of Hormuz to be closed by Iran. Ukraine isn’t screwing up the global oil supply. Or rather, the US-Iran conflict is impacting world oil prices far more so.

It seems to me that Ukraine wants to deny Russia the opportunity to profiteer on the current world oil market by selling and shipping their product when much of the rest of the world can’t.

Sound strategy, although it will contribute to the world market tightening up further.

Yup, Russia isn’t cashing in on the oil boom like the way it hoped it would.

Trump is now threatening to pull the USA out of NATO. Fortunately, Congress passed legislation in 2023 specifically to prevent him from being able to do such a thing, but there may still be loopholes he can use.

The biggest loophole is simply him doing it, law or no, and daring Congress to stop him.

I don’t think the law can force him to attend meetings or joint exercises, so he can like de facto pull out?

A lot of other NATO countries buy American equipment to ensure compatability. If America is no longer in NATO what’s to stop them spending their NATO money on French or Swedish Jets etc? Will the American arms companies be happy about that?

Quite, if things got that far. Increasing our expenditure on defence inevitably gives rise to pressure to expand our own productive capacity, whether individually by nation, or in various collective arrangements.

As a factual footnote, France withdrew from the NATO military command structure 60 years ago, while remaining a member politically.

I think more NATO countries are going to do just that anyway, whether the US stays in or not.

Tilly has now been sentenced in absentia to 8 1/2 years of prison. German language report:

Which only forces him not to travel to countries who might extradite to Russia, e.g. a cruise down the Danube touching at Belgrade would be inadvisable.

An example of Tilly’s carnival floats:

And you learn something new every day. I didn’t know there were any nations where carnival was celebrated on Monday, rather than Tuesday.

In Cologne they celebrate, for lack of a better word, a whole week:

Street carnival, a week-long street festival, also called “the crazy days”, takes place between Fat Thursday (Weiberfastnacht) and Ash Wednesday (Aschermittwoch). The highlight of carnival is Rose Monday (Rosenmontag), two days before Ash Wednesday.

That is from the English wikiarticle on Cologne Carnival, and it falls way short of reality. Crazy days, they claim is the correct translation of tolle Tage? Berserk bonkers round the clock comatose drinking with libidinous desinhibition crancked to eleven comes closer. I was there once, when I was young. Never again, I tell you. That was too much even for young, fit me.

Pretty sure that is already happening. Boosted by rumors that the US controls kill switches in various military hardware we’ve sold to other countries.

Meanwhile, there’s a crucial general election in Hungary tomorrow. Will that unblock relations within the EU and free up more support for Ukraine?

It was disgusting to see Vance campaigning for Orban.

The IDU sticks together in their quest to bring fascism and dictators to every corner of the world.

Yes, although I don’t know enough about Hungary to know if Vance’s presence could backfire. I believe that in the majority of countries, most voters dislike foreigners telling them who to vote for.

Maybe even more disgusting and concerning is Trump essentially promising to send Hungary some of my tax dollars if Orban wins:

Trump promises economic support to Orbán

Extremely disgusting. I should have thrown in this link in my last post:

See:

Trump and Vance happily smearing Ukraine to save Orbán