Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

Russia are using drones to hunt down individuals - not just military but civilians, for terror purposes.

They trails optic fibres up to 20km long so they can’t be jammed. Story above details how one was hunting a boy and his family, he managed to grab and break the fibre disabling the drone.

So they are absolutely suitable for assassinations, flying nap of the earth to the target.

Just another way that Russia is psychologically spreading the war around the area to noncombatants. I guess they’re trying to strain relations between Ukraine and other countries.

The nature of jamming is that it’s a lot easier to confuse a receiver into having no idea where it is, than it is to confuse a receiver into thinking it’s specifically [here] when it’s really [there].

IOW, the Russians can fairly easily cause a a Ukrainian drone to be lost and wandering aimlessly. The cannot easily direct it specifically into Estonian territory.

They might have. But IMO that’s not the way to bet.

Agreed, but even a small disruption can be useful.

"Earlier this month, two Ukrainian drones hit an empty oil storage site in Latvia. Ukraine said this was the result of electronic jamming by Russia.

A similar incursion was reported by Estonia and Latvia in March."

For sure anyone who lives adjacent to a shooting war is unhappy about spillover effects. Whether it’s refugees, black marketing, loss of black marketing, or stray munitions.

In this case I think it’s safe to say that no matter whose name is on the munition, all the neighbors blame Russia for all of the spillover effects. Hardening the resolve of the folks you might wish to invade next is not actually a smart play.

Is this going to be a repeat of the Eighty Years War between the Netherlands and Hapsburg Spain? Or does modern industrial war have built-in limitations that just can’t go beyond six years at most?

We’ve sort of moved that part of the discussion over here:

I’ve quoted you and responded there

They could, however, focus their efforts on confusing drones close to other countries’ territories, in the hopes that some of them will randomly wander over the border.

Year 4 and still itching for Article 5 to be invoked…

Why? That would just cost more lives.

Letting the war drag on is costing more lives, too. The faster this ends, the better.

How many lives have been lost in attacks on neighboring NATO countries during this conflict? Article 5 doesn’t apply to Ukraine or Russia.

I think I remember a story about some farmer in Moldova getting hit by a stray missile back in the early days of the war. But even if my recollection is correct, Moldova isn’t in NATO. As far as I recall, there hasn’t been any loss of lives in NATO countries due to the war (excluding any NATO citizens that went as mercenaries and ended up dying in Russia or Ukraine).